TCG Card Investor  ·  Weekly Briefing

TCG Card Investor

Weekly market intelligence on the Pokemon TCG

Vol. 2026 · Issue No. 23  ·  September 19 – 26, 2026

Hey friend, welcome to the hobby.

The Big Story

The futuristic rarity Mew EX opened at $1,158 on release day and hit $104 within five days, a 91% collapse that dwarfs the typical 40-50% first-week drop for any modern set. Three more 30th Celebration product waves have not yet released, and the November Ultra Premium Collections will flood the market with classic collection packs, meaning prices have further to fall. Meanwhile, a roughly 3 million-unit Prismatic Evolutions ETB reprint wave is expected to arrive around Cyber Monday, with at least one creator projecting prices will breach $90 before the floor is in.

Key Market Trends

1.30th Celebration singles in freefall with more supply waves still incoming. Futuristic rarity cards dropped 86-91% in the first five days post-release, special illustration rares fell 53-75%, and illustration rares crashed 70-90%, all described as unprecedented versus the typical 40-50% first-week decline. The Sleeping Mew SIR, the set's top chase card, launched at $200 and is already down roughly 23% to $150 after just one week. Three additional product waves plus the November Ultra Premium Collection releases have not yet hit shelves, and creators expect continued price pressure across all rarity tiers.
Danny Phantump 07:24  ·  It Was Never A Phase Cards 01:14  ·  Danny Phantump 04:35
2.Prismatic Evolutions ETBs facing a 3 million-unit reprint wave with no floor in sight. Multiple creators confirm a final Prismatic Evolutions print run of approximately 25 million packs, yielding close to 3 million ETBs expected around Cyber Monday. ETB prices have already fallen from a $200 all-time high to roughly $130-$140 currently, with at least one creator projecting a drop into the $90s before the bottom is established. The incoming supply is drawing direct comparisons to Crown Zenith ETBs, which collapsed before eventually recovering.
AnonTCG 16:43  ·  It Was Never A Phase Cards 00:37  ·  Alpha Investments 10:48  ·  The Poke Plumber 06:50
3.Vintage low-pop cards posting historic gains while modern sealed slides 10-40%. Legendary Collection reverse holo Charizard PSA 10 has risen from $11,400 to $575,000 over three years, a PSA 10 Gyarados from the same set sold for $384,000, and Gold Star Torchic PSA 10 reached $2.7 million. The Legendary Collection reverse holo Gengar has only 11 PSA 10 copies in existence, and grading economics make that population nearly static. Simultaneously, modern sealed product is down 10-40% depending on the set, with creators drawing cautious parallels to COVID-era speculation at the high end.
Ketchum All Collectibles 02:16  ·  Top 10 Pokemon 03:04  ·  Collect Pokemon 08:07  ·  It Was Never A Phase Cards 07:01
4.Sword and Shield era booster boxes flagged as undervalued by multiple creators. Brilliant Stars booster boxes are trading in the $400-$525 range and Fusion Strike booster boxes around $850, levels that multiple creators are actively buying at. The thesis draws on historical precedent: Vivid Voltage boxes crashed from COVID highs near $250 to $90-$100 before recovering to roughly $300, and Sun and Moon secondary-market listings have already thinned from 30-40 copies per set to roughly 5-10, signaling tightening supply ahead of a potential run.
The Poke Plumber 03:49  ·  PokeNE 12:19  ·  The Poke Plumber 04:21
5.30th Anniversary Ultra Premium Collections pre-selling at 3-4x MSRP on a historically weak precedent. The Umbreon variant is pre-selling at approximately $719 and the Espeon at $566, both well above the $179.99 MSRP, but historical data from past Ultra Premium Collections is bearish: the Charizard UPC was clearanced at Target for $90-$110 within months of release, and promo singles from past sets have dropped 55-60% or more in their first year. Creators note the current pre-order market is a thin, restricted-seller environment that inflates apparent prices before broad retail supply arrives.
Danny Phantump 07:02  ·  It Was Never A Phase Cards 04:10
6.Black Bolt and White Flare ETBs up 80-88% on the year but facing a 1.5 million-unit reprint each. Black Bolt ETBs peaked at $180 and sit around $165 (from an $88 base), while White Flare ETBs peaked at $155 and sit around $148 (from an $82 base), with booster bundles for both sets up roughly 91-93% on the year. However, a reprint of over 1.5 million ETBs of each set is expected around Black Friday, with one creator projecting prices will fall to the $70-$80 range once that supply arrives.
It Was Never A Phase Cards 04:18  ·  AnonTCG 19:39  ·  AnonTCG 16:43

Consensus Calls

BUYSword and Shield era booster boxes (Brilliant Stars around $500, Fusion Strike around $850) as a long-term hold, dollar-cost averaging on any further weakness. Multiple creators are actively purchasing at these levels, citing historical boom-bust-recovery cycles in older eras and thinning secondary-market supply.
BUYPrismatic Evolutions ETBs only if and when the incoming reprint wave pushes prices into the $90s or below, not at current $130-$140 levels. Scale in gradually over multiple months rather than committing all capital at once.
AVOIDAvoid buying 30th Celebration singles at current prices. Futuristic rarities have already crashed 86-91% but three more product waves and the November Ultra Premium Collection releases will add significant supply, pushing prices lower across all rarity tiers.
AVOIDDo not pay current pre-order prices of $566-$719 for 30th Anniversary Ultra Premium Collections. Historical precedent from the Charizard and Celebrations UPCs shows promo singles and sealed product routinely bottom out 6-12 months post-release, offering far cheaper entry points on both the sealed product and individual promo cards.
AVOIDAvoid chasing vintage Pokemon cards at current all-time highs. Multiple creators flag price action reminiscent of COVID-era speculation, with weak PSA 10 slabs still clearing at full grade pricing and a surge in long-time hobbyists seeking to liquidate collections.

If you found this useful, forward to a fellow collector or investor. Sharing helps the briefing reach the right audience.

Quote of the Week

“Strategies that worked in the 2022-2024 bull run will not work going forward.”

— Nostalgia Nomics  ·  07:20

Section 01

Market Commentary

Per-creator notes from market-commentary channels. Each section reflects one channel's published view; consensus across all channels is summarized in the briefing above.

From Alpha Investments

Being Wrong about the Past.

Sep 23, 2026  ·  38m 09s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] Rudy reflects on a decade of cardboard investing, arguing that his biggest opportunity cost was choosing Magic over Pokemon Black and White and XY era product. He estimates that $500K invested in Pokemon instead of Magic masters sets could be worth $20-30 million today. Despite that, he maintains that Magic will outperform Pokemon going forward on a percentage basis.

Datapoints

  • Rudy estimates that $500K invested in Pokemon Black and White and XY era sealed product at the time he was buying Magic masters sets would be worth approximately $20-30 million today, versus roughly $2 million for the same capital in Magic masters product. 12:00
  • Many LGS stores are currently being kept afloat by non-Pokemon products, collection buying, and smaller TCGs rather than Pokemon sealed, as margins on new Pokemon releases are thin and require months to years of holding for small returns. 14:03
  • Rudy notes that Pokemon 30th anniversary product is profitable for stores and initial buyers on release waves, but margins compress quickly and future reprints historically cause prices to spike, providing a safety net against market crashes. 15:29

Recommendations

HOLDMagic TCG sealed product over Pokemon sealed going forward, as Rudy believes Magic will continue to outperform Pokemon on a percentage-return basis. 36:58

View Source  →  YouTube

Pokemon 30....Collapsed...?

Sep 22, 2026  ·  1h 6m

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] Rudy covers several Pokemon market dynamics: Prismatic Evolutions ETBs have fallen roughly 40% from their all-time high of $200 and are still being reprinted; Pokemon 30th Anniversary ETBs are holding at $180-plus despite heavy supply; ME345 booster boxes have firmed 5-15% off their lows; and Sword and Shield era sets are flat to down 20% year-over-year, presenting potential opportunity.

Datapoints

  • Prismatic Evolutions ETBs peaked near $200, then declined through $180, $170, $160, $150, $140, and are now around $130, roughly 40% off all-time highs, with distributors still receiving new reprint pallets. 10:48
  • ME345 (Scarlet and Violet base era) booster boxes have firmed up 5-15% off their lows despite ETB reprint pressure, recovering faster than expected. 44:22
  • Pokemon 30th Anniversary ETBs are holding at $180-plus with tax on TCG Player and eBay, with sell-through rates described as astronomical rather than dropping to the $120-$140 range typical of a release-window dump. 47:28

Recommendations

BUYPrismatic Evolutions ETBs on the continued price collapse, but scale in gradually over 90 days rather than all at once given ongoing volatility. 32:32
BUYME345 booster boxes on the dip, as prices have already firmed 5-15% off lows and the ETB-driven downward pressure appears to have stabilized. 1:05:16
AVOIDavoid chasing Pokemon 30th Anniversary ETBs at $180-200 for investment purposes, as the risk-reward is unattractive for long-term holders and the easy-money phase of the Pokemon market has passed. 39:05

View Source  →  YouTube

From Nostalgia Nomics

Pokemon And Sports Hobby Talk With Chasing Cardboard!

Sep 25, 2026  ·  49m 42s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] In a wide-ranging hobby conversation, the hosts touch on Pokemon market conditions, noting that scalpers are camping out overnight for Surging Sparks booster boxes at Target and that weak PSA 10s are still selling at full 10 pricing during the current boom. One host expresses concern that the market cannot sustain current momentum, citing a surge in collection-liquidation inquiries over the prior six weeks.

Datapoints

  • Scalpers were camping out 24 hours in advance at Target locations just to secure one Surging Sparks booster box, with the profit motive being roughly $100 per box. 19:00
  • During the current boom, Pokemon PSA 10 slabs that collectors consider 'weak tens' are still auctioning at full PSA 10 pricing, suggesting the general buying public is purchasing the grade rather than scrutinizing card condition. 15:51
  • One host reported receiving more emails in the prior six weeks from long-time hobbyists wanting to sell their collections, citing a belief the market has peaked, as well as from buyers who are severely upside down on breaks and need to liquidate. 20:24

View Source  →  YouTube

Pokemon Investing Strategy Changing 2026-2027

Sep 23, 2026  ·  22m 05s

Investment Thesis

Nostalgia Nomics argues the Pokemon market is entering a more strategic, slower-paced phase over the next 6-12 months. Vintage slabs face likely corrections while the Pokemon Company continues aggressive reprinting of modern sets. He warns that strategies that worked in the 2022-2024 bull run will not work going forward, urging holders to be selective, patient, and prepared for 10-30% drawdowns on out-of-print modern sets.

Datapoints

  • Prismatic Evolutions is receiving another reprint; the creator expects ETB prices to correct but hold in the $100-$120 range. 07:20
  • Evolving Skies booster boxes are now seeing listings and sales in the low $2,000s, and Crown Zenith ETBs are hovering around $300 and at risk of falling below that level. 07:52
  • Historical precedent from the 2021-2022 cycle shows that out-of-print modern sets that did not receive reprints saw roughly 10-20% corrections at most, while sets still in print that received reprints dropped 50% or more. 12:41

Recommendations

BUYDollar-cost average into reprinted sets like Prismatic Evolutions and Destined Rivals when they dip, rather than chasing new releases that may get printed aggressively like Phantasmal Flames and Ascended Heroes. 15:33
HOLDLong-term holders of out-of-print modern sets like Evolving Skies and Scarlet & Violet 151 should generally do nothing rather than panic-sell, as transaction costs, taxes, and re-entry risk make selling and buying back a poor trade. 09:55
AVOIDAvoid selling older out-of-print sets that have already dipped 10-20%, as those sets are likely near the bottom of their correction and further downside is limited based on historical cycles. 12:00

View Source  →  YouTube

Pokemon Investing Stopped Working...

Sep 21, 2026  ·  12m 47s

Investment Thesis

Nostalgia Nomics warns of broad stagnation and price drops across modern and ultra-modern Pokemon TCG products, driven by supply bottlenecks on Celebrations, capital rotating into crypto, and upcoming reprints. He remains long-term bullish on Evolving Skies, Scarlet & Violet 151, Crown Zenith, and Prismatic Evolutions but cautions against any short-term flipping strategy in the current environment.

Datapoints

  • Scarlet & Violet 151 ETBs have fallen to approximately $455 from highs around $660 in May, while the Ultra Premium Collection has also dropped from a peak near $1,200, though it held above $1,000 for an extended period. 04:35
  • The Scarlet & Violet 151 special illustration rare PSA 10 Charizard sold at auction for $1,240, down sharply from over $2,000 just months prior; most other recent auctions are still closing in the $1,300-$1,400 range. 05:22
  • Crown Zenith ETBs are struggling to stay above $300, with multiple 100% positive-feedback sellers now listing in the low $300s, reflecting falling demand and rising seller supply. Prismatic Evolutions Super Premium Collections have also dropped under $250. 05:59
  • A confirmed distribution-level reprint of Prismatic Evolutions ETBs is coming, expected next month per the creator's distributor contacts, likely to push market prices lower as sellers try to offload existing inventory. 07:04

Recommendations

BUYEvolving Skies booster boxes if available around $2,100, as the creator views this as a strong entry point for a long-term hold targeting $5,000-$10,000 per box. 04:29
BUYPrismatic Evolutions ETBs into any price drop caused by the upcoming reprint, dollar-cost averaging for a minimum three-to-five year hold. 07:46
HOLDCelebrations 30th Anniversary ETBs acquired via GameStop pre-orders; wait for the next wave of ETBs to bring prices down to the $100-$150 range before adding more. 11:09

View Source  →  YouTube

From AnonTCG

This week's Pokémon, Magic the Gathering, One Piece and other TCG Distribution Update!

Sep 21, 2026  ·  23m 30s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] AnonTCG reports a surprise distribution drop of the Unova Heavy Hitter Premium Collection (six Black Bolt, six White Flare packs plus promos) with a five-day order turnaround. He anticipates a massive Black Bolt and White Flare ETB reprint of over 1.5 million units each, plus roughly 25 million packs of Prismatic Evolutions ETBs, all arriving late October through Black Friday, which he frames as a buying opportunity when prices dip below $100.

Datapoints

  • The Unova Heavy Hitter Premium Collection (six White Flare packs, six Black Bolt packs, and four promos including Victini and Zekrom) hit distribution on Thursday with orders due by Monday, a five-day turnaround that was completely unexpected during the 30th anniversary period. 18:52
  • A massive Black Bolt and White Flare ETB reprint is anticipated, with the creator estimating over 1.5 million ETBs of each set, expected to arrive around Black Friday; approximately 20 million packs of Black Bolt and White Flare ETBs and 25 million packs of Prismatic Evolutions ETBs are expected to come to market. 19:39
  • The creator projects that as Prismatic Evolutions and Destined Rivals ETBs drop from three digits to two digits under maximum supply conditions, Prismatic Evolutions ETBs bought at sub-$100 could exceed $200 by end of 2027. 21:14

Recommendations

BUYPrismatic Evolutions ETBs when the incoming reprint wave pushes prices below $100, as the creator explicitly frames this supply peak as the optimal accumulation window. 20:42
BUYDestined Rivals ETBs when prices drop to two digits alongside the Prismatic Evolutions reprint wave, per the creator's explicit accumulation call. 20:42

View Source  →  YouTube

Pokémon and Flesh and Blood News Updates! - Yes you read that right

Sep 20, 2026  ·  22m 14s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] AnonTCG covers several Pokemon TCG market developments: the 30th Anniversary set is seeing strong price resilience due to low bot activity, scarce supply, and a premium pack experience; Destined Rivals ETBs face continued price pressure from an incoming 1.5 million-unit reprint wave; Prismatic Evolutions ETBs are set for a similar flood of roughly 3 million units; and Black Bolt and White Flare ETBs of approximately 1.5 million each are expected to push prices down to the $70-$80 range.

Datapoints

  • Target reportedly sold 100,000 30th Anniversary ETBs and a further ~50,000 units of other product, with no significant restock expected soon; loose packs are trading around $16.50-$17.59 each on the secondary market, and TCGPlayer currently shows roughly 1,000 packs listed with ~400 selling per day. 06:39
  • Destined Rivals ETBs are seeing daily sell-through of only 61 units (a weekly high on a Saturday), and an additional ~20 million packs are being printed that will produce roughly 1.5 million more ETBs, expected to push prices into the $80-$90 range. 14:37
  • Prismatic Evolutions is receiving a final print run of approximately 25 million packs, yielding close to 3 million ETBs to be distributed through big-box stores around Cyber Monday; Black Bolt and White Flare are each expected to receive roughly 1.5 million ETBs from a 17.5 million total pack print run, with prices projected to fall to $70-$80. 16:43

Recommendations

BUYPrismatic Evolutions ETBs if and when prices drop into the $90s, as the creator explicitly states they would buy at that level and considers it a superior buy to Destined Rivals. 17:29
SELLPrismatic Evolutions ETBs now, ahead of the incoming ~3 million-unit ETB wave that the creator expects to crush prices. 16:55
AVOIDAvoid buying Destined Rivals ETBs at current prices; the creator says it will be dead money for at least another 18 months as continued heavy reprinting suppresses the market. 17:45

View Source  →  YouTube

From Collect Pokemon

Why is vintage pokemon cards booming?

Sep 25, 2026  ·  21m 45s

Investment Thesis

Collect Pokemon argues that the vintage Pokemon card market is booming due to a combination of ultra-low PSA 10 populations, reduced grading incentives after PSA eliminated bulk tiers, and a new wave of wealthy collectors entering the hobby from the top end. Legendary Collection is highlighted as a prime example: iconic enough to be recognized, yet scarce enough in high grade to serve as a genuine status flex.

Datapoints

  • A common Pikachu from Boundary Crossing (non-holo) graded PSA 10 sells for approximately $1,400, while the raw card is worth around $5. 05:53
  • The Legendary Collection reverse holo Gengar has only 11 PSA 10 copies in existence, and grading fees of roughly $60 against a PSA 6 or 7 sale price of $400-$500 make regrading economically unattractive, keeping the PSA 10 population static. 08:07
  • Legendary Collection booster boxes were largely opened during the first hype cycle roughly five years ago by YouTubers doing box breaks, meaning very few sealed boxes are believed to remain in circulation. 09:00

Recommendations

HOLDVintage low-pop PSA 10 cards such as Legendary Collection graded copies; the creator explicitly advises not selling at $1,000, $10,000, or even $100,000 milestones, framing long-term holding as the correct strategy. 20:22

View Source  →  YouTube

For all you new pokemon collectors out there

Sep 22, 2026  ·  9m 56s

Investment Thesis

The creator shares a personal collecting journey centered on Legendary Collection reverse holos, then pivots to actionable advice for new collectors: focus on affordable sets like Scarlet & Violet 151 singles (dropping in price), and apply a grading-tier strategy when selling high-grade copies of vintage cards such as Legendary Collection Psyduck and Mewtwo.

Datapoints

  • Legendary Collection booster boxes were priced around $7,000 at the time of filming, compared to roughly $80 at original retail. 04:16
  • Scarlet & Violet 151 sealed product has risen in price since release, while singles have been dropping; the creator noted picking up Pikachu rares for around $2-3 each. 08:02
  • A Legendary Collection Psyduck PSA 8 recently sold for $200,000 USD, setting a new record high for that card. 08:51

Recommendations

BUYScarlet & Violet 151 singles now while prices are dropping, particularly lower-tier rares available for a few dollars each. 07:55
HOLDLegendary Collection Mewtwo PSA 8 and PSA 9 copies until a new PSA 10 sale establishes a fresh comp and pulls lower grades up in price. 09:09
SELLLegendary Collection Psyduck PSA 8 or PSA 9 copies into the current record-high price momentum. 08:55

View Source  →  YouTube

From Ketchum All Collectibles

Low Pop Pokemon is BOOMING

Sep 21, 2026  ·  24m 39s

Investment Thesis

Ketchum All Collectibles reports an unprecedented boom in vintage Pokemon, with dozens of cards now selling in the six figures and several crossing seven figures at auction. A PSA 10 Reverse Holo Legendary Collection Gyarados sold for $384,000, a personal record for the creator. He flags mid-era EX, Gold Star, and Level X cards as the standout performers, while noting modern sealed and high-pop cards are down 10-40%.

Datapoints

  • A PSA 10 Reverse Holo Legendary Collection Gyarados sold for $384,000, setting a new personal record for the creator and surpassing a prior PSA 10 Base Set First Edition sale handled through the eBay vault. 02:16
  • Modern sealed product and ultra-high-pop cards are down 10-40% depending on the card, while vintage Pokemon is booming with some cards 5x-20x-ing in a span of a few months. 00:10
  • On Fanatics, dozens of Pokemon cards are now selling in the six figures and several in the seven figures; the 24th-highest auction on the front page was still above $150,000, whereas historically that position would have been below $3,000-$5,000. 06:02

Recommendations

BUYBase Set First Edition cards, which the creator says have not risen as much as other vintage segments and represent his top pick if forced to allocate capital right now. 07:52
BUYLow-pop trophy cards and obscure Japanese promo cards, which the creator has been personally purchasing over the past several months to the tune of over $250,000. 08:01

View Source  →  YouTube

From PokeNE

This is Just the Start - $10,000,000 Slabs are Coming

Sep 22, 2026  ·  15m 00s

Investment Thesis

PokeNE's Brian argues that ultra-high-grade Pokemon slabs like the $900,000 Garchomp and $1M+ Rayquaza are undervalued relative to NFT and crypto peaks, driven by wealthy former NFT buyers rotating into physical collectibles. He draws a sharp line between that speculative bubble and everyday sealed investing, calling Brilliant Stars booster boxes and Fusion Strike booster boxes solid buys for regular collectors.

Datapoints

  • A Garchomp gold star (or equivalent high-grade slab) recently sold for $900,000, a card the creator says was worth a few thousand dollars less than a couple of years ago. 00:07
  • Brilliant Stars booster boxes are currently priced around $500 and Fusion Strike booster boxes around $850, levels the creator considers attractive entry points. 12:19
  • The creator predicts at least one gold-star-tier PSA slab will sell for $5 million before the end of next year, and expects eight-figure slab sales to follow before an eventual bubble correction. 08:36

Recommendations

BUYBrilliant Stars booster boxes at current ~$500 prices and Fusion Strike booster boxes at ~$850, which the creator is actively purchasing. 12:19
AVOIDAvoid spending savings on $20,000-$30,000 slabs hoping a millionaire buyer will pay multiples more; the creator calls this a bubble segment that could devastate regular collectors. 14:01

View Source  →  YouTube

From The Poke Plumber

Pokémon Investors & Collectors Aren’t Ready For What’s Next!

Sep 25, 2026  ·  25m 04s

Investment Thesis

The Poke Plumber argues that Sword and Shield era booster boxes are undervalued at current prices and represent a long-term buying opportunity, drawing parallels to how XY and Sun and Moon sets were ignored before surging. He warns that a Pokemon bear market is coming, particularly for ultra-modern product, but frames the downturn as a chance to dollar-cost average into sealed product from older eras.

Datapoints

  • Sword and Shield booster boxes are currently priced at $400 to $900 depending on the set, which the creator views as historically cheap given the trajectory of older eras. 03:49
  • Vivid Voltage booster boxes crashed from COVID highs near $250-plus down to $90-$100 before recovering to approximately $300, illustrating the boom-bust-recovery cycle the creator expects to repeat. 04:19
  • Sun and Moon booster box listings on the secondary market have dried up from 30-40 copies available to roughly 5-10 per set, signaling tightening supply ahead of a potential price run. 17:56

Recommendations

BUYSword and Shield era booster boxes at current prices, dollar-cost averaging on the way down, as the creator sees them as the safest bet during a modern Pokemon downturn. 05:54
BUYPrismatic Evolutions ETBs if reprint pressure drives prices significantly lower, adding incrementally rather than going all-in at once. 06:44
BUYCosmic Eclipse and other late Sun and Moon booster boxes opportunistically, as supply is drying up and the creator believes the window to accumulate at low prices is closing. 09:59

View Source  →  YouTube

Modern Pokemon May Never Be the SAME! Everyone NEEDS to PREPARE for This!

Sep 23, 2026  ·  22m 32s

Investment Thesis

The Poke Plumber argues that modern Pokemon is heading into a bear market driven by relentless reprinting, with Prismatic Evolutions ETBs potentially falling below $100 and Sword and Shield already down sharply. Vintage is hitting all-time highs while the 30th anniversary set remains strong. He is doubling down on Sword and Shield sealed and warns that Christmas 2024 could bring significant selling pressure across modern product.

Datapoints

  • Prismatic Evolutions ETBs are trading as low as sub-$86 depending on the distributor, and the creator believes they could fall below $100 as stores with heavy allocations across multiple TCG lines need liquidity. 03:03
  • Destined Rivals booster box cases are trading around $2,300-$2,400 per case at the wholesale level, with margins described as very thin. 04:50
  • Pokemon signed two new distributors, meaning even more product volume is coming to market; the creator expects this to continue pressuring modern sealed prices, particularly Prismatic Evolutions, which he compares to the trajectory of Crown Zenith. 09:30

Recommendations

HOLDSword and Shield sealed product long-term, as the creator doubled down on his own position and believes it will appreciate significantly given fixed supply and strong pull rates relative to Scarlet and Violet era sets. 11:10
AVOIDavoid buying loose 30th anniversary celebration packs, as the creator warns about potential pack weighing and poor hit-rate experiences from non-sealed sources. 18:52

View Source  →  YouTube

This Was Unexpected…More Pokemon Reprints?!? + Hobby In Complete Chaos!

Sep 21, 2026  ·  23m 46s

Investment Thesis

The Poke Plumber reports buying Sword and Shield era booster boxes at a local show, finding Brilliant Stars boxes in the $400-$525 range and a Fusion Strike booster box at $850, which he considers deeply undervalued. He warns that ultra-modern product including Prismatic Evolutions ETBs and 30th Anniversary sets face ongoing reprint pressure, while flagging concern about manipulated vintage slab prices driving irrational market behavior.

Datapoints

  • Brilliant Stars booster boxes were listed on eBay in the $400s range at the time of filming, with the creator purchasing multiple boxes at the show for $500-$525 each. Fusion Strike booster boxes were available at $850, and Lost Origin booster boxes have dropped to around $600. 04:21
  • Prismatic Evolutions ETBs are currently around $120 and the creator sees potential for further decline to the $90s, drawing a parallel to Crown Zenith ETB cases which once hit $350 per case before recovering. 06:50
  • Evolving Skies booster boxes have been flat for nearly 18 months, and Chilling Reign booster boxes were available at a local show in the low $400s per box. 22:02

Recommendations

BUYSword and Shield era booster boxes (Brilliant Stars, Fusion Strike, Chilling Reign) at current depressed prices, which the creator views as a significant undervaluation opportunity. 05:31
BUYDestined Rivals and Prismatic Evolutions products if you have extra capital, as the creator explicitly calls them out as buys at current levels. 21:55
SELLVintage sealed boxes and high-end slabs into current strength, as the creator is personally trimming duplicate vintage positions due to concerns about shill-driven price manipulation and COVID-era parallels. 13:00

View Source  →  YouTube

Section 02

Singles & Auction Prices

Latest singles and auction price changes from channels that track specific cards, eBay sales, and grading population shifts. Data-heavy by design; recommendations only where the creator made one.

From Danny Phantump

Rayquaza Has ENTERED THE CHAT

Sep 25, 2026  ·  23m 57s

Investment Thesis

Danny Phantump previews Delta Rain, the upcoming Mega Rayquaza main-series set releasing November 6th. He breaks down allocation numbers versus Pitch Black: booster boxes are down 11%, Elite Trainer Boxes down 5%, booster bundles down 4%, sleeve boosters down 29%, three-pack blisters down 33%, but check-lane boosters are up 50% and Build and Battle kits up 25%. Pre-order prices are running roughly $100 above MSRP on booster boxes and three times MSRP on most ancillary products.

Datapoints

  • Delta Rain booster box pre-orders are listed at approximately $267 on TCG Player, about $100 above MSRP, which is slightly cheaper than Chaos Rising pre-order pricing at the same point before release. 14:12
  • Delta Rain allocation numbers versus Pitch Black: booster boxes down 11%, Elite Trainer Boxes down 5%, booster bundles down 4%, three-pack blisters down 33%, sleeve boosters down 29%, check-lane boosters up 50%, and Build and Battle kits up 25%. 11:59
  • In the Mega Evolution block, illustration rare pull rates improved to 1 in every 9 packs versus 1 in every 12 packs in Scarlet and Violet, and the special illustration rare pull rate is approximately 1 in every 72 packs, meaning roughly 430 to 450 packs are needed to pull the Mega Rayquaza EX special illustration rare. 08:56

Recommendations

AVOIDavoid buying Delta Rain pre-orders at current prices (roughly three to five times MSRP on ancillary products), as allocation shortfalls are modest and reprints are likely given Pokemon's expanding print capacity. 19:17
AVOIDdo not FOMO into 30th Celebration sealed product as ETB market prices have already dropped $40 to $50 in recent days and additional waves of product are still incoming. 04:35

View Source  →  YouTube

The Unfortunate Reality of Pokemon's 30th UPC

Sep 23, 2026  ·  24m 00s

Investment Thesis

Danny Phantump breaks down the 30th anniversary Ultra Premium Collections (Espeon and Umbreon variants, MSRP $179.99), which are pre-selling at $566 and $719 respectively on TCGPlayer ahead of their November 6th release. Using historical data from the Celebrations and Charizard UPCs, he argues that promo card contents have consistently dropped sharply in the months after release, and that patient buyers can likely acquire the exclusive items for well under MSRP on the secondary market.

Datapoints

  • The 30th anniversary Umbreon Ultra Premium Collection is pre-selling at approximately $719 on TCGPlayer, while the Espeon variant sits at approximately $566, both well above the $179.99 MSRP. The creator notes this is a 'false market' because only a limited number of TCGPlayer-approved stores can list pre-orders this early. 07:02
  • The Celebrations (25th anniversary) Ultra Premium Collection launched at $120 MSRP, peaked at roughly $391 in May 2022, settled around $366 through its first year, and now trades above $1,000 sealed. The Charizard Ultra Premium Collection (also $120 MSRP) was clearanced at Target for $90-$110 within months of release before climbing above $500. 10:16
  • Promo singles from past Ultra Premium Collections have historically been very cheap in their first year: the Charizard VSTAR fell to $8.15, the Charizard VMAX fell below $10, and the Mega Charizard EX promo dropped from $78 at release to about $28 roughly a year later, a decline of over 60%. The Eevee EX from the Prismatic Evolutions Super Premium Collection fell 55% from roughly $50 in September 2025 to $19.12. 16:13

Recommendations

AVOIDDo not pay $500-$700 for a 30th anniversary Ultra Premium Collection at launch; wait approximately 6 months (around April 2026) for promo card prices and secondary-market supply to bottom out, then buy the exclusive promo cards and accessories individually for a fraction of the sealed cost. 19:36

View Source  →  YouTube

The GREATEST SINGLE COLLAPSE In Pokemon Card History!

Sep 21, 2026  ·  22m 41s

Investment Thesis

Danny Phantump documents the historic price collapse of 30th Anniversary (Pokemon TCG 30th Celebration) singles in the first five days after release. Futuristic rarity cards dropped 86-91%, special illustration rares fell 53-75%, and even illustration rares crashed 70-90%, driven by stronger-than-expected pull rates. With three more product waves still to come, the creator expects prices to continue falling and urges collectors to be patient.

Datapoints

  • The futuristic rarity Mew EX opened at $1,158.37 on release day and fell 91% to $104.73 within the first five days, while the futuristic rarity Mewtwo EX dropped 86.62% from $624 to $83.51 over the same period. Typical main-series set releases see 40-50% single drops in the first week; 70-90% drops across the board is described as unprecedented. 07:24
  • 30th Celebration pull rates: futuristic rarities pull approximately 1 per 100 packs (similar to the Crown Zenith secret rare Pikachu), special illustration rares pull roughly 1 per 18 packs (about 1 per 2 Elite Trainer Boxes), and illustration rares pull approximately 1 per 5-6 packs, meaning all 18 illustration rares can be completed in roughly 100 packs. 11:02
  • Classic collection cards have not suffered drops as large as the main set singles so far, pulling at roughly 1 per 9 packs (about 1 per Elite Trainer Box), but the creator expects their prices to fall significantly once Ultra Premium Collections release and add classic collection packs to the secondary market. 21:30

Recommendations

AVOIDWait on buying 30th Celebration singles because prices are still falling across the board, three more product waves have yet to release, and patience will yield significantly cheaper entry points. 06:37
AVOIDAvoid buying classic collection singles at current prices as Ultra Premium Collection releases will flood the secondary market with classic collection packs and push those prices down considerably. 06:24

View Source  →  YouTube

From It Was Never A Phase Cards

The Vintage Pokemon Market Is INSANE Right Now!

Sep 25, 2026  ·  27m 09s

Investment Thesis

TJ surveys 12-month price movement across vintage Pokemon singles and sealed product, documenting massive gains on Base Set Charizard, Gold Star cards, Southern Islands Mew, and more. He notes celebrity and influencer buying as a key demand driver, draws cautious parallels to COVID-era speculation, and advises collectors to adjust grade expectations downward as top-tier copies reach unobtainable price levels.

Datapoints

  • Base Set Unlimited Charizard raw near-mint copies rose from $456 a year ago to a one-year high of $944, while PSA 9 copies climbed from $2,300 to roughly $3,700 and PSA 10s now sit around $33,000. 01:01
  • Gold Star Charizard PSA 10 surged from $41,000 a year ago to $382,000, PSA 9 from $13,000 to $45,000, and raw copies peaked at $17,000 in March before pulling back to around $11,000; the move is partly attributed to rumors of a Gold Star return in an upcoming set. 07:01
  • Base Set Unlimited booster packs hit a one-year high of $914, up from $460 a year ago, approaching the $1,000 mark per loose pack. 17:00

Recommendations

AVOIDthe creator explicitly warns against purchasing vintage Pokemon cards at current all-time highs, noting the price action is reminiscent of COVID-era speculation and urging caution. 03:28

View Source  →  YouTube

30th Anniversary Pull Rates Revealed! + Pokemon Market Update

Sep 24, 2026  ·  21m 26s

Investment Thesis

It Was Never A Phase Cards covers 30th Celebration pull rates confirmed by TCGPlayer after opening 3,000 packs: SIRs hit one in 21 packs, IRs one in five, classic collection cards one in 10, and RGB Mew cards remain unquantified but likely in gold-card territory. The back half delivers a broad Sword and Shield era market update spanning Fusion Strike, Silver Tempest, Brilliant Stars, and Evolving Skies singles and sealed product.

Datapoints

  • 30th Celebration special illustration rares pull at one in 21 packs, roughly four times easier than recent sets such as Pitch Black (one in 80), making them the friendliest SIR pull rates of the modern era according to TCGPlayer data from 3,000 packs opened. 01:11
  • RGB Mew cards from 30th Celebration could not be pinned down across 3,000 packs, placing them at a minimum in gold-card territory (comparable to Mega Darkrai's gold at roughly one in 1,000 to 1,100 packs in Pitch Black); recent eBay sales show them trading between $3,000 and $4,000, below earlier highs near $6,000 to $7,000. 03:00
  • Evolving Skies booster boxes peaked near $2,700 in June and have dropped roughly 10% over six months to a current market price around $2,300, with only 15 boxes sold in the past month; the Rayquaza alt art (number 218) is up 98% year-over-year, from $631 to around $1,200, making it the top-performing single in the set. 16:28

View Source  →  YouTube

Everything You Need To Know About The 30th Celebration! One Week Update

Sep 23, 2026  ·  18m 03s

Investment Thesis

One week after the 30th Anniversary set release, most singles are down 20-25% from launch highs while sealed product has held firm or risen. Classic collection cards show mixed results: Lugia is up roughly 21-22%, Pikachu and Zekrom up 81%, and Shining Celebi up 47%, while the OG Charizard reprint is roughly flat. The creator urges patience on singles, noting more product and the November Ultra Premium Collection will add supply.

Datapoints

  • The Sleeping Mew SIR (number 152), the top chase card of the 30th Anniversary set, launched at $200 and has dropped roughly 23% to around $150 one week post-release. 01:14
  • The 30th Anniversary Lugia classic collection card launched at $200, rose to $260, settled around $230-$250 market price, and now has lowest TCGplayer listings around $300, representing roughly a 21-22% gain from release. 08:10
  • The 30th Anniversary Elite Trainer Box launched around $155-$160, spiked to $180, and is currently holding around $170; the Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box launched at $270-$278, spiked to $320, and is now holding around $304-$305. 13:20

Recommendations

AVOIDWait on buying 30th Anniversary singles as more product hitting shelves will continue to push prices lower. 02:00
AVOIDBe cautious buying classic collection cards now, as the November Ultra Premium Collection guarantees three classic collection cards per pack and will significantly increase supply. 07:23

View Source  →  YouTube

Pokemon Reprints In Full Swing! Is It Enough?! Black Bolt White Flare

Sep 22, 2026  ·  21m 40s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] Creator TJ covers confirmed reprints of Black Bolt and White Flare products, specifically the Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection moving from Costco exclusivity into general distribution, plus new poster collections. He reviews sealed product price performance across ETBs, booster bundles, and loose packs, and surveys key singles including the Victini, Zekrom, Reshiram black-white rares and standout illustration rares, noting expected price drops once reprint supply hits shelves.

Datapoints

  • The Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection (Black Bolt/White Flare) rose from $78 at launch in December to a new all-time high of $187 on TCGPlayer, a 139% gain on the year, and is now confirmed to move from Costco exclusivity into general distribution. 01:22
  • Black Bolt and White Flare Elite Trainer Boxes are up 87-88% and 80% on the year respectively; Black Bolt ETBs peaked at $180 and sit around $165 (from an $88 base), while White Flare ETBs peaked at $155 and sit around $148 (from an $82 base). 04:18
  • Black Bolt and White Flare loose packs are each around $15, up roughly 62% on the year from one-year lows of $7.68 and $7.50 respectively, while booster bundles for both sets are up approximately 91-93% on the year, with Black Bolt bundles at $100-$102 and White Flare bundles around $92. 05:12

View Source  →  YouTube

Pokemon Center Queue WHEN?! Market Update + More!

Sep 21, 2026  ·  22m 32s

Investment Thesis

TJ covers the extended Pokemon Center drop drought (over two months since the last major US drop) and previews upcoming November 6th products including the Scarlet & Violet 151 Ultra Premium Collection (pre-ordering around $700, up 32% in a month) and Delta Rain booster boxes (holding near $266). He also runs through several singles moving up or down, including Ascended Heroes and Mega Evolution Base cards.

Datapoints

  • The Scarlet & Violet 151 Ultra Premium Collection is pre-ordering on TCG Player around $700, representing a 32% increase over the past month from the $500 range; the Espeon version is up 38% from the $400s to around $560. 04:10
  • Delta Rain booster boxes have held steady near $266 in pre-order pricing for most of September, with consistent daily sales volume on TCG Player. 10:18
  • The Psyduck illustration rare (number 226) from Ascended Heroes is down 40% and hitting an all-time low near $55, attributed to heavy Ascended Heroes ETB supply flowing through Costco and increasing singles inventory. 17:35

Recommendations

AVOIDTJ warns against paying current inflated pre-order prices (around $700) for the Scarlet & Violet 151 Ultra Premium Collection on TCG Player, noting prices will drop significantly on release day. 11:06
AVOIDTJ advises caution on the Pikachu Delta Species from Phantom Forces, flagging signs of a buyout and price manipulation driving the 151% monthly spike. 12:57

View Source  →  YouTube

Is This The Final Drop For Prismatic? Pokemon Market Update

Sep 20, 2026  ·  21m 01s

Investment Thesis

TJ covers Prismatic Evolutions sealed and singles across all product formats, noting a wave of ETB restocks through big-box retailers and incoming LGS distribution is pushing prices to multi-month lows. He also updates Ascended Heroes ETBs, Focus Fighters boxes, and key Prismatic and Ascended Heroes singles, flagging continued price softness across the board as more supply hits the market.

Datapoints

  • Prismatic Evolutions Elite Trainer Boxes are at a new 6-month low: the market price has fallen from $176 six months ago to approximately $136-$140 currently, with the 1-year low sitting around $111 from December. 00:37
  • Prismatic Evolutions Super Premium Collections are down roughly 30% from their peak of approximately $390, with the 1-year low around $239-$240 and current lowest TCGPlayer listings at $250. 04:24
  • Ascended Heroes Mega Gengar SIR (number 284) is at a new 3-month and 6-month low, down 38%, with the all-time low at $820 and a current lowest listing of $823; supply on TCGPlayer stands at 124 copies listed versus only 36 sold over the past 3 months. 16:09

Recommendations

AVOIDWait on buying Prismatic Evolutions Elite Trainer Boxes as additional restock waves through LGS distribution are expected to push prices lower, potentially toward the $111 floor. 07:04
AVOIDWait on Focus Fighters boxes as a second wave through Sam's Club is expected, which should bring the current $230 secondary-market price down. 13:43
AVOIDHold off on buying Ascended Heroes Mega Gengar singles as supply significantly outpaces demand and more ETB reprints are expected to push single prices lower. 17:01

View Source  →  YouTube

From Top 10 Pokemon

Greatest Investments In The Pokemon Hobby RIGHT NOW!

Sep 23, 2026  ·  10m 44s

Investment Thesis

Top 10 Pokemon reviews the three best-performing Pokemon card categories over the past three years: Legendary Collection reverse holos, Gold Star cards, and Level X cards. Highlighted sales include a Legendary Collection reverse holo Charizard PSA 10 rising from $11,400 to $575,000, a Gold Star Torchic PSA 10 reaching $2.7 million, and a Garchomp Level X PSA 10 selling for $900,000, with percentage gains ranging from roughly 1,000% to over 38,000%.

Datapoints

  • Legendary Collection reverse holo Charizard PSA 10 rose from $11,400 three years ago to $575,000 recently, a 5,000% increase; the reverse holo Gengar went from $7,628 to $75,000 (9,140% increase) over the same period. 03:04
  • Gold Star Torchic PSA 10 climbed from $28,800 less than three years ago to $2.7 million today (9,275% increase), while Gold Star Rayquaza PSA 10 went from $38,400 to approximately $682,500 (1,676% increase). 06:44
  • Level X Garchomp from Majestic Dawn PSA 10 sold for $900,000 recently versus roughly $5,000 two years ago (17,900% increase); Gliscor Level X from Legends Awakened went from $810 to $312,000 (38,420% increase), the highest percentage gain among all cards reviewed. 09:08

View Source  →  YouTube

Was this forwarded?

Subscribe for free, every Saturday →

One email per week. Unsubscribe anytime.

Subscribers also get the free Pull Rates Cheat Sheet: real odds for every rarity, set by set, updated as new sets ship.

Disclaimers

This week: 24 videos across 10 channels. Browse the public archive at tcgcardinvestor.com.

Sponsorship enquiries or feedback: hello@tcgcardinvestor.com

Creation of this newsletter is assisted by AI and may contain mistakes. Always verify each claim against the source video before acting on any recommendation.

This report is editorial commentary based on publicly-available content from independent creators. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or collectible, or a recommendation of any particular allocation. Trading-card markets are speculative, illiquid, and subject to material price swings driven by reprint cycles, grading-population changes, and shifts in collector sentiment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ratings (BUY / HOLD / SELL / AVOID) reflect the cited creator's view at the timestamp linked, not the publisher's view. Citation timestamps deep-link to the moment in the source video where the claim is made.

Compiled 2026-09-27 12:10  ·  TCG Card Investor  ·  Editorial digest, not investment advice