TCG Card Investor  ·  Weekly Briefing

TCG Card Investor

Weekly market intelligence on the Pokemon TCG

Vol. 2026 · Issue No. 14  ·  July 18 – 25, 2026

Hey friend, welcome to the hobby.

The Big Story

Roughly 750,000 Destined Rivals ETBs have dropped through Walmart in six weeks at 50,000-plus units per week, with zero units reaching distribution yet, crashing buy-list prices from $150 to approximately $100. Meanwhile, Chaos Rising booster boxes have hit new all-time lows and two recent Mega Evolution sets are down 20-40% from their highs, the first meaningful reset in years. The Greninja Special Art Rare from Chaos Rising has collapsed from $588 to $237, and its PSA 10 has fallen from $2,600 to $784, all while large operators quietly accumulate thousands of ETBs at $50-60 each.

Key Market Trends

1.Walmart Destined Rivals flood crashes buy-lists; six-month hold recommended. An estimated 750,000 Destined Rivals ETBs have sold through Walmart over five to six weeks at roughly 50,000 units per week, with no units yet reaching distribution. Buy-list prices have fallen from $150 to approximately $100, and secondary market prices have dropped from a $290-$300 peak to around $135. Multiple creators expect the suppression to last roughly six months before supply dries up.
AnonTCG 04:08  ·  AnonTCG 06:18  ·  The Poke Plumber 07:04
2.Mega Evolution wave two sets at or near MSRP: accumulation window or value trap?. Perfect Order booster boxes have fallen to roughly $168-$174 (MSRP approximately $161), Chaos Rising booster boxes hit a new all-time low of $182 before bouncing to $186-$187, and Perfect Order was spotted at retail for around $150. Daily sales volume on Perfect Order spiked from 20-50 boxes to 192 and then 311 boxes on consecutive days once prices fell, suggesting buyers are absorbing the dip at 5-10x normal volume. Multiple creators frame this as a buying window, though some caution that wave two supply could push prices lower still.
It Was Never A Phase Cards 04:15  ·  It Was Never A Phase Cards 08:03  ·  Nostalgia Nomics 01:22  ·  The Poke Plumber 10:56  ·  Alpha Investments 44:02
3.30th Anniversary Celebrations ETBs: long-term buy thesis vs. FOMO warning. Two creators are actively buying 30th Anniversary Celebrations ETBs at $170, citing precedents like Hidden Fates ETBs recovering to $550 and Celebrations ETBs reaching $380-$400 after heavy reprinting. However, other creators warn against chasing the launch at inflated prices, noting TCGPlayer pre-order prices for booster bundles at $120-plus are hyperinflated and that anniversary sets historically take five to ten years to appreciate meaningfully. The split is genuine: some are buying now, others are waiting for a post-launch dip.
Collect Pokemon 13:16  ·  Collect Pokemon 05:05  ·  It Was Never A Phase Cards 07:29  ·  The Poke Plumber 16:50
4.Modern sealed booster boxes: 100% historical win rate cited as core long-term thesis. Multiple creators independently argue that modern Pokemon booster boxes purchased near MSRP have risen above MSRP on every historical instance over a three-to-seven-year horizon, outperforming S&P and mutual fund returns. Examples cited include Temporal Forces booster boxes up roughly 40% year-over-year, Stellar Crown up 40-50%, and Crown Zenith ETBs turning a $50 entry into roughly a 6x return over three years. The burn rate from ripping channels is described as accelerating supply destruction faster than in prior eras.
Nostalgia Nomics 46:03  ·  Nostalgia Nomics 06:31  ·  Ketchum All Collectibles 08:44  ·  Alpha Investments 39:09
5.Rayquaza cards up 89-178% on Delta Rain anticipation; creators warn against chasing. The Rayquaza alternate art from Evolving Skies is up 58% over recent months to $1,250-$1,300, the Rayquaza V alternate art is up 66% over three months to $516, and the Rayquaza V-Max from Evolving Skies rose from $631 to $1,249 over four months. Multiple creators attribute the moves to a mix of coordinated buyouts and organic demand driven by the upcoming Delta Rain set announcement, and both caution against chasing cards that have already spiked sharply.
It Was Never A Phase Cards 13:08  ·  It Was Never A Phase Cards 14:12  ·  Danny Phantump 09:37  ·  Danny Phantump 15:41
6.Current dip is a rotation, not a crash: auction data and volume spikes support the thesis. Nostalgia Nomics showed Paldea Evolved cases selling at auction for $2,900-$3,100 (matching TCGPlayer market price of $2,950) and Destined Rivals booster boxes clearing at over $3,300, both at or above market via 5% consignment fees. Alpha Investments independently frames the 20-40% drawdown on newer sets as the first meaningful reset in years and a long-term accumulation window, not a structural collapse. Both creators explicitly advise against panic-selling.
Nostalgia Nomics 02:31  ·  Nostalgia Nomics 03:31  ·  Alpha Investments 44:02  ·  Alpha Investments 41:43

Consensus Calls

BUYChaos Rising ETBs and booster boxes near current MSRP-level pricing ($62-$70 for ETBs, $186-$190 for booster boxes), treating the flipper-driven price depression as a long-term accumulation window with stronger chase cards than Perfect Order.
BUYPrismatic Evolutions ETBs at current prices, drawing parallels to early Evolving Skies and 151 skepticism that preceded major price appreciation; one creator specifically targets 80-85% of market price as the entry threshold.
BUYModern sealed booster boxes near MSRP across current Scarlet and Violet era sets as a long-term hold, citing a 100% historical win rate over three-to-seven-year horizons and an accelerating burn rate from ripping channels destroying supply faster than prior eras.
HOLDSealed Scarlet and Violet era product already in inventory; do not panic-sell into the current rotation, as auction data confirms product is clearing at or above TCGPlayer market prices and the dip is driven by capital rotation, not structural collapse.
HOLDDestined Rivals ETBs already in inventory for approximately six months; the Walmart supply flood has crashed buy-lists to $100 and secondary prices to $135, but multiple creators expect recovery to $300-$500 over a two-to-three-year horizon once supply dries up.
AVOIDAvoid chasing Rayquaza singles that have already spiked 89-178%; many moves are driven by coordinated buyouts and FOMO rather than fundamentals, and momentum has already slowed to low single digits month-over-month.

If you found this useful, forward to a fellow collector or investor. Sharing helps the briefing reach the right audience.

Quote of the Week

“100% of Pokemon booster boxes have risen well above MSRP over a 3-to-7-year horizon, outperforming S&P and mutual fund returns.”

— Nostalgia Nomics  ·  46:03

Section 01

Market Commentary

Per-creator notes from market-commentary channels. Each section reflects one channel's published view; consensus across all channels is summarized in the briefing above.

From Alpha Investments

7,000 - FAILED POKEMON - CHAOS RISING BOXES

Jul 24, 2026  ·  13m 04s

Investment Thesis

Rudy (Alpha Investments) is aggressively accumulating thousands of Chaos Rising ETBs purchased from flippers and big-box store clearouts at roughly $50-60 each, while current market listings sit around $62-70. He frames this as a classic long-term accumulation window, comparing it to his earlier positions in Scarlet & Violet Base and Sword and Shield, and plans to hold until at least July 2030.

Datapoints

  • Chaos Rising ETBs are currently listed on TCGPlayer by hundreds of stores and individuals, with heavy volume available at roughly $62-70 each, near or slightly above MSRP, as flippers and short-term investors dump inventory. 07:40
  • Rudy is acquiring thousands of Chaos Rising ETBs from flipper liquidations and big-box store clearouts, paying approximately $50-60 per ETB at roughly 80-90% of market value. 04:56
  • Rudy notes this is the first time in a couple of years he has seen a Pokemon market downturn significant enough to build large long-term positions, drawing parallels to his earlier accumulation of Scarlet & Violet Base and Sword and Shield sets. 05:22

Recommendations

BUYChaos Rising ETBs at or near current market prices of $62-70, with a long-term hold target of at least 4 years (July 2030), treating the flipper-driven price depression as a accumulation window. 09:46

View Source  →  YouTube

The Great Pokemon Panic Selloff Collapse Bankruptcy Waffle Fry

Jul 19, 2026  ·  54m 32s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] Rudy argues the current Pokemon price drops on new sets are a healthy market rotation, not a crash, with capital flowing toward Magic the Gathering. He sees new Pokemon sets sitting on retail shelves at full stock for the first time in years as a positive reset, and expects the Pokemon 30th anniversary product timeline to absorb significant capital and bring renewed volatility.

Datapoints

  • New Pokemon sets (Mega Evolution 3 and 4 wave two) are dropping sharply in price, with patrons reporting fully stocked shelves at retail with no purchase limits, a first in recent memory. 06:01
  • Two recent Pokemon sets are down 20-40% from their highs, which Rudy frames as the first meaningful reset opportunity for long-term buyers in years. 44:02
  • Pokemon 30th anniversary is not a single release event but a multi-month product timeline beginning around August, expected to generate significant capital inflows and high volatility as flippers and investors cycle in and out. 13:01

Recommendations

HOLDSealed Pokemon products long-term; Rudy's core thesis is that doing nothing after buying sealed Pokemon is the optimal strategy, as markets are non-linear and patience is rewarded. 39:09
AVOIDDo not panic-sell Pokemon positions into the current rotation; Rudy explicitly states this is not a Pokemon bear market and the reset is healthy, not a collapse. 41:43

View Source  →  YouTube

From Nostalgia Nomics

REGULATION Has Come To The POKEMON HOBBY!?

Jul 24, 2026  ·  12m 51s

Investment Thesis

Japan's ruling LDP party is weighing regulation of the Pokemon trading card market, citing rapid price appreciation and financialization. The creator argues the secondary market is self-regulating via supply and demand, points to current supply shortages driving prices up on sets like Ascended Heroes, and suggests regulatory pressure will likely ease if supply catches up and prices fall back to or below MSRP.

Datapoints

  • Japan's ruling LDP party stated that trading cards are 'no longer simply consumer products' and that the market's rapid expansion and rising asset values have created problems that cannot be ignored, per Bloomberg reporting. 01:22
  • The Pokemon TCG market is currently under extreme demand pressure with supply unable to keep up; sets like Ascended Heroes have people lining up at Sam's Clubs and fighting for product, keeping prices elevated despite additional supply being released. 06:16
  • A correction is already visible in Perfect Order, Chaos Rising, and Pitch Black, where supply has been sufficient relative to demand, causing prices to pull back. 05:56

View Source  →  YouTube

Pokemon Investing Market Talk!

Jul 24, 2026  ·  1h 6m

Investment Thesis

Nostalgia Nomics and guest Steve discuss the Pokemon TCG investing thesis across a wide-ranging market talk. Key arguments center on why modern sealed booster boxes have historically outperformed the S&P, why demand dwarfs supply even for high-pop cards like the Evolving Skies Umbreon VMAX, and why vintage Pokemon carries more correction risk than modern product bought near MSRP.

Datapoints

  • The Evolving Skies Umbreon VMAX (Moonbreon) has approximately 20,000 graded copies but fewer than 200 are typically available on the market at any time, meaning less than 1% of supply is circulating. The card is up roughly 1,000% since release, despite widespread claims it was overvalued at $400 in PSA 10. 31:57
  • The creator states that 100% of Pokemon booster boxes have risen well above MSRP over a 3-to-7-year horizon, outperforming S&P and mutual fund returns, and argues the burn rate from ripping channels is higher than ever, accelerating the supply destruction that drives price appreciation. 46:03
  • Vintage Pokemon dropped 70-80% during the 2020-2022 correction cycle, illustrating the downside risk of buying into already-elevated vintage prices versus modern sealed product purchased near MSRP. 47:04

Recommendations

BUYModern sealed Pokemon booster boxes across multiple sets near MSRP, as the creator argues this strategy has worked 100% of the time historically with very low downside risk and only time as the limiting factor. 46:03
HOLDModern sealed Pokemon product already in your position, as the creator expects the burn rate from ripping channels to accelerate scarcity and drive prices higher faster than in prior eras. 1:00:10

View Source  →  YouTube

Pokemon Investments ARE NOT LIQUID ANYMORE...

Jul 22, 2026  ·  11m 14s

Investment Thesis

Nostalgia Nomics pushes back on summer liquidity fears by walking through recent auction results for Paldea Evolved, Destined Rivals, Shrouded Fable, Journey Together, Phantasmal Flames, and key slabs, showing most sold at or above TCG Player market price via low-fee consignment auctions. The creator argues the broader Pokemon market remains healthy and that social media panic is overstating weakness in a small segment of ultra-modern sets.

Datapoints

  • Paldea Evolved cases sold at auction within the last 2 days for $2,900 to $3,100 (averaging ~$3,000), matching the TCG Player market price of $2,950, with only a 5% consignment fee via Pristine Auctions. 02:31
  • Destined Rivals booster boxes sold at auction for $3,276 plus $40 shipping (over $3,300), essentially matching the TCG Player market price of $3,299, again through Pristine Auctions at 5% fees. 03:31
  • Shrouded Fable, Journey Together, and Phantasmal Flames all sold at auction in mid-July at or above their TCG Player market prices, with Journey Together cases selling over market on eBay as recently as July 20th. 04:03

Recommendations

HOLDScarlet and Violet and Sword and Shield sealed product is flat but selling at full market price at auction, so there is no reason to panic-sell into summer weakness. 07:44

View Source  →  YouTube

The Pokemon Market Crash Is NOT REAL!

Jul 20, 2026  ·  12m 41s

Investment Thesis

Nostalgia Nomics argues the Pokemon market "crash" is overstated, showing that recent price dips on newer Scarlet Violet era booster boxes are driven by large distributors freeing up capital, not panic selling at a loss. He backs this with sales-volume data showing 5-10x daily unit spikes on price dips, and draws parallels to Crown Zenith and Paradox Rift, both of which were dismissed as bad sets before delivering 40-50% gains.

Datapoints

  • Perfect Order booster boxes dropped to approximately $174, near MSRP levels (roughly $166 plus sales tax for most buyers at Pokemon Center), but daily sales volume spiked from a stagnant 20-50 boxes per day to 192 and then 311 boxes sold on consecutive days once the price fell, suggesting buyers are absorbing the dip at 5-10x normal volume. 01:22
  • Temporal Forces booster boxes were $220-$230 in July/August of the prior year and are now approximately $320, representing roughly a 40% gain; Stellar Crown booster boxes were $220 a year ago and are now approximately $345, also around a 40-50% gain, both sets having been widely dismissed at release. 06:31
  • Crown Zenith ETBs traded flat at $40-$50 for two full years after its January 2023 release before climbing to $99 by January 2025 and eventually reaching $320-$330, turning a $50 entry into roughly a 6x return over three years. 09:17

Recommendations

BUYPerfect Order, Chaos Rising, and Pitch Black booster boxes on the current dip, as the creator argues the pattern of dismissed sets delivering 40-50% gains over 12 months repeats consistently. 07:10
HOLDPrismatic Evolutions ETBs if purchased at $100-$120 entry; the creator acknowledges flat-to-down performance over the past 5-6 months but frames it as a patience play similar to Crown Zenith's multi-year consolidation before its breakout. 07:41

View Source  →  YouTube

From AnonTCG

Some Interesting Observations on the Pokémon Market and current Printing Behavior

Jul 25, 2026  ·  15m 55s

Investment Thesis

AnonTCG observes that the Pokemon TCG print facility now has roughly double the lead time for Delta Rain (November) compared to recent sets, raising questions about print run size and wave structure. He also flags an unusual Destined Rivals ETB reprint pattern: over 750,000 units sold through Walmart in six weeks with no distribution release yet, crashing buy-list prices and potentially signaling a deliberate market-saturation test by the Pokemon Company.

Datapoints

  • Perfect Order, Chaos Rising, and Pitch Black each released two months apart; Delta Rain does not release until November 8, giving the print facility roughly four months of lead time, double what it had for the two preceding sets. 01:03
  • Destined Rivals ETBs have been dropping on Walmart every Wednesday for five to six weeks at an estimated 50,000+ units per week, with roughly 750,000 units sold through Walmart in the last month and a half, while no units have yet reached distribution. 04:08
  • The buy-list price for Destined Rivals ETBs has fallen from $150 to $140 to approximately $100 as Walmart supply has saturated the secondary market. 06:18

Recommendations

HOLDDestined Rivals ETBs are likely to stay suppressed for around six months before supply dries up and prices recover; the creator expects them to reach $300-$500 in three years but sees no near-term upside. 08:21

View Source  →  YouTube

This week's Pokémon, Magic the Gathering, One Piece and other TCG Distribution Update!

Jul 20, 2026  ·  28m 09s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] In a wide-ranging TCG distribution update, the creator briefly covers two upcoming Pokemon products: 30th Anniversary mini portfolios and a Halloween two-pack featuring a Gengar promo. He argues both are likely to be under-ordered by retailers, creating a numerical advantage in allocation fights for those who place large orders now.

Datapoints

  • Pokemon 30th Anniversary mini portfolios are expected to be skipped or ordered small by most retailers, creating a supply imbalance at distribution. 15:46
  • A Halloween two-pack featuring a Gengar promo is upcoming but not yet listed in distributor catalogs, suggesting it will also be short-ordered by retailers. 16:17

Recommendations

BUYPlace a large order for Pokemon 30th Anniversary mini portfolios through any distributor offering open ordering, as low retailer demand is expected to give you a numerical edge in the allocation fight. 15:56
BUYOrder the Halloween Gengar promo two-pack early, as it is likely to be short-ordered and represents an opportunity to gain allocation advantage over competitors. 16:17

View Source  →  YouTube

From Collect Pokemon

This makes no sense...

Jul 24, 2026  ·  20m 30s

Investment Thesis

Collect Pokemon argues that 'printed to the ground' is a meaningless investing deterrent, citing Hidden Fates ETBs recovering to $550, XY Evolutions booster boxes reaching $2,400, Shining Legends ETBs hitting $1,000, and Celebrations ETBs at $380-$400 as examples of heavily reprinted sets that still appreciated significantly. He applies this framework to the 30th anniversary set, where he personally bought 30 ETBs at $170 each, betting the long-term upside outweighs short-term downside risk.

Datapoints

  • Hidden Fates Elite Trainer Boxes, once reprinted down to $150 during COVID, are now selling for around $550 USD (approximately $55 per pack). 02:33
  • XY Evolutions booster boxes, once so oversupplied that distributors begged people to take them at $60-$70, have recovered to around $2,400 per booster box (approximately $66 per pack). 03:49
  • Shining Legends Elite Trainer Boxes are now selling for $1,000 USD (approximately $100 per pack); Celebrations ETBs are at $380-$400 USD (approximately $35-$40 per pack); 30th anniversary ETBs currently retail around $170, implying roughly $18 per pack. 04:52

Recommendations

BUY30th anniversary Elite Trainer Boxes at current prices around $170, as the creator believes long-term upside toward $400-$500 outweighs a potential short-term drawdown to $120-$150. 13:16

View Source  →  YouTube

Knowing what people like about the 30th.

Jul 23, 2026  ·  11m 36s

Investment Thesis

Collect Pokemon shares an updated investment thesis on the Pokemon 30th Anniversary set. He notes anniversary sets historically take 5-10 years to appreciate, compares the trajectory of Generations and Celebrations, and is scaling back his sealed allocation. He plans to buy some 30th Anniversary ETBs but will also target individual Pikachu singles, which he expects to be cheap at launch.

Datapoints

  • 30th Anniversary ETBs are pre-ordering at around $170-$200 USD, above the creator's comfort threshold of $150-$160; he expects prices to fall as allocation details become clearer. 05:05
  • Celebrations ETBs took approximately five years to reach $300-$400 USD; Generations trainer boxes took roughly 10 years to reach $3,700 USD, illustrating the long appreciation timeline for anniversary sets. 05:55
  • Evolving Skies booster boxes are sitting at $2,300 USD and have not moved in approximately two years, cited as an example of sealed product capital being tied up without appreciation. 08:24

Recommendations

BUYConsider purchasing 30th Anniversary ETBs at or near $150-$160 USD, with the expectation of roughly doubling to $300-$340 in five years, but limit allocation given the long investment horizon. 04:56
BUYTarget individual 30th Anniversary Pikachu singles in October-November at launch, when supply should be plentiful and prices are expected to be under $5 USD per card, allowing cherry-picking of well-centered copies. 03:54

View Source  →  YouTube

From Ketchum All Collectibles

I am Investing HARDER into Pokemon Boxes

Jul 20, 2026  ·  26m 18s

Investment Thesis

Ketchum All Collectibles argues the current Pokemon market dip is not a crash but a healthy correction after 18 months of above-MSRP pricing. He outlines a tiered buying strategy for modern booster boxes keyed to price levels, explains why he is favoring Prismatic Evolutions ETBs over Ascended Heroes at current prices, and details how 151 packs he bought at $9-10 have nearly tripled in value.

Datapoints

  • Pokemon Center MSRP on a booster box is $161.64; six boxes per case puts a case at approximately $969.84. 01:36
  • Lost Origin booster boxes moved from roughly $530 to $750 (approximately 40-50% gain), while Destined Rivals moved from roughly $315 to $550 (approximately 70% gain) over the same holding period. 08:44
  • Scarlet & Violet 151 packs purchased at $9-10 each have nearly tripled in value to current market price plus a ripping premium. 09:12

Recommendations

BUYBooster boxes of current Scarlet & Violet era sets on a tiered scale: 8-12 cases around $200/box, scaling up to 18-20 cases at $150/box and 30-35 cases at $120/box. 20:46
BUYPrismatic Evolutions ETBs at 80-85% of market price; the creator prefers them over Ascended Heroes at comparable prices given the set's age and demand profile. 23:05
HOLDAscended Heroes ETBs already in inventory rather than dumping them at current softened prices to chase 30th Anniversary Celebrations at full market price. 15:03

View Source  →  YouTube

From PokeNE

I Am Selling My Pokemon Investments

Jul 21, 2026  ·  10m 05s

Investment Thesis

Brian from PokeNE is liquidating a large portion of his sealed Pokemon inventory to raise cash ahead of the 30th anniversary product releases. Items for sale include Evolving Skies cases and booster boxes, Cosmic Eclipse booster boxes, Prismatic Evolutions Pokemon Center ETBs, 151 UPCs and Pokemon Center ETBs, Celebrations UPC cases, Silver Tempest and Paldea Evolved cases, and various older ETBs. He flags the Japanese 151 sealed case market as heavily manipulated.

Datapoints

  • Cosmic Eclipse booster boxes are currently priced around $4,500. 01:36
  • Japanese 151 sealed cases are trading around $6,000 each, but Brian believes the market is manipulated and fair value should be closer to $500 per case. 05:34
  • 151 Ultra Premium Collections, which originally cost $90 from distributors and sold for around $110 at launch, are now priced at approximately $1,000 each. 07:54

Recommendations

SELLBrian is actively selling his Celebrations Ultra Premium Collection cases, citing the current 30th anniversary hype cycle as the right moment to exit. 05:02
SELLBrian wants to liquidate his Silver Tempest and Paldea Evolved sealed cases, currently priced around $3,000 per case. 07:08

View Source  →  YouTube

From The Poke Plumber

Pokémon Investing Is DEAD! + Sun and Moon Opening (End of Video)

Jul 24, 2026  ·  28m 57s

Investment Thesis

The Poke Plumber argues that Pokemon investing is not dead but entering a calmer, opportunity-rich phase. He highlights Sun and Moon, XY, and Sword and Shield sealed product as undervalued, warns against overpaying for ultra-modern releases like the upcoming 30th anniversary sets, and recommends dollar-cost averaging into older sets while avoiding FOMO on new launches.

Datapoints

  • Lost Thunder booster boxes were selling in the $1,200-$1,300 range at time of recording, and Celestial Storm booster boxes ran from around $1,200 up to $1,400 before hitting $2,000 and then stagnating for roughly two years. 02:30
  • Sun and Moon era hyper rares and ultra rares carry very low PSA pop report numbers and are described as broadly underrated; specific sets called out as undervalued include Ultra Prism, Lost Thunder, Celestial Storm, and Forbidden Light booster boxes. 03:11
  • The creator is being flooded with sellers trying to offload Scarlet and Violet and Mega Evolution era product, signaling oversupply pressure on ultra-modern sealed goods and driving him to shift focus toward Sun and Moon and XY era product. 03:59

Recommendations

BUYSun and Moon era booster boxes (Ultra Prism, Lost Thunder, Celestial Storm, Forbidden Light, Cosmic Eclipse, Unified Minds, Unbroken Bonds, Guardians Rising, Burning Shadows) as undervalued sealed product with low card pops and stagnant prices that the creator believes have upside. 03:20
BUYBrilliant Stars booster boxes at current prices; the creator states he just purchased another case himself. 08:59
BUYPitch Black checklane blisters featuring the Slowpoke promo, which the creator is buying in case quantities at cheap prices and believes will appreciate over time. 13:52

View Source  →  YouTube

The Danger in The Pokémon Hobby No One Talks About! Plus Opening a older Team Skull Box in 2026?!

Jul 22, 2026  ·  30m 58s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] The Poke Plumber surveys a softening modern sealed market, noting boxes dropping into the hundreds and sellers raising liquidity ahead of the 30th Anniversary Celebrations release. He argues this pullback is a buying opportunity for Prismatic Evolutions and Ascended Heroes, drawing parallels to early skepticism around Evolving Skies and 151, while warning that over-leveraged resellers and rising print runs could push the market darker before major sets reverse the trend.

Datapoints

  • Fusion Strike first-print cases are selling for around $5,500, while individual Fusion Strike booster boxes are priced at roughly $1,100 to $1,200, making the case price comparatively cheap on a per-box basis. 04:46
  • XY Evolutions Elite Trainer Boxes have reached $800 to $900, and modern booster boxes have recently dropped back into the hundreds, a level not seen since Surging Sparks. 05:02
  • Perfect Order booster boxes were spotted at retail for around $150, which is below MSRP, reflecting the current market softness across the three-set wave of Chaos Rising, Pitch Black, and Perfect Order. 10:56

Recommendations

BUYPrismatic Evolutions sealed product (ETBs, Booster Bundles) now, while ETBs and bundles are widely available, drawing the same parallel to early Evolving Skies and 151 skepticism that preceded major price appreciation. 13:24
BUYAscended Heroes sealed product ahead of additional supply arriving in late July and August, as the current window before tins and bundles restock represents a near-term entry opportunity. 13:27
BUYPerfect Order booster boxes if found at or around $150, using dollar-cost averaging to take advantage of the current market slowdown. 11:00

View Source  →  YouTube

The Pokémon Space is About to Get WAY WORSE! + I Opened A 10 Year Old Box!

Jul 20, 2026  ·  38m 14s

Investment Thesis

The Poke Plumber argues the Pokemon market is softening but not crashing, with scalpers and quick-flip buyers panic-selling newer Scarlet and Violet sets at a loss while chasing other TCGs at all-time highs. He urges collectors to hold steady, avoid overpaying for newer releases like Pitch Black, and accumulate older Sword and Shield, Sun and Moon, and XY era product during the current flat period.

Datapoints

  • Destined Rivals ETBs that were selling for $290-$300 at peak are now being listed around $135, a drop of more than 50% from all-time highs. 07:04
  • Local game stores that previously limited allocations to one case of ETBs or booster boxes are now proactively offering multiple cases of Prismatic Evolutions and Ascended Heroes product at below-market prices, signaling a supply glut. 05:19
  • Black Bolt and White Flare ETBs and booster bundles are among the few current Pokemon products ticking up in price, while Destined Rivals continues to drop and Surging Sparks shows only slight upward movement. 25:46

Recommendations

HOLDSword and Shield, Sun and Moon, and XY era sealed product; the creator sees these as safe-money positions unlikely to drop even if the broader market worsens. 26:24
AVOIDAvoid buying Pitch Black booster boxes above $200; wait for a potential second-wave price drop to the $160-$170 range before accumulating. 15:07
AVOIDDo not chase the 30th anniversary product at launch; the creator expects an initial price spike followed by a pullback, and warns against FOMO buying. 16:50

View Source  →  YouTube

Section 02

Singles & Auction Prices

Latest singles and auction price changes from channels that track specific cards, eBay sales, and grading population shifts. Data-heavy by design; recommendations only where the creator made one.

From Danny Phantump

Apparently the Market is CRASHING and You Should Buy Pokemon Cards NOW

Jul 24, 2026  ·  21m 10s

Investment Thesis

Danny Phantump walks through a framework for evaluating whether a dipping Pokemon card is actually worth buying now, using TCG Player listing counts and daily sales velocity as key signals. He reviews illustration rares from Phantasmal Flames, Journey Together, Destined Rivals, Obsidian Flames, Surging Sparks, Scarlet and Violet Base, Stellar Crown, and Temporal Forces, noting that most are still trending down with too much inventory to call a bottom yet.

Datapoints

  • A Flygon illustration rare from Phantasmal Flames is down roughly 11% over the past month to $4.86, but has 528 listings on TCG Player, suggesting healthy supply that could push it lower; over the past six months it is still up over 23%. 04:42
  • A Larvatar illustration rare from Obsidian Flames has dropped about 21% over the past three months to $6.76 (from a March high of $10.30), with 309 listings and recent daily sales of 30 to 40 copies, implying fewer than 10 days of inventory at that pace. 10:55
  • A Grotle illustration rare from Temporal Forces has only 43 listings and sells roughly 20 copies per week, giving it about two weeks of inventory, while a Drampa from the same set at nearly double the price has 10-plus weeks of inventory at its slower sales pace. 19:43

Recommendations

BUYConsider the Articuno illustration rare from Journey Together near current levels around $21, as daily sales of 20 to 30 copies against 327 listings suggest the price may be close to a floor. 16:25
AVOIDWait on the Braviary illustration rare from Surging Sparks; with 309 listings and only 8 to 16 copies selling daily, inventory could last 25-plus days and the card may drop closer to booster-pack price. 13:10

View Source  →  YouTube

Rayquaza Has ARRIVED

Jul 22, 2026  ·  16m 29s

Investment Thesis

Danny Phantump surveys the Rayquaza card market ahead of the Delta Rain set release, documenting price surges of 89% to 454% across a wide range of Rayquaza singles over the past year. He attributes the moves to a mix of coordinated buyouts and organic demand driven by the upcoming set announcement, and cautions collectors against chasing cards that have already spiked sharply.

Datapoints

  • The Rayquaza Amazing Rare from Vivid Voltage is up 188% over the past year, peaking at $32.53 before retracing roughly 10% to $28.56, with abnormal sales volume spikes visible in December 2025 and again from April 2026 onward. 02:20
  • The Rayquaza V-Max Trainer Gallery card from Silver Tempest jumped from just over $100 to $222.70 after a buyout of 30+ copies in April 2026, representing 178.86% growth over the past year; it was sitting at $212.63 at time of recording. 03:59
  • The Rayquaza V-Max from Evolving Skies rose from $631 to $1,249.89 (up 89%) over the past four months, while the alternate art Rayquaza V from the same set surged from $192.90 to $516.65 (up 169%), both driven by anticipation of the Delta Rain set. 09:37

Recommendations

AVOIDThe creator advises patience on Rayquaza cards that have already spiked sharply, noting many of the moves are unsustainable and driven by FOMO rather than fundamentals. 15:41

View Source  →  YouTube

These “Bulk Pokemon Cards” Have Gone CRAZY! Here’s Why!

Jul 20, 2026  ·  19m 02s

Investment Thesis

Danny Phantump profiles a wave of bulk-era Pokemon singles illustrated by artist Komiya, showing 100–1,300% price growth over the past year. Cards from Cosmic Eclipse, Lost Thunder, Fates Collide, and other XY/Sun and Moon sets have surged due to rising artist-collector demand, low secondary-market supply, and condition scarcity. The video serves as a checklist for collectors sifting bulk boxes.

Datapoints

  • The Komiya Wailmer common from Cosmic Eclipse rose from $0.42 in July 2025 to $6.60 currently, approximately 1,300% growth in one year, driven by artist-collector demand and thin secondary-market supply. 05:38
  • The Komiya Slowpoke reverse holo from Lost Thunder climbed from $2.25 in July 2025 to $21.26 currently, up roughly 845%, with near-mint copies selling immediately upon listing on TCGPlayer. 07:04
  • Multiple Komiya-illustrated commons, uncommons, and rares across XY and Sun and Moon era sets have posted 100–945% gains over the past year; the Hypno reverse holo from BREAKpoint is up 945% to $20.79, the Dedenne from Forbidden Light is up 831% to $31.10, and the Snorlax rare from Fates Collide is up 384% to $28.58. 08:15

Recommendations

SELLIf you hold extra copies of Komiya Wailmer from Cosmic Eclipse, now may be a good time to trade them off if artist collecting is not your focus. 05:58

View Source  →  YouTube

The CHEAPEST Way to Complete the Pitch Black Master Set!

Jul 19, 2026  ·  25m 34s

Investment Thesis

Danny Phantump walks through the cheapest strategy for completing a Pitch Black master set, noting that singles and sealed product have dropped significantly since release. He covers pull-rate math, recommends opening 50-75 packs to cover bulk cards, and then buying remaining singles from sites like Cool Stuff Inc., emphasizing patience over FOMO as wave 2 supply approaches.

Datapoints

  • Only two cards in Pitch Black remain above $100: the Mega Darkrai EX Special Illustration Rare and the Mega Hyper Rare, both technically above $200. All other singles have fallen significantly from release highs. 00:00
  • Special Illustration Rares in Pitch Black have a pull rate of approximately 1 in 72 packs, meaning a sealed case of six booster boxes contains roughly three SIRs, giving any single box only a 50% chance of containing one. 11:58
  • Illustration Rares in the Mega Evolution block pull at 1 in 9 packs versus 1 in 12 packs during the Scarlet and Violet era, making them significantly cheaper; examples include the Chandelure IR at around $50, Gwyn IR at $40, Slowbro IR at $20, and Primarina IR at $7. 15:44

Recommendations

BUYPitch Black singles, particularly Illustration Rares priced below the cost of a single booster pack, as the creator states these represent good value and will only get cheaper with wave 2 supply incoming. 16:07
AVOIDAvoid rushing to buy Pitch Black sealed product or expensive singles right now, as the creator expects further price decreases over the next month once wave 2 hits distribution. 06:13

View Source  →  YouTube

From It Was Never A Phase Cards

Storm Emerald All Main Cards Revealed! + Pokemon Market Update

Jul 24, 2026  ·  21m 27s

Investment Thesis

It Was Never A Phase Cards covers the full Storm Emerald main set reveal, noting Mega Golisopod, Mega Golem, and Mega Malamar as likely SIR candidates alongside the near-certain Mega Rayquaza SIR. The market update tracks sharp price gains across multiple Rayquaza cards from Evolving Skies, Silver Tempest, and older XY sets, while flagging Golurk and Malamar cards as speculative movers with limited upside due to low Pokemon popularity.

Datapoints

  • The Rayquaza alternate art from Evolving Skies (card 98) is up 58% over the past few months, moving from roughly $600 a year ago to $1,250-$1,300 now; PSA 10s peaked at $3,000 recently and have settled around $2,800. 13:08
  • The Rayquaza V alternate art from Evolving Skies (card 194) is up 66% over the past 3 months and 178% on the year, rising from $192 a year ago to around $516, though momentum has slowed to only 2% in the past month. 14:12
  • The Golurk illustration rare from Black Bolt is up 94% over the past 3 months and 150% on the year, though a buyout event in May (68 copies sold in a single day) appears to have driven much of that move. 18:01

View Source  →  YouTube

These Pokemon 30th Packs Leaked Early & Market Update

Jul 23, 2026  ·  20m 26s

Investment Thesis

TJ covers early leaks from Pokemon 30th Anniversary Celebrations packs, confirming classic reprint cards can be pulled from standard packs (not only the Ultra Premium Collection), and delivers a broad market update. Rising cards include the Ditto prize pack stamp from 151, White Flare illustration rares, and Celebrations loose packs hitting new highs. Dropping cards include the Pikachu and Zekrom reprint-announcement spike and Ascended Heroes singles ahead of a Sam's Club wave two drop.

Datapoints

  • 30th Anniversary Celebrations booster bundles are listed at around $75 on eBay (pre-order) versus $120+ on TCG Player, where brick-and-mortar stores inflate pre-order prices; the October 2nd release date applies to the booster bundle, not the September 16th launch. 06:35
  • The Ditto prize pack stamp (card 132 from Scarlet & Violet 151) is up 78% in the past month to roughly $17, and up 372% year-over-year from $3; a single-day spike of 40 copies sold on July 6th is driving the recent move. 08:08
  • Celebrations loose packs have hit a new all-time high of around $41, up 128% year-over-year from $18, with the previous high at $35; White Flare loose packs are also at a new high near $17, up 100% year-over-year from $8, and Black Bolt loose packs are near $17 as well. 13:19
  • The Pikachu and Zekrom card spiked to around $127 after its 30th Anniversary reprint announcement but has since dropped 27% in the past month to roughly $65; it remains up 72% year-over-year from $37. 16:26
  • The Unbroken Bonds Snorlax holo has climbed nearly 70% over the past few months to around $80 (from $26 a year ago); in PSA 10 it has gone from $150 a year ago to $2,500, with only 130 PSA 10 copies in existence out of 846 total graded. 09:40

Recommendations

AVOIDTJ cautions that TCG Player pre-order prices for 30th Anniversary Celebrations booster bundles at $120+ are hyperinflated and will drop significantly at release; he advises waiting or using eBay pricing as a more accurate reference. 07:29
AVOIDTJ warns that a wave two Sam's Club drop of Ascended Heroes is expected in August, which should push singles and packs lower; he advises watching for that drop before buying. 17:24

View Source  →  YouTube

Ascended Heroes Sam's Club Drop Was A DISASTER! + Pokemon Market Update

Jul 22, 2026  ·  17m 56s

Investment Thesis

The Ascended Heroes Sam's Club drop devolved into a website-crashing disaster, with stock briefly pulled and then quietly restocked around 11 p.m. Pacific, catching most East Coast buyers asleep. Focus Fighter ETBs settled in the $200-$225 range on eBay post-drop. The broader market update covers continued price declines across Perfect Order, Chaos Rising, and Pitch Black singles and sealed, with a few early bounce signals on select cards.

Datapoints

  • Ascended Heroes Focus Fighter ETBs hit a low of around $213-$214 on TCGPlayer during the Sam's Club drop chaos, then recovered to a market price of $222 with listings around $240; eBay recent sales ranged $200-$225. 03:00
  • Perfect Order booster boxes are near MSRP at a market price of $168-$169 (MSRP ~$161); the Meowth SIR (number 121) has fallen roughly 25% from an all-time high of $200 to a new all-time low around $130-$132. 04:15
  • Chaos Rising booster boxes hit a new all-time low of $182 before bouncing to $186-$187; the Greninja SAR (number 116) dropped from an all-time high of $588 to a new all-time low of $237-$238, with PSA 10s falling from $2,600 to recent sales around $784. 08:03

Recommendations

BUYChaos Rising booster boxes at current near-MSRP pricing (~$186-$190) as a better sealed entry point than Perfect Order, given the stronger chase cards in the set. 09:40

View Source  →  YouTube

These Pokemon Promos Are At All Time Highs! Market Update

Jul 21, 2026  ·  18m 58s

Investment Thesis

TJ reviews price action on a range of Scarlet & Violet era promo cards and their source products. Highlights include the Greninja and Kingdra Shrouded Fable promos pulling back from all-time highs while their boxes surge past $200 and $175 respectively, the Van Gogh Pikachu hitting a new all-time high of $1,090, and Pokemon Center stamped cards from 151 and Obsidian Flames continuing to perform strongly year-over-year despite recent minor dips.

Datapoints

  • The Greninja promo (SVP 132) is down 16% over the past month to $104, but up 136% on the year from $40; its source Shrouded Fable promo box has risen nearly 40% over the past 3 months to a current market price of $210, up from $78 a year ago. 01:24
  • The Van Gogh Pikachu (with gray felt hat) has reached a new all-time high current market price of $1,090, up 175% from its 1-year low of $396; lowest listings sit at $1,020-$1,050 with a listed median price near $1,200. 04:28
  • The Haunter Rival Battle Deck promo (card 27) has a PSA population of 6,727 graded copies with only 533 receiving a PSA 10; most recent PSA 10 sale was approximately $1,300, illustrating extreme grading difficulty. 12:29

Recommendations

AVOIDTJ cautions that buying promo cards at all-time highs sets buyers up for significant drops, implying patience is warranted before entering positions on currently elevated promos. 15:53

View Source  →  YouTube

Ascended Heroes Drop TOMORROW! Full Info & Times!

Jul 20, 2026  ·  17m 02s

Investment Thesis

The Ascended Heroes Focused Fighters Premium Collection, a Sam's Club exclusive box containing 14 packs priced at $70 (limit two per Plus membership), drops July 21st in stores and online at 10 p.m. CST. The creator reviews secondary market pricing on the box and provides a broad Ascended Heroes singles and sealed update, noting most key cards and sealed products have pulled back from recent highs ahead of the new supply hitting the market.

Datapoints

  • The Ascended Heroes Focused Fighters Premium Collection (Sam's Club exclusive, 14 packs) is priced at $70 MSRP ($5 per pack), while pre-release eBay sales are showing comps of $210 to $220, with TCGPlayer listings at $250 and up. 02:58
  • Key Ascended Heroes singles have pulled back from recent highs: the Mega Gengar SIR is down 7% over the past month (from $1,450 to ~$1,277); the Treekachu is down 14% (from ~$1,400 to ~$1,175); the Mega Dragonite SIR 290 is down 10% (from $875 to ~$780); and Team Rocket's Mewtwo SIR 281 is down from $500 to ~$400. 09:16
  • Ascended Heroes sealed products have also softened: Pokemon Center ETBs are down from a ~$500 high to ~$460; regular ETBs are down from ~$180 to ~$170; booster bundles are down ~12% from nearly $100 to ~$84; and loose packs have dropped from ~$17 in late June to ~$13-$14. 11:23

Recommendations

BUYPursue the Ascended Heroes Focused Fighters Premium Collection at Sam's Club ($70 MSRP) given the secondary market price of $210-$220 and the strong historical performance of similar Sam's Club exclusive large-format boxes. 02:30
AVOIDWait on Ascended Heroes singles such as the Treekachu and Psyduck illustration rare, as the influx of new packs from the Focused Fighters box release is expected to push singles prices lower in the coming months. 10:40

View Source  →  YouTube

Which Pokemon Cards Are Seeing Big Drops? Market Update

Jul 19, 2026  ·  20m 51s

Investment Thesis

This market update from It Was Never A Phase Cards surveys Pokemon singles and sealed products that have dropped over the past 30 days. Highlights include a 27% drop on the Mega Charizard Y hyper rare from Ascended Heroes, new all-time lows for several Phantasmal Flames and Perfect Order cards, and rising prices on the Dragonite alternate art from Evolving Skies and select vintage cards from Legends Awakened.

Datapoints

  • The Mega Charizard Y hyper rare (number 294) from Ascended Heroes dropped 27% in the past month, falling from $626 to a market price of $450, with lowest listings also sitting around $450. The card has oscillated between $430 and $670 since release and is not far from its all-time low. 01:22
  • The Dragonite alternate art (number 192) from Evolving Skies is up approximately 38% over the past few months, hitting a new one-year high near $550-$560. PSA 10s peaked around $1,300 and have since pulled back to roughly $1,200; CGC Pristine 10s peaked at $2,000 and are now around $1,400. 18:01
  • The Ditto illustration rare (number 93) from Perfect Order has dropped 35% over the past 3 months to a new all-time low of around $5, with over 1,000 copies listed on TCG Player and nearly 1,700 sales in the past month. Supply is outpacing demand despite strong sales volume. 13:35

Recommendations

HOLDFirst Partner Illustration Collection Series 2 boxes are at a new all-time low of $39, and the creator notes it is 'not the worst pickup' for a long-term hold at this price point. 13:22

View Source  →  YouTube

From Top 10 Pokemon

MAJOR Price Spikes On These Graded Pokemon Cards!

Jul 21, 2026  ·  8m 00s

Investment Thesis

Top 10 Pokemon surveys 10 graded modern cards that spiked sharply in the past week. Highlights include the Terapagos EX SIR from Stellar Crown jumping from roughly $545 to $810 as a PSA 10, the Evolutions Charizard reprint surging to $8,300–$9,300 with only 600 PSA 10s out of 52,573 graded, and the Pokemon GO reverse holo Charizard climbing from $183 in February to nearly $1,000 on just 181 PSA 10 copies.

Datapoints

  • Terapagos EX SIR from Stellar Crown (PSA 10) rose from a long-term price of $140–$150, hit $545–$590 last month, and has now spiked to $799–$810 in the past week. 01:28
  • Evolutions Base Set Charizard reprint (PSA 10) jumped from $5,150–$5,700 to $8,300–$9,300 in the past week; the PSA pop report shows only 600 PSA 10 copies out of 52,573 total graded. 05:57
  • Pokemon GO reverse holo Charizard (PSA 10) climbed from $183 at end of February to ~$300 by end of April and is now selling for $810–$950, with only 181 PSA 10 copies on the pop report. 07:01

View Source  →  YouTube

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Disclaimers

This week: 26 videos across 10 channels. Browse the public archive at tcgcardinvestor.com.

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Creation of this newsletter is assisted by AI and may contain mistakes. Always verify each claim against the source video before acting on any recommendation.

This report is editorial commentary based on publicly-available content from independent creators. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or collectible, or a recommendation of any particular allocation. Trading-card markets are speculative, illiquid, and subject to material price swings driven by reprint cycles, grading-population changes, and shifts in collector sentiment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ratings (BUY / HOLD / SELL / AVOID) reflect the cited creator's view at the timestamp linked, not the publisher's view. Citation timestamps deep-link to the moment in the source video where the claim is made.

Compiled 2026-07-25 13:09  ·  TCG Card Investor  ·  Editorial digest, not investment advice