TCG Card Investor  ·  Weekly Briefing

TCG Card Investor

Weekly market intelligence on the Pokemon TCG

Vol. 2026 · Issue No. 13  ·  July 11 – 18, 2026

Hey friend, welcome to the hobby.

The Big Story

30th Anniversary Pokemon Center ETBs shadow-dropped at $60 MSRP and are already clearing $350 to $375 on eBay secondary market, with scalpers who bought current-era ETBs at $60 to $70 now panic-selling at $50 to $60 shipped. Pitch Black booster boxes hit an all-time low near $240 on release day, with the lowest listings at $204 and a sub-$200 print expected once second-wave distributor allocations land. Slab-buying companies that previously paid 90 to 92 percent of market value have quietly pulled back at shows, leaving graded-card sellers with no easy exit.

Key Market Trends

1.Pitch Black and Chaos Rising boxes converging below $200 as second wave arrives. Multiple creators tracked Pitch Black booster boxes hitting an all-time low near $240 on release day, with lowest listings at $204 and a sub-$200 floor expected once second-wave supply ships. Chaos Rising has already corrected to $185, roughly $20 to $25 above MSRP, and Perfect Order is selling under $180 from high-volume sellers, down from the low $220s. The consensus is that all three newest Mega Evolution booster boxes will settle near $180 once second-wave distributor allocations clear.
It Was Never A Phase Cards 02:46  ·  It Was Never A Phase Cards 16:45  ·  Nostalgia Nomics 00:32  ·  Nostalgia Nomics 00:43  ·  Danny Phantump 18:41  ·  AnonTCG 21:18
2.30th Anniversary set faces tighter-than-normal allocation despite record purchase orders. Purchase orders through distribution are approximately 30% higher than Ascended Heroes allocations, yet the rollout window is compressed to under two months versus Ascended Heroes' four-month window. Every distributor and retailer is requesting maximum quantities, which historically signals that launch supply will be overwhelmed by demand. AnonTCG estimates roughly 171 million total packs across all SKUs, with knockout collections carrying the tightest print run at approximately 160,000 units.
AnonTCG 05:09  ·  AnonTCG 08:33  ·  Alpha Investments 29:01  ·  AnonTCG 58:45
3.30th Anniversary Pokemon Center ETBs immediately trade at 5x to 6x MSRP on secondary market. The 30th Anniversary Pokemon Center ETBs shadow-dropped at $60 MSRP and within days were clearing $350 to $375 on eBay, with most sales clustering in the $300 to $400 range. Historical comps show Prismatic Evolutions PC ETBs launched around $245 and eventually climbed to $570, while Ascended Heroes PC ETBs pre-sold around $350, dropped to the low-to-mid $200s on release day, then recovered to $460 to $500. Multiple creators advise against chasing at current inflated prices.
It Was Never A Phase Cards 04:00  ·  It Was Never A Phase Cards 09:30  ·  It Was Never A Phase Cards 22:52  ·  AnonTCG 49:20
4.Older Scarlet and Violet booster boxes hitting one-year highs while newest Mega Evolution sets correct. Obsidian Flames booster boxes reached approximately $396, up 71% year-over-year, and Surging Sparks broke $300 for the first time since September. Meanwhile the correction is concentrated in the newest Mega Evolution releases: Perfect Order under $180, Chaos Rising near $185, and Pitch Black in the low $200s. Phantasmal Flames and mid-era Scarlet and Violet sets are holding firm, with Phantasmal Flames boxes still around $430 to $450.
It Was Never A Phase Cards 00:35  ·  It Was Never A Phase Cards 05:07  ·  Nostalgia Nomics 04:59  ·  Nostalgia Nomics 07:14
5.Current summer slowdown framed as seasonal, not structural, by multiple creators. AnonTCG and Nostalgia Nomics both argue the current market softness mirrors last summer's seasonal pattern, with consumer distraction during vacation season creating a perceived bear market before a September/October recovery. Nostalgia Nomics cites year-over-year ROI data showing Scarlet Violet ETBs up 131% and booster boxes up 64.5%, and notes no modern sealed box has ever crashed 50%. Alpha Investments offers a partial counterpoint, noting sealed Magic is broadly outperforming sealed Pokemon in 2026 and warning that 30 to 50% of market participants are leveraged flippers.
AnonTCG 01:43  ·  Nostalgia Nomics 05:24  ·  Nostalgia Nomics 07:02  ·  Alpha Investments 48:32

Consensus Calls

BUYChaos Rising booster boxes at current prices near $180 to $200 as a long-term entry point after the post-second-wave correction.
BUYBlack Bolt and White Flare sealed product (ETBs, Booster Bundles, Blisters) for steady appreciation; separately, buy discounted Mega Evolution sets when 30th Anniversary hype pulls money away and prices dip.
BUYIllustration rares from Ascended Heroes and other Mega Evolution sets at or near current lows, citing historical 100 to 300% gains on illustration rares from Twilight Masquerade, Temporal Forces, and Paradox Rift after those sets went out of print.
HOLDModern sealed product across Scarlet Violet, Sword and Shield, and Sun and Moon eras through the current summer softness, as year-over-year ROI data and historical correction depth support continued long-run outperformance.
AVOIDAvoid buying Pitch Black singles at launch, including the Mega Darkrai SR and illustration rares; prices are already falling on release day and a second product wave will push them lower.

If you found this useful, forward to a fellow collector or investor. Sharing helps the briefing reach the right audience.

Section 01

Market Commentary

Per-creator notes from market-commentary channels. Each section reflects one channel's published view; consensus across all channels is summarized in the briefing above.

From Alpha Investments

33 Years Later....It Finally happened.

Jul 18, 2026  ·  38m 07s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] Rudy (Alpha Investments) reports scalpers and botters panic-selling Pokemon ETBs at $50-$60 shipped after failing to flip them at $115+, and he is acquiring roughly 6,000 of them. He argues Pokemon 30th anniversary products will be a hit but supply will be tighter than a normal set, and contrasts Pokemon's sealed performance against Magic over the past 12 months while urging contrarian plays over chasing hot releases.

Datapoints

  • Scalpers and botters who purchased Pokemon ETBs at MSRP ($60-$70 with tax) hoping to flip at $115+ are now panic-selling at $50-$60 shipped, with Rudy acquiring approximately 6,000 ETBs from three separate sources at that price. 02:46
  • Over the last 12 months, sealed Magic the Gathering (both collector boxes and play/draft boxes) has broadly outperformed sealed Pokemon in returns, a trend Rudy attributes to extreme negativity that had suppressed Magic prices. 36:22
  • Pokemon 30th anniversary product allocation is expected to be tighter than a standard Pokemon set because every distributor and retailer is requesting maximum quantities, knowing demand will far exceed supply at launch. 29:01

Recommendations

BUYPokemon ETBs from panicking scalpers and botters at $50-$60 shipped, as Rudy is actively doing with roughly 6,000 units from distressed sellers. 02:46
BUYContrarian, currently unloved Pokemon sets (such as Chaos Rising ETBs near MSRP) rather than chasing the Pokemon 30th anniversary products that everyone is fighting over. 06:11

View Source  →  YouTube

Final Fantasy is Next.

Jul 13, 2026  ·  51m 37s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] Rudy argues that sealed Magic TCG products are currently outperforming sealed Pokemon in 2026, with Magic collector boxes skyrocketing while Scarlet & Violet era booster boxes remain rangebound. He suggests investor money is rotating from Pokemon into Magic and upcoming products like The Hobbit, and warns that 30-50% of Pokemon and Magic market participants are leveraged flippers who could accelerate a downturn if conditions shift.

Datapoints

  • Sealed Magic products are outperforming sealed Pokemon in 2026; Rudy describes this as 'a very very rare thing,' noting Magic's growth rate has been steady and powerful while Pokemon booster boxes from the Scarlet & Violet and modern eras are largely rangebound. 12:49
  • Scarlet & Violet era booster boxes (excluding the Charizard set, which popped from roughly $230 at release to $500) are sitting in the $300-$400 range, and Rudy sees little movement above that level for the foreseeable future. 18:39
  • Rudy estimates 30-50% of Pokemon and Magic market participants are flippers or leveraged speculators with no money, warning that if the music stops the market could shed serious layers rapidly. 48:32

View Source  →  YouTube

From Nostalgia Nomics

Pokemon Investing Bull Market FINALLY COMES TO AN END!

Jul 17, 2026  ·  17m 09s

Investment Thesis

Nostalgia Nomics declares the ultra-modern sealed bull market officially in correction territory, with Perfect Order booster boxes falling from the low $220s to under $180 and Pitch Black expected to follow. He argues the damage is concentrated in the newest Mega Evolution era sets while Sword and Shield, mid-Scarlet Violet, and Phantasmal Flames remain relatively stable. He recommends dollar-cost averaging into correcting sets for long-term holders rather than panic selling.

Datapoints

  • Perfect Order booster boxes are now listed and selling under $180 by high-volume sellers (50,000+ sales), down from the low $220s, representing roughly a 20% decline. 00:32
  • Chaos Rising is hovering just above $180 and Pitch Black released in the low $200s; both are expected to drop below $200 when second-wave distributor allocations arrive, likely settling near $180. 00:43
  • Ascended Heroes ETBs are still trading in the $170-$180 range, Phantasmal Flames booster boxes are holding at $430-$450, and Mega Evolution era boxes are in the low $300s, with Evolving Skies steady around $2,500 per box; the correction is largely contained to the newest Mega Evolution era releases. 04:59

Recommendations

BUYDollar-cost average into Perfect Order or Chaos Rising booster boxes at current corrected prices near $180 if you want a 3-5 year hold, buying a case at a time and adding more if prices dip further. 14:26
HOLDMaintain positions in out-of-print Sword and Shield and mid-Scarlet Violet era sealed product, as these sets are showing minimal price movement during the current correction. 16:10

View Source  →  YouTube

HUGE Pokemon Investment Opportunities!

Jul 16, 2026  ·  15m 48s

Investment Thesis

Nostalgia Nomics surveys illustration rare singles and sealed boxes across the Mega Evolution era, arguing that cards from Phantasmal Flames, Ascended Heroes, and Chaos Rising are near or at all-time lows and represent long-term buying opportunities. He supports the thesis with price-appreciation data from Twilight Masquerade, Temporal Forces, and Paradox Rift illustration rares, and flags the Mega Evolution box-topper Bulbasaur as a standout play given its low gem rate and raw price relative to graded comps.

Datapoints

  • Illustration rares from Twilight Masquerade, Temporal Forces, and Paradox Rift have seen 100-300% gains after going out of print: Chansey (Twilight Masquerade) doubled from $27 to $55 in 6 months; Sawsbuck (Temporal Forces) went from $33 to nearly $60 in 6 months; Cinccino (Temporal Forces) went from $10 to $44, a roughly 4x gain; Plusle and Minun (Paradox Rift) each doubled from around $20 to over $40. 07:17
  • The Mega Evolution box-topper Bulbasaur is currently selling raw for $20 while its PSA 10 grade trades at $850; the gem rate is 1,577 out of 21,000 submitted copies, under a 10% gem rate, making it extremely difficult to grade. 11:43
  • Chaos Rising booster boxes have officially dropped below $200 and Perfect Order boxes are now in the $180s; the creator expects Pitch Black to fall into the low $200s on release and potentially under $200 after its second wave, noting that breaking the $200 floor sets a new precedent for weaker sets. 12:22

Recommendations

BUYIllustration rares from Ascended Heroes (Erika's Tangela near $20, Marill at $13, Cynthia's Spiritomb at $11, Giovanni's Dugtrio at $10) as they trade at or below the cost of a single booster pack from the set and the creator believes they will be sought-after in 2-4 years. 05:16
BUYThe raw Mega Evolution box-topper Bulbasaur at approximately $20 and the Mega Evolution booster box, which the creator considers undervalued given the card's sub-10% PSA 10 gem rate and $850 graded comp. 12:11
AVOIDWait on Pitch Black booster boxes; the creator expects prices to fall further into the low $200s or potentially under $200 after the second wave. 13:41

View Source  →  YouTube

Pitch Black Is HERE! TIME TO BUY? OR PASS?

Jul 14, 2026  ·  13m 02s

Investment Thesis

Nostalgia Nomics reviews Pitch Black on its opening night, reporting strong sales that beat Chaos Rising launch numbers. The creator expects Pitch Black booster boxes to settle in the $200-$210 range as second-wave supply arrives, mirroring the price trajectories of Chaos Rising and Perfect Order. He also covers 30th Anniversary ETBs and UPCs, calling GameStop pre-order pricing fair and projecting ETBs to hit $120-$150 at release.

Datapoints

  • Pitch Black sold over 1,000 packs on opening night, surpassing Chaos Rising's opening-night sales record for the channel. 00:33
  • Pitch Black booster boxes are pre-selling at $249.99 on TCG Player but can be found on eBay for $220-$230; Chaos Rising has corrected to the low $200s after its second wave, and Perfect Order has similarly dropped to the low $200s with some auction sales below $200. 03:37
  • Phantasmal Flames booster boxes still sell for around $440 despite having only two Charizard cards above $100, with the third-largest hit in the set valued at just $30, illustrating that a shallow hit list does not prevent strong box prices. 08:10

Recommendations

BUYPitch Black booster boxes if you can find them around $200, after the second wave brings prices down from current $220-$250 levels. 11:44
BUYChaos Rising booster boxes at current prices around $200, as the creator views the post-second-wave correction as a strong long-term entry point. 11:47
AVOIDAvoid pre-ordering 30th Anniversary ETBs on TCG Player at $238; wait for eBay listings closer to $200 or secure GameStop pre-orders at $100 if still available. 10:01

View Source  →  YouTube

Pokemon Investing Panic Sets In... Bull Market At An End!?

Jul 13, 2026  ·  11m 08s

Investment Thesis

Nostalgia Nomics pushes back against summer panic selling in the Pokemon sealed market, arguing that modern sealed product has historically shown less volatility than stocks, gold, real estate, and crypto. He cites ROI data showing Scarlet Violet ETBs up 131% and booster boxes up 64.5% year-over-year, and notes that no modern sealed box has ever crashed 50% the way other asset classes have.

Datapoints

  • Specialty ETB performance from July 2025 to 2026: Scarlet Violet era ETBs returned 131.3% ROI, Sword and Shield 104%, and Sun and Moon 32%. 07:02
  • Booster box performance over the same period: Scarlet Violet 64.5% ROI, Sword and Shield 37.3%, Sun and Moon 24.8%; combined ROI across all sets was 78.5%, 43.6%, and 25.4% respectively. 07:14
  • Evolving Skies booster boxes have corrected roughly 20% from peak (approximately $2,600 down to the $2,100s), and Lost Origin booster boxes dropped from around $800-$900 to the $600s, a roughly 25-30% correction; the creator notes no modern sealed box has ever crashed 50%. 05:24

Recommendations

HOLDModern Pokemon sealed product across Scarlet Violet, Sword and Shield, and Sun and Moon eras, as the creator argues current summer softness is seasonal and the long-run data supports continued outperformance versus other asset classes. 10:00

View Source  →  YouTube

From AnonTCG

Pokémon is tanking and Magic is booming?? A whip around the TCG Space!

Jul 18, 2026  ·  27m 20s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] On release day for Black Bolt, AnonTCG notes ETBs are trading around $150-$215 with a second wave expected. He argues the current market slowdown mirrors last summer's seasonal pattern and will recover in September/October. He is bullish on 30th Anniversary packs, citing a $15 floor on loose pack prices and ultra-rare monochrome cards (Mewtwo, Mew, Pikachu) at roughly 1-in-30,000 pull rates that he expects to fetch $2,000-$5,000 each.

Datapoints

  • Black Bolt ETBs are trading around $150-$215 on release day, with Pokemon Center ETBs available for approximately $120; booster bundles have been heavily discounted by botters dumping product at $35. 00:15
  • 30th Anniversary loose packs have no SKU currently priced below $20, and the creator sees a floor of $15 even accounting for poster collections adding supply; three monochrome chase cards (Mewtwo, Mew, Pikachu) are estimated at roughly a 1-in-30,000 pull rate, appearing only in god packs. 03:50
  • The current Pokemon market slowdown matches the same seasonal pattern as last summer: consumer distraction during vacation season causes a perceived bear market, followed by recovery in September/October and a holiday surge. 01:43

Recommendations

BUYBlack Bolt ETBs when the anticipated second wave arrives, as the creator expects it sooner than the Perfect Order/Chaos Rising wave two timeline. 03:20
BUY30th Anniversary monochrome chase cards (Mewtwo, Mew, Pikachu) if acquirable, as the creator believes their ~1-in-30,000 pull rate makes current prices undervalued relative to a $2,000-$5,000 fair value. 05:09

View Source  →  YouTube

This week's Pokémon, Magic the Gathering, One Piece and other TCG Distribution Update!

Jul 13, 2026  ·  17m 29s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] AnonTCG's weekly distribution update covers a quiet period between Pokemon sets. Wave two of Prismatic Evolutions ETBs and booster bundles, Perfect Order and Chaos Rising booster boxes, and Pitch Black ETBs and three-pack blisters are all shipping imminently. The creator flags the upcoming Rayquaza set (Delta Reigns in English) as a potential top-tier Mega Evolution release, and notes a long runway of strong products through 2027 including a possible Team Rocket set.

Datapoints

  • Wave two of Prismatic Evolutions (ETBs and booster bundles), Perfect Order and Chaos Rising booster boxes, and Pitch Black ETBs and three-pack blisters are all shipping from distributors on Friday, Monday, and Tuesday of the current week. 11:46
  • The upcoming Rayquaza set (Japanese name Storm Emeralda, English name Delta Reigns, targeting a November 8th release) is projected to be the best or tied with Phantasmal Flames for the best standard Mega Evolution set to date. 12:54
  • The Pokemon TCG pipeline through 2027 includes Pitch Black (set 5), the Rayquaza set (set 6), a Lucario set (set 7), a 7.5 specialty set, and trademarks filed for a Team Rocket set and a Mega X set, suggesting sustained product momentum well past the 30th anniversary. 13:53

View Source  →  YouTube

DJ Anon's Sunday Shhhhshow

Jul 12, 2026  ·  1h 14m

Investment Thesis

AnonTCG and a store-owner guest cover a wide range of Pokemon market topics: 30th Anniversary print-run estimates, GameStop's forced price cut on Destined Rivals, Pokemon's decision to cut English product supply to Latin America starting 2027, the Mega Evolution set release roadmap through 2028, and near-term price expectations for 30th Anniversary ETBs and Ultra Premium Collections.

Datapoints

  • Pokemon's internal factory goal for the 30th Anniversary set is 1.4 million packs per day, roughly double the normal daily target of 700,000, though the creator believes they have not consistently hit that rate due to bottlenecks including card-cutting issues and production downtime. 02:55
  • Pokemon has notified all Latin American distributors that starting 2027 it will no longer ship English Pokemon product to Latin America, cutting off the supply channel that allows some stores to break boxes weeks ahead of the official release date. 1:09:39
  • 30th Anniversary allocation for the creator's accounts is approximately 30% higher than Ascended Heroes allocations were, assuming steady distributor spend. 58:45

Recommendations

BUYPerfect Order, Chaos Rising, and Pitch Black booster boxes in roughly one month, after 30th Anniversary hype pulls money away and prices on those sets get 'hammered.' 27:33
HOLD30th Anniversary ETBs; the creator does not see them going below $200 at release and projects $220-$250, with Ultra Premium Collections likely reaching $500-$600. 48:24

View Source  →  YouTube

DJ & Anon's Sunday Shhhhshow

Jul 12, 2026  ·  1h 14m

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] AnonTCG and DJ discuss 30th anniversary set dynamics, estimating ETBs at $200-250 and UPCs at $500-600 at release, with 20-40 cards projected at $100 or more. They cover Ascended Heroes print volume (~80 million packs), Pokemon forcing GameStop to cut prices, the end of English product exports to Latin America starting 2027, and current sealed market strategy favoring discounted Mega Evolution sets over new releases.

Datapoints

  • Pokemon's internal factory goal for the 30th anniversary set is 180 million packs, versus a normal daily goal of 700,000 packs and 1.4 million for the 30th; Ascended Heroes accounts for roughly 60% of that 180 million figure, implying approximately 80 million Ascended Heroes packs. 02:42
  • 30th anniversary set spoilers show 20 to 40 cards projected at $100 or more, and every pack is expected to contain a Pikachu variant; ETBs are not expected to be seen below $200 at release, with UPCs projected at $500-600 based on pack count and included promos. 49:20
  • Pokemon notified all Latin American distributors that starting 2027 it will no longer ship English Pokemon product to Latin America, cutting off a major source used by large importers and by stores that break boxes 3 weeks ahead of release. 1:09:39

Recommendations

BUYDiscounted Chaos Rising and Perfect Order booster boxes when the incoming second wave causes prices to drop, as the creator sees that dip as the right entry point. 21:18
SELLCurrent Pokemon sealed inventory now if acquired at cost, as the creator states he is selling all his Pokemon at roughly 2.25x cost and rotating proceeds into other product. 28:00

View Source  →  YouTube

Pokémon 30th Anniversary Estimated Production! Look at those spoilers today melting faces.

Jul 12, 2026  ·  19m 20s

Investment Thesis

AnonTCG breaks down estimated production numbers for the Pokemon 30th Anniversary set, projecting roughly 180 million total packs across multiple SKUs and release waves. He details unit counts for ETBs, Ultra Premium Collections, booster bundles, and other products, notes that purchase orders through distribution are approximately 30% higher than Ascended Heroes, and flags that the knockout collections carry the tightest print run of any SKU.

Datapoints

  • Purchase orders through distribution for the 30th Anniversary set are approximately 30% higher than they were for Ascended Heroes, and the rollout window is compressed to under two months (September 16 to November 16) versus Ascended Heroes' four-month window. 05:09
  • Estimated North American production: approximately 1.5 million Ultra Premium Collections (light and dark each), 2.5 million Elite Trainer Boxes, 240,000 EX boxes, 160,000 knockout collection units (the tightest print run), 1.75 million booster bundles, and 440,000 mini tin displays, totaling an estimated 171 million packs across all SKUs. 08:33
  • The super hyper-chase cards (Pikachu, Mewtwo, Mew) are estimated to be 1-in-10,000 god-pack exclusives, implying roughly 18,000 copies of each; AnonTCG projects these cards could trade between $5,000 and $25,000 in high grade. 03:13

Recommendations

BUY30th Anniversary Ultra Premium Collections if they touch $400 on the open market, as AnonTCG estimates their intrinsic pack value alone supports a $600 floor. 17:35

View Source  →  YouTube

From The Poke Plumber

I Wasn’t Ready For This…These Pokemon SETS HAVE POTENTIAL!

Jul 15, 2026  ·  14m 48s

Investment Thesis

The Poke Plumber recaps a conversation with a local comic/card shop owner about supply tightness across Scarlet and Violet sets, noting that Black Bolt and White Flare continue to tick upward while Destined Rivals ETBs have pulled back sharply. He also flags growing breaker interest in XY and Sun and Moon sealed product as a potential catalyst, and expresses interest in Mega Evolution Base and Phantasmal Flames if reprints do not materialize.

Datapoints

  • Destined Rivals ETBs have dropped roughly in half, falling from around $300 down to $140-$150, with some sellers offering them below $150 as supply has flooded the market. 07:43
  • A local shop owner reports being short on Paldea Evolved, Scarlet and Violet Base, and Stellar Crown booster boxes, with stores actively seeking and buying up available supply. 06:39
  • Large whatnot breakers who previously focused on vintage product are now shifting attention to XY and Sun and Moon sealed product; individual packs such as Breakpoint and Breakthrough are trading around $30 each. 11:42

Recommendations

BUYBlack Bolt and White Flare sealed product (ETBs, Booster Bundles, Blisters), as the creator sees continuous price appreciation even during slow market conditions and does not expect additional print runs. 07:22
BUYDestined Rivals ETBs at current depressed prices, as the creator views the pullback to the $140-$150 range as a no-brainer entry point. 08:43
BUYPaldea Evolved booster boxes, which the creator considers an S-tier set with 84 hits and ongoing store-level demand driving prices higher. 07:01

View Source  →  YouTube

Pokémon Recession?! BUY, SELL, OR HOLD?!

Jul 13, 2026  ·  36m 17s

Investment Thesis

The Poke Plumber recaps Collecticon, reporting a clear market slowdown with sellers outnumbering buyers and slab-buying companies pulling back. He sees strong sealed buying opportunities across XY, Sword and Shield, and Celebrations ETBs, while flagging the 30th anniversary set as a potential catalyst. He cautions against chasing Ascended Heroes SIRs and modern alt arts while PSA supply remains elevated.

Datapoints

  • Destined Rivals ETBs dropped from roughly $300 to $150 after reprint product hit the market, with further declines to $110-$120 possible as more inventory arrives. 23:42
  • At Collecticon, slab-buying companies that previously paid 90-92% of market value have halted or significantly reduced purchases, creating a ripple effect as sellers can no longer easily liquidate graded cards at near-market prices. 05:21
  • Celebrations ETBs were available at the show for $315 each, and Prismatic Evolutions Super Premium Collections are described as 'dirt cheap' at current market prices. 10:30

Recommendations

BUYCelebrations ETBs at current depressed prices, as the 30th anniversary release is likely to push them to all-time highs. 10:57
BUYEvolving Skies booster boxes and Sword and Shield sealed product broadly, as both eras are flat to down and represent strong value at current levels. 21:55
AVOIDAvoid Ascended Heroes SIRs for now, as PSA continues releasing graded copies into the market and prices are still declining. 35:31

View Source  →  YouTube

Section 02

Singles & Auction Prices

Latest singles and auction price changes from channels that track specific cards, eBay sales, and grading population shifts. Data-heavy by design; recommendations only where the creator made one.

From Danny Phantump

The TRUTH About Pitch Black Pull Rates! (BEST SET EVER)

Jul 17, 2026  ·  20m 10s

Investment Thesis

Danny Phantump breaks down Pitch Black pull rates across 1,584 packs (44 booster boxes) opened by himself and a local store. Key findings: 14-16 hits per booster box, illustration rares at roughly 1 per 8-9 packs, special illustration rares at 1 per 66 packs, and the Mega Hyper Rare gold Darkrai at approximately 1 per 792 packs. He advises patience on singles as prices are already dipping.

Datapoints

  • Across 1,584 packs (44 booster boxes) of Pitch Black, the average hit rate is 14-16 hits per booster box, with some openers reporting 17. By comparison, XY and Black & White era booster boxes yielded only 4-5 ultra rares per box. 13:00
  • Pitch Black illustration rare pull rate is approximately 1 per 8-9 packs (4.14 per booster box), improved from the Scarlet & Violet block rate of 1 per 12 packs. Special illustration rares land at roughly 1 per 66 packs, down from 1 per 45 packs in 151 and Paradox Rift, and the Mega Hyper Rare gold Darkrai pulled at 1 per 792 packs in this sample. 14:22
  • Singles from earlier Mega Evolution sets Chaos Rising and Perfect Order have dropped considerable amounts over the past several weeks, and Pitch Black singles are already beginning to dip on TCGPlayer on release day. 18:41

Recommendations

BUYIf you are pursuing a Pitch Black master set, pick up product at MSRP or below to open now, then wait several weeks after the second wave to buy remaining singles at their price floor. 17:50
AVOIDBe patient and avoid overspending on Pitch Black singles at launch; a second product wave is coming in a few weeks and prices are already dropping, with further declines expected once attention shifts to the 30th Anniversary set. 18:48

View Source  →  YouTube

Is Now FINALLY The Time To Buy Ascended Heroes Pokemon Cards?

Jul 12, 2026  ·  28m 08s

Investment Thesis

Danny Phantump runs a detailed fun-cost analysis on Ascended Heroes, comparing current market prices to pull-rate-derived break-even values. He finds that opening product at current secondary-market prices costs roughly $6.64 per pack in expected losses, and that buying the full master set via singles on TCGPlayer runs about $7,500. He also tracks significant price drops on key singles like Mega Gengar and Mega Dragonite over the past few months.

Datapoints

  • Ascended Heroes loose booster packs are currently selling for approximately $14.02 on TCGPlayer, booster bundles for $84.62, and Elite Trainer Boxes for $167.47; the break-even pack price based on average pull value is $7.38, meaning the average expected loss is $6.64 per pack opened at market price. 24:28
  • The Mega Gengar Mega Attack Rare has dropped roughly 30-40% from a peak of $92-$105 (observed at Card Party San Diego a few months ago) to $63.80 currently; the Mega Dragonite special illustration rare has also fallen from above $60 to $46.65. 14:43
  • Ascended Heroes special illustration rares have declined only about 10% over the past couple of months, and the full master set costs approximately $7,500 to complete via singles on TCGPlayer; $7,500 spent on packs at current market prices would yield on average only about five special illustration rares. 26:29

Recommendations

BUYAscended Heroes illustration rares and lower-rarity singles (many priced $2-$15) now, before attention shifts to the 30th Celebration set and Delta Rain, which could briefly soften prices further but supply replenishment on the secondary market remains slow. 04:28
AVOIDDo not open Ascended Heroes Elite Trainer Boxes or booster bundles at current market prices, as the average expected loss is $101.09 per ETB and $40.34 per booster bundle; buy singles instead. 25:04

View Source  →  YouTube

From It Was Never A Phase Cards

Pitch Black Price Crash | Pokemon Market Update

Jul 17, 2026  ·  22m 18s

Investment Thesis

On Pitch Black's release morning, the creator surveys broad price drops across sealed product and singles. The Mega Darkrai SR peaked around $400–$500 in pre-release and is already sliding toward $368 and lower. Booster boxes hit a new all-time low near $240, ETBs fell to $82, and nearly every illustration rare is declining. The creator also checks in on Chaos Rising, whose booster box has dropped to $185, close to MSRP.

Datapoints

  • Mega Darkrai SR (number 116) peaked around $500 during pre-release, hit $400 on TCG Player, and on release morning shows a market price of $389 with 41 copies listed and lowest listings at $368. 00:35
  • Pitch Black booster boxes hit a new all-time low of approximately $240 on release day, down from pre-order prices around $300, with lowest listings at $204 and the creator expecting a drop below $200. 02:46
  • Chaos Rising booster boxes have dropped to $185, only about $20–$25 above MSRP, making them among the cheapest modern booster boxes on the secondary market. 16:45

Recommendations

BUYConsider picking up one or two Pitch Black booster boxes for ripping or sealed collection purposes once they reach their all-time low, given The Pokemon Company does not reprint booster boxes. 03:16
AVOIDWait on Pitch Black singles including the Mega Darkrai SR, Morpeko SR, and illustration rares, as supply is still rising on release day and prices are expected to continue falling. 01:14
AVOIDAvoid overpaying for Pitch Black ETBs or Pokemon Center ETBs on the secondary market; wait to see if prices drop further, and only buy at or near MSRP locally if available. 09:31

View Source  →  YouTube

30th Anniversary Pokémon Center ETBs Just Dropped (Prices Are Insane)

Jul 16, 2026  ·  16m 54s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] The 30th Anniversary Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box shadow-dropped and immediately hit $300-$400 on eBay secondary market, a steep premium over the $60 MSRP. The creator reviews early pricing across all three products that dropped (PC ETB, Tech Sticker Collection, Knockout Collection), compares trajectories to Prismatic Evolutions and Ascended Heroes PC ETBs, and advises patience before buying at inflated pre-release prices.

Datapoints

  • 30th Anniversary Pokemon Center ETBs (MSRP $60) are already selling on eBay in the $300-$400 range within days of the shadow drop, with most recent sales clustering around $350-$375. 04:00
  • Tech Sticker Collections are listed at $83 (lowest) on TCGPlayer but selling around $40 on eBay; the creator attributes the TCGPlayer inflation to brick-and-mortar-only pre-sale listing rules, which reset on September 16th when all sellers can list. 07:00
  • Prismatic Evolutions PC ETBs launched around $245, ran to $400, pulled back to $315, then climbed to $570 before settling near $500; Ascended Heroes PC ETBs pre-sold around $350, dropped to the low-to-mid $200s on release day, and have since risen to approximately $460-$500. 09:30

Recommendations

AVOIDThe creator advises against buying 30th Anniversary products at current inflated secondary market prices, recommending patience and waiting to secure product at MSRP from other retailers rather than FOMO-buying pre-orders. 12:09
AVOIDIf buying the 30th Anniversary PC ETB purely to open packs, the creator says that is not the play at $300-$400 secondary market prices and suggests waiting for other products at MSRP instead. 10:14

View Source  →  YouTube

Pokemon Center Queue SOON!? More 30th Dropping?!

Jul 16, 2026  ·  43m 28s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] The creator streamed a live Pokemon Center queue attempt for 30th Anniversary products, only to discover the drop was Germany-only. He recaps the prior day's successful ETB drop, notes secondary market prices for Pokemon Center ETBs are already elevated on eBay, and speculates on future 30th Anniversary product drops including UPCs and booster bundles.

Datapoints

  • Pokemon Center 30th Anniversary ETBs from the prior day's drop are already appearing on eBay at high secondary market prices, though some listings may be premature since sellers are not supposed to list items shipping more than 40 days out. 22:52
  • The creator reports a rumor that more ETBs were printed for the 30th Anniversary set than during the entire Mega Evolution era combined. 11:43
  • The creator notes Pokemon Center has previously run multiple ETB drops for the same set, citing Prismatic Evolutions and Ascended Heroes as examples, but considers a second 30th Anniversary ETB drop unlikely given the high volume already released. 36:46

Recommendations

AVOIDThe creator does not recommend chasing 30th Anniversary Pokemon Center ETBs on the secondary market, implying the elevated eBay prices make it a poor buy at this stage. 36:37

View Source  →  YouTube

Is The Summer Slump Even That Bad? Pokemon Market Update

Jul 14, 2026  ·  22m 34s

Investment Thesis

It Was Never A Phase Cards surveys the summer slump across singles, sealed, and graded Pokemon cards. First Partner Promo Series 2 boxes are down 59% in three months, Scarlet & Violet 151 booster bundles sit at a three-month low, and multiple SIRs are approaching or setting new all-time lows. Japanese art rares from Black Bolt, White Flare, and Temporal Forces are bucking the trend with triple-digit percentage gains on the year.

Datapoints

  • First Partner Promo Series 2 boxes are down 59% over the past three months and 41% in the past month alone, with a current market price of $39.34, down from a high of around $65-$70. 01:53
  • Scarlet & Violet 151 booster bundles are at a three-month low of approximately $170, down from an all-time high of $240, though the listed median price remains at $215; bundles were $74 a year ago, representing a 131% gain on the year. 10:02
  • The N's Zekrom Pokemon Center stamped promo from Ascended Heroes (number 31) has only 49 PSA 10s out of 1,037 graded copies, with the most recent PSA 10 sale at $4,500, down from a June peak of $6,500. 13:19

Recommendations

BUYScarlet & Violet 151 booster bundles at current prices around $170 are a reasonable entry for sealed collectors, as the listed median of $215 suggests a likely bounce back. 10:46
AVOIDWait on the Meowth SIR (Perfect Order number 121) as 297 copies are listed on TCGPlayer, a buyout attempt failed, and a new all-time low below $132 appears imminent. 07:25
AVOIDWait on the Tropius SIR from Stellar Crown as the buyout-driven spike is unwinding and the card looks likely to continue dropping. 15:01

View Source  →  YouTube

These Older Sets Are SURGING Right Now | Scarlet Violet Market Update

Jul 12, 2026  ·  20m 28s

Investment Thesis

TJ reviews sealed and singles price performance across four older Scarlet and Violet sets: Obsidian Flames, Surging Sparks, Stellar Crown, and Twilight Masquerade. Booster boxes across all four are hitting new one-year highs despite a summer slowdown, while key illustration rares and special illustration rares show strong year-over-year gains even as some pull back modestly from recent peaks.

Datapoints

  • Obsidian Flames booster boxes have climbed to a new one-year high of approximately $396, up 71% from around $231 a year ago and approaching the $400 mark. 00:35
  • Surging Sparks booster boxes broke the $300 mark for the first time since September, rising from $240 in April to $308 currently, a new one-year high; the set received a large reprint that previously suppressed prices. 05:07
  • Twilight Masquerade booster boxes hit a new one-year high of $366, but demand is thin: only 51 boxes sold in the past month against 328 listed, explaining the slower 30% annual growth versus other sets covered. 15:33

Recommendations

BUYSurging Sparks booster boxes for a long-term hold of 5 to 10 years, as the set heavily features Pikachu and benefits from ongoing 30th-anniversary attention. 05:37

View Source  →  YouTube

From Top 10 Pokemon

Top 10 EXPENSIVE Pitch Black Pokemon Cards!

Jul 14, 2026  ·  8m 00s

Investment Thesis

Top 10 Pokemon reviews pre-release card prices for the upcoming Mega Evolution Pitch Black set, releasing July 17th. The set contains 84 cards with few secret rares and is notably trainer-heavy in terms of value. The creator walks through the top 10 most expensive pre-release singles, with the SIR Mega Darkrai EX topping the list after dropping from $920 to around $360, and advises against opening sealed product at current prices.

Datapoints

  • Mega Evolution Pitch Black sealed product pre-order prices: booster bundle at approximately $60, Elite Trainer Box at approximately $100, and booster box at approximately $255. 01:35
  • The SIR Mega Darkrai EX from Mega Evolution Pitch Black initially sold for approximately $920 at pre-release, then dropped to approximately $360-$364 within one to two weeks. 06:54
  • The set is trainer-heavy in terms of value: the SIR Gwen sold for ~$65, SIR Gladion's Final Battle for ~$58, and the full art ultra rare Misty's Vitality dropped from ~$61 to ~$41-$46. 03:35

Recommendations

BUYPurchase Mega Evolution Pitch Black singles raw rather than opening booster boxes at $255, as most pre-release cards are extremely affordable individually. 07:21

View Source  →  YouTube

Was this forwarded?

Subscribe for free, every Saturday →

One email per week. Unsubscribe anytime.

Disclaimers

This week: 21 videos across 7 channels. Browse the public archive at tcgcardinvestor.com.

Sponsorship enquiries or feedback: hello@tcgcardinvestor.com

Creation of this newsletter is assisted by AI and may contain mistakes. Always verify each claim against the source video before acting on any recommendation.

This report is editorial commentary based on publicly-available content from independent creators. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or collectible, or a recommendation of any particular allocation. Trading-card markets are speculative, illiquid, and subject to material price swings driven by reprint cycles, grading-population changes, and shifts in collector sentiment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ratings (BUY / HOLD / SELL / AVOID) reflect the cited creator's view at the timestamp linked, not the publisher's view. Citation timestamps deep-link to the moment in the source video where the claim is made.

Compiled 2026-07-18 13:09  ·  TCG Card Investor  ·  Editorial digest, not investment advice