TCG Card Investor  ·  Weekly Briefing

TCG Card Investor

Weekly market intelligence on the Pokemon TCG

Vol. 2026 · Issue No. 09  ·  June 13 – 20, 2026

Hey friend, welcome to the hobby.

The Big Story

Chaos Rising illustration rares have collapsed 45–90% in a single month, with cards like Tauros IR down over 90% overall and now trading below the $7 cost of a booster pack. At card shows from Kansas City to upstate New York, sealed product across every era is stalling while graded slabs change hands at 80–95% of market, a dynamic that two years ago would have been unthinkable. The Pokemon Company has made zero meaningful attempt to increase booster box supply in two years, keeping print runs deliberately tight while short-term flippers targeting 30–40% margins prop up prices that may not survive their exit.

Key Market Trends

1.Chaos Rising and Perfect Order singles in freefall as launch hype evaporates. Multiple creators documented sharp declines across Chaos Rising and Perfect Order illustration rares and SIRs. Chaos Rising IRs including Xerneas, Ampharos, and Frogadier are down 45–67% in a month, with Tauros IR off over 90% overall to $5.80. The Mega Greninja SIR launched at ~$600 and has fallen to a new all-time low of ~$338, while Perfect Order SIRs like Rosa's Encouragement and AZ's Tranquility are down 60–68% over three months.
Top 10 Pokemon 01:39  ·  Top 10 Pokemon 05:50  ·  It Was Never A Phase Cards 17:35
2.Sealed product stalling at shows while graded slabs dominate transactions. At card shows in Kansas City and upstate New York, vendors across multiple creators reported sealed Pokemon product failing to move at any price point, from booster boxes and ETBs to tins spanning Scarlet and Violet through vintage. Graded slabs were the dominant transaction format, with vendors buying at 80–85% and flipping to bulk buyers at 90%, while sellers refused to go below 92–95% even on large bulk deals. One creator noted that roughly 60% of vendors at a recent show reported slower-than-usual sales.
Nostalgia Nomics 04:57  ·  Nostalgia Nomics 03:00  ·  The Poke Plumber 04:19  ·  Collect Pokemon 07:26
3.TPC deliberate supply restriction is the sole floor under modern booster box prices. Two creators independently concluded that The Pokemon Company has made no meaningful effort to increase booster box supply over roughly two years, keeping print runs artificially tight while continuing to produce ancillary products. Stores are receiving allocations as small as one booster case and one ETB case per location, forcing immediate sell-through at near-market prices with little margin. Both creators warn that when short-term flippers targeting 30–40% margins can no longer profit, they will exit and leave long-term holders exposed.
Alpha Investments 37:25  ·  Alpha Investments 35:21  ·  The Poke Plumber 04:12
4.Rayquaza hype cycle driving broad appreciation across eras ahead of Delta Reign. The Delta Reign (English Rayquaza) set announcement for November 6th has triggered appreciation across Rayquaza cards spanning multiple eras. Gold Star Rayquaza PSA 9s have risen from $7,000–$8,000 to as high as $33,000, with PSA 10s exceeding $50,000. The Rayquaza VMAX alt art from Evolving Skies crossed $1,000 raw and is listed at $1,400–$1,500, while Evolving Skies booster boxes are up 42% year-over-year to ~$2,700. The Roaring Skies Rayquaza EX PSA 10 is selling for $31,000 with a pop of only 116.
It Was Never A Phase Cards 02:57  ·  It Was Never A Phase Cards 03:46  ·  The Poke Plumber 04:00
5.30th anniversary set generating broad bullish consensus with caution on launch hype. Multiple creators flagged the 30th anniversary set as a major upcoming catalyst, with the rumored $200 MSRP Ultra Premium Collection drawing comparisons to the Celebrations UPC, which launched at ~$120 and is now approaching $1,000. Christy Holds rated herself 6–7 out of 10 bullish, citing nostalgia and strong card reveals, while Collect Pokemon is targeting 100 copies of each 30th anniversary Pikachu single. Alpha Investments and Nostalgia Nomics both warned that universal buy-the-rumor hype is itself a risk signal.
Christy Holds 00:42  ·  Collect Pokemon 13:36  ·  Alpha Investments 42:11  ·  Nostalgia Nomics 08:18

Consensus Calls

BUYOlder out-of-print Sword and Shield era sealed product including Lost Origin, Silver Tempest, Crown Zenith, Chilling Reign, and Brilliant Stars, which multiple creators view as undervalued relative to the broader bull market.
BUYBlack Bolt and White Flare sealed product and singles, which multiple creators identify as undervalued with limited supply, no confirmed reprint, and illustration rares like Seismitoad hitting new all-time highs.
BUYBooster boxes as the core position of a Pokemon investing portfolio, prioritizing them over loose packs, tins, and collection boxes from the same set, a principle endorsed by multiple long-term holders.
AVOIDAvoid chasing FOMO-driven hype on Destined Rivals, Phantasmal Flames, and Ascended Heroes PSA 10 singles at current elevated prices; multiple creators expect continued price correction as supply and high PSA 10 pop counts become more widely understood.
AVOIDDo not pay current prices of $260–$270 for Pitch Black booster boxes; both creators who covered the set expect prices to settle around $200 or lower, and the set is launching into a seasonally soft summer demand window.

If you found this useful, forward to a fellow collector or investor. Sharing helps the briefing reach the right audience.

Section 01

Market Commentary

Per-creator notes from market-commentary channels. Each section reflects one channel's published view; consensus across all channels is summarized in the briefing above.

From Alpha Investments

The Pokemon Onion

Jun 17, 2026  ·  51m 21s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] Rudy argues that most Pokemon sets have stopped appreciating and that new-set speculators using credit to pre-order and flip product represent a fragile outer layer of the market. He contends The Pokemon Company is deliberately restricting booster box supply across all recent sets, which is the sole reason prices have not collapsed, and warns that when short-term flippers can no longer profit they will exit, leaving long-term holders behind.

Datapoints

  • Most Pokemon sets have stopped going up in price, with capital instead rotating into selected Pokemon singles, Lorcana, and One Piece sealed product. 04:20
  • New Pokemon booster boxes are trading around $190-$200 at MSRP at local card stores, with short-term flippers targeting resale prices of $250-$300 per box (roughly 30-40% margins) within weeks of release. 25:01
  • Rudy asserts The Pokemon Company has made zero meaningful attempt to increase booster box supply over two years, deliberately keeping print runs tight across Scarlet & Violet era sets while continuing to produce ancillary products such as tins, EX boxes, and Elite Trainer Boxes. 37:25

View Source  →  YouTube

The Loser Keeps Going

Jun 14, 2026  ·  47m 22s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] Rudy covers the Pokemon market across several segments of a wide-ranging video. He warns that hype around the Pokemon 30th anniversary feels overblown and risky, favors older out-of-print Sword and Shield era product over new releases, and notes that severe allocation shortages are forcing stores to sell new product immediately rather than hold it. He also observes that collectibles broadly are in a 2.5-year bull market.

Datapoints

  • Stores across the country are receiving allocations as small as one booster case and one ETB case per location for new Pokemon releases, forcing them to sell at near-market prices immediately with little margin remaining. 35:21
  • Rudy characterizes the current collectibles bull market, including Pokemon, as roughly 2.5 years long, beginning in Q1 2024 after the bear market bottomed in Q4 2023. 26:28
  • New Pokemon ETBs (referencing Ascended Heroes) are retailing at approximately $190 plus tax, around $200, which Rudy cites as a price point that is discouraging even interested buyers from purchasing. 34:41

Recommendations

BUYOlder out-of-print Pokemon sealed product from Sword and Shield sets such as Lost Origin, Silver Tempest, Crown Zenith, and Scarlet Violet base rather than new releases. 12:43
AVOIDAvoid chasing Pokemon 30th anniversary product at launch; Rudy is uneasy about the universal hype and views the buy-the-rumor dynamic as a meaningful risk. 42:11

View Source  →  YouTube

From Nostalgia Nomics

Pokemon Investors GOT CAUGHT UP IN FOMO...

Jun 17, 2026  ·  11m 11s

Investment Thesis

Nostalgia Nomics argues that FOMO-driven buying of hyped sets like Ascended Heroes, Phantasmal Flames, and Destined Rivals has led to price pullbacks, while overlooked sets like Surging Sparks and Paldea Evolved have quietly appreciated. The creator contrasts those pump-and-dump patterns with Prismatic Evolutions ETBs recovering toward $200 and urges investors to buy undervalued products rather than chasing the crowd.

Datapoints

  • Prismatic Evolutions ETBs have recovered to a lowest listing of $190 on TCG Player, with very few remaining under $200. 00:52
  • Surging Sparks booster boxes are now over $300, up more than 20% for buyers who purchased in the mid-$200s, despite widespread belief the set was oversupplied. 01:22
  • Ascended Heroes ETBs have stagnated and begun declining after hype pushed them toward $300. Phantasmal Flames boxes ran to $455 and are now pulling back. Destined Rivals boxes have dropped back under $600 from highs above that level. 02:01
  • The Destined Rivals Mega Gengar PSA 10 fell roughly 20% over the past month, dropping from around $3,500 in May to the low $2,000s, while the Destined Rivals Forest Pikachu dropped approximately 40% from its highs. 03:30
  • The Destined Rivals Charizard PSA 10 dropped about 20%, from nearly $3,000 to roughly $2,300, partly attributed to over 24,000 PSA 10 copies existing out of fewer than 40,000 total graded. 04:28

Recommendations

BUYPrismatic Evolutions ETBs still listed in the $150–$160 range on eBay while they remain available, given the floor on TCG Player is already approaching $200. 05:09
AVOIDAvoid chasing Destined Rivals, Phantasmal Flames, and Ascended Heroes PSA 10 singles at current elevated prices; the creator expects continued price correction as supply and easy gradeability become more widely understood. 08:18

View Source  →  YouTube

The NEW Pokemon Investing Strategy To Make You RICH!

Jun 16, 2026  ·  15m 36s

Investment Thesis

Nostalgia Nomics argues that promo singles have dramatically outperformed sealed product over the past six months, citing 100-300% raw-card gains on items like the Greninja Shrouded Fable promo, Pikachu Scarlet Violet promo, and Rayquaza from Celestial Storm collections. The creator then pivots to current low-cost promos, including Ascended Heroes mega attack rares and Prism Tin Eeveelution cosmos holos, as the next wave of potential multi-bagger plays.

Datapoints

  • The Greninja promo from Shrouded Fable rose from roughly $50 to over $120 in six months, a 140% gain on the raw card. 01:48
  • The Pikachu Scarlet Violet promo went from $10 to $30 in six months, a 200% gain; the Rayquaza from Celestial Storm collections went from $3 to nearly $10 in six months, a 200-300% gain. 04:04
  • A regular holo card (Pikachu from Team Up blisters) moved from roughly $70-80 to nearly $180 in six months, approximately a 120-130% gain, with no grading required. 09:05

Recommendations

BUYMega Gardevoir and Mega Lucario Ascended Heroes promo mega attack rares, currently near all-time lows at under $10 and under $18 respectively, as the creator expects them to reach $30-60 based on the promo appreciation pattern. 11:04
BUYPrism Tin Eeveelution cosmos holo promos (Flareon, Vaporeon, Jolteon, Glaceon, Leafeon, Sylveon) currently priced at $0.70-$1.50, which the creator calls a massive play with potential for exponential percentage gains if they reach $5-10. 12:57
BUYLow-cost singles and promo cards broadly, as the creator explicitly recommends shifting focus from sealed product to affordable singles plays that could return 100x over five to ten years. 14:13

View Source  →  YouTube

This SCARED ME About The Future Of Pokemon Investing...

Jun 15, 2026  ·  20m 33s

Investment Thesis

After attending Kansas City Collect-A-Con, the creator observed a dramatic shift in the Pokemon hobby toward short-term day-trading mentality, with slabs moving briskly but sealed product stagnating. He draws a parallel to the crypto boom-and-bust cycle, warning that if gains slow and the hobby loses its cultural cachet, a large portion of speculative participants may exit, leaving others holding illiquid inventory.

Datapoints

  • At Kansas City Collect-A-Con, vendors reported strong overall sales but struggled to move sealed Pokemon product across all price points, from booster boxes and ETBs to tins, spanning Scarlet and Violet through vintage. 04:57
  • Graded slabs were the dominant transaction at the event; vendors were buying slabs from customers at 80-85% and immediately flipping them to bulk slab buyers (GameStop, Courtyard, Arena Club, Fanatics) at 90%, with sellers unwilling to go below 92-95% even for large bulk deals. 03:00
  • The creator attempted to negotiate $10,000-plus bulk slab purchases at 90% of market value and was turned down, noting that two years ago any vendor would have accepted that offer instantly. 05:22

View Source  →  YouTube

From AnonTCG

The Most Important TCG Update In Awhile. OP-17, The Hobbit, Nikke Vol 2. ME 7.5 and more!

Jun 18, 2026  ·  14m 54s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] AnonTCG reports insider intel that a Mega Evolution 7.5 high-class specialty set is in early print preparation, reshuffling the 2026-2027 Japanese release calendar. He also sold 290 cases of Partner Illustration Collections Series 2 at $249.99, projecting the market will settle in the $400-$450 range near-term before potentially dipping into the $300s.

Datapoints

  • An unannounced Mega Evolution 7.5 high-class specialty set is reportedly in early print preparation, according to sources outside the distribution chain; no official spoilers have been released. 00:40
  • The Mega Evolution 7.5 set appears to be shifting the release calendar: the standard pitch-black set is being accelerated to the September slot, pushing the usual July/August specialty set back, presumably to allow more print time. 02:01
  • AnonTCG sold 290 cases of Partner Illustration Collections Series 2 at $249.99 each; he projects the market price will settle in the $400-$450 range early on, with a possible dip into the $300s later. 04:00

Recommendations

BUYPartner Illustration Collections Series 2 cases at current prices, as the creator views $249.99 as strong value with the market expected to settle in the $400-$450 range. 04:10

View Source  →  YouTube

This week's Pokémon, Magic the Gathering, One Piece and other TCG Distribution Update!

Jun 15, 2026  ·  22m 32s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] AnonTCG's weekly distribution update covers several TCGs, with a brief Pokemon segment noting upcoming wave 2 releases. Key items include Chaos Rising wave 2, the Illustration Collection Series 2, Lucario battle decks, and Mega Forces tins. Notably, Ascended Heroes booster bundles have not yet shipped, and the Mega Forces tins appear to have roughly double the typical supply allocation.

Datapoints

  • Ascended Heroes booster bundles have not yet shipped from distributors as of this update, while Mega EX boxes have shipped from most distributors with one or two exceptions. 20:01
  • Mega Forces tins supply appears to be approximately twice the normal allocation: where a distributor might typically receive 50,000 tins for a standard SKU, this one is tracking closer to 80,000 units. 21:33
  • Perfect Order wave 2 booster boxes are tentatively scheduled for mid-July; the creator believes TPCi is deliberately holding them back to prevent the market from tanking. 20:14

View Source  →  YouTube

The Pokemon Summer Swoon Is Upon Us

Jun 14, 2026  ·  7m 13s

Investment Thesis

AnonTCG breaks down the recurring Pokemon TCG summer slowdown, noting that June through Labor Day consistently sees softer demand and lower sell-through on TCGplayer. He flags that 2026 is different because a standard set, Pitch Black, lands in July rather than a specialty set, which could pressure booster box prices more than prior summers. He also highlights Ascended Heroes booster bundles and the looming 30th Anniversary release as competing spending priorities.

Datapoints

  • Daily TCGplayer booster box sales across SV1 through SV8/9 ran around $10,000 during normal periods in 2024, then dropped to roughly $5,000 once July hit, with many individual boxes selling only one to three units per day. 01:41
  • Chaos Rising booster boxes were still selling 30 to 40 units per day as of the time of recording, with wave two allocations from most distributors expected to ship within the week. 03:42
  • Ascended Heroes booster bundles crossed $100 and were selling strongly, while super premium collections had recovered after an earlier price dump. 04:26

Recommendations

AVOIDAnonTCG cautions that Pitch Black launching into a seasonally soft summer demand cycle could make it underwhelming; he would not chase it at launch. 04:21

View Source  →  YouTube

From Christy Holds

How I Split My Six-Figure Pokemon Portfolio

Jun 19, 2026  ·  10m 52s

Investment Thesis

Christy breaks down her six-figure Pokemon portfolio across five categories: 5% speculative plays (Pokemon Center exclusives, sealed promos), 10% premium products (UPCs and SPCs), 20% specialty-set products (Pokemon Center ETBs and booster bundles), 25% PSA 10 graded chase cards, and 40% booster boxes. She avoids loose packs, raw cards, tins, and collection boxes entirely, favouring products with proven demand and liquidity.

Datapoints

  • The Celebrations UPC launched at roughly £120 MSRP and is now worth approximately £1,000 five years later. 02:01
  • The 151 UPC is three years old and is now worth approximately £700. 02:15
  • An Umbreon VMAX (Evolving Skies) PSA 10 purchased for around £900 is now worth approximately £3,000. 06:34

Recommendations

BUYPokemon Center ETBs from strong specialty sets, as exclusivity combined with set strength has made them increasingly desirable and important for portfolio exposure. 04:13
BUYBooster boxes as the core position of a Pokemon investing portfolio, prioritising them over loose packs, tins, and collection boxes from the same set. 08:22
AVOIDAvoid loose packs, raw cards, tins, and collection boxes; when comparing these to a booster box or Pokemon Center ETB from the same set, the latter almost always offers superior long-term performance. 10:00

View Source  →  YouTube

Should We Be WORRIED About Pokemon’s 30th Anniversary?

Jun 14, 2026  ·  17m 54s

Investment Thesis

Christy Holds breaks down the emerging details around Pokemon's 30th anniversary set, focusing on the rumored $200 MSRP Ultra Premium Collection, potential supply dynamics, pull rate unknowns, and the Japanese Pokemon Center exclusive Futuristic Pikachu box. Drawing comparisons to Ascended Heroes, she rates herself a 6-7 out of 10 bullish, citing pre-existing hype, nostalgia, and strong early card reveals as positive signals.

Datapoints

  • The 30th anniversary Ultra Premium Collection is rumored to carry a $200 MSRP, a significant jump from the typical $120 UPC price point, based on a widely circulated Elite Product List screenshot. 00:42
  • The Ascended Heroes Pokemon Center ETB featuring Zekrom is selling for close to $6,000 in PSA 10. 12:17
  • The Celebrations UPC is now approaching £1,000 and Pokemon Center ETBs from that anniversary set are selling for well over £400, illustrating the long-term appreciation track record of anniversary products. 14:55

Recommendations

BUYConsider the Umbreon and Espeon deck from the 30th anniversary lineup, as its guaranteed promo cards create a distinct supply dynamic around condition and PSA 10 rates rather than pack-pull scarcity. 11:46
BUYPay close attention to the Japanese Pokemon Center exclusive Futuristic Pikachu box, as exclusivity alone has historically driven appreciation in similar regional Pokemon Center products. 14:23

View Source  →  YouTube

From Collect Pokemon

The big summer dip? Will it happen again?

Jun 17, 2026  ·  9m 28s

Investment Thesis

Collect Pokemon argues the 2025 summer slowdown will be milder than 2023's, driven by global card shows boosting trade activity. He expects $100–$500 singles to move up to $800–$900, while sealed product remains sluggish due to low buyer appetite for chance-based purchases. Mid-tier $1,000–$5,000 cards may see some softness, but ultra-high-end and entry-level singles should hold firm.

Datapoints

  • The worst summer slowdown on record was 2023, when Japanese waifu cards spiked ahead of Worlds in Yokohama, then prices plummeted as attendees sold their holdings. 04:08
  • Sealed product is currently difficult to move; demand has shifted toward graded slabs because buyers prefer known value over the chance-based nature of booster boxes. 07:26
  • Champion's Path sealed product has only recently reached the $180–$200 range, illustrating how slowly some sealed investments appreciate. 03:44

Recommendations

SELLBooster boxes now to free up capital for higher-demand products, as sealed product is stuck and unlikely to move significantly in the near term. 08:28

View Source  →  YouTube

What top tiered pokemon investor are doing!

Jun 15, 2026  ·  15m 13s

Investment Thesis

Collect Pokemon argues that most trending Pokemon TCG products and hype cycles are 'noise' that distracts investors from long-term goals. Using personal examples like Hidden Fates vs. Cosmic Eclipse and Champion's Path vs. Rebel Clash, the creator advocates setting 3-to-5-year goals early, ignoring short-term speculation, and staying laser-focused on chosen targets such as 30th anniversary sealed products and Pikachu singles.

Datapoints

  • The creator bought 25th anniversary birthday Pikachu singles at $3-$4 each after release, graded large quantities, and reports many returned as PSA 10s. 12:45
  • Phantasmal Flames ETBs were purchased at $120, dropped to around $80, and have since recovered to $150-$160. 11:49
  • The creator states that splitting funds between Hidden Fates and Cosmic Eclipse was a mistake, arguing that allocating entirely to Cosmic Eclipse would have produced significantly better returns. 10:01

Recommendations

BUY30th anniversary sealed Elite Trainer Boxes, with allocation size depending on market price at release. 13:16
BUY30th anniversary Pikachu singles, targeting roughly 100 copies of each card in the set. 13:36
AVOIDAvoid chasing hype-driven sets like Ascended Heroes, Paldean Fates, and Destined Rivals, as the creator considers these distractions from long-term goals. 08:46

View Source  →  YouTube

From Ketchum All Collectibles

Pokemon Opportunity in Your Own Backyard

Jun 15, 2026  ·  21m 55s

Investment Thesis

Ketchum All Collectibles recaps four local card shows within 90 minutes of his upstate New York home, arguing the local Pokemon show scene is booming alongside the broader market. He shares his active buying rates for collections and sealed product, notes he has purchased more than six collections valued over $100,000 since December 2025, and encourages collectors to explore their own regional show circuits for deals and networking.

Datapoints

  • Since December 2025, the creator has purchased more than six collections valued at $100,000 or more each, with the largest single buy at $140,000; in December 2025 he paid $100,000 (80% of $125,000 market value) for what was then his biggest single collection purchase in Pokemon. 06:22
  • Local card shows in upstate New York are running more than once a month across multiple venues, with table fees as low as $25-$50 and $5 admission; one show's organizer reported their second event was twice the size of their first, reflecting broader market growth. 10:25
  • The creator is currently paying 80% of market value on XY and Sun and Moon sealed product and English near-mint singles, 85% on lower-grade grail cards, and up to 90-95% on high-ticket items such as Poncho Pikachu promos and PSA 10 Illustrator-class cards, and is considering lowering his general buying rate to 75% due to capital and processing constraints. 05:51

Recommendations

SELLIf you hold Poncho Pikachu promos, gold stars, or other grail-tier slabs, the creator is actively paying 90-95% of market value for them this week, making now a favorable time to liquidate into strong demand. 07:43

View Source  →  YouTube

From The Poke Plumber

The Pokémon Company Said Cancel The Crash!

Jun 19, 2026  ·  26m 00s

Investment Thesis

The Poke Plumber covers several market signals heading into summer, highlighting the Delta Rain (Rayquaza) set announcement and its likely effect on Rayquaza cards across eras. He flags Prismatic Evolutions ETBs and Ascended Heroes as priority buys before supply dries up, calls Pitch Black a weak set at current prices, and argues the broader modern Pokemon market is in a summer buying window across Sword and Shield and Scarlet and Violet.

Datapoints

  • The Roaring Skies Rayquaza EX in PSA 10 is currently selling for $31,000 with a pop of only 116, while the Ancient Origins shiny Rayquaza PSA 10 sits at $11,000 with a pop of 818. Roaring Skies booster boxes are at $4,000. 04:00
  • Prismatic Evolutions and Ascended Heroes ETBs were bought out; packs have been restocked but ETBs are now at higher prices. Black Bolt and White Flare are also rising. Destined Rivals is dropping while Surging Sparks is going up. 11:31
  • Pitch Black booster boxes are currently listed at $260-$270 on TCGPlayer; the creator believes the set is weak and expects prices to settle around $200 or lower. 06:47

Recommendations

BUYPrismatic Evolutions and Ascended Heroes ETBs and SPCs now, as the creator believes this is likely the last opportunity before supply is exhausted and prices rise further. 12:29
SELLConsider taking profits on high-value Rayquaza slabs that have appreciated significantly, such as PSA 10 copies now worth $31,000, to redeploy into modern opportunities. 14:01
AVOIDDo not pay current prices of $260-$270 for Pitch Black booster boxes; the creator considers the set weak and expects prices to drop to around $200 or below. 06:51

View Source  →  YouTube

Let’s Have A Serious Talk About Pokemon And What You Need To Prepare For!

Jun 17, 2026  ·  28m 26s

Investment Thesis

The Poke Plumber argues that The Pokemon Company deliberately created artificial scarcity by cutting print runs rather than printing at full capacity, driving modern booster box prices to unprecedented levels. He warns that market manipulation and stagnation signal a coming correction, while noting that Sun and Moon boxes are outselling newer Scarlet and Violet product, and advises collectors to use the current horizontal market to fill collection gaps at a measured pace.

Datapoints

  • Phantasmal Flames booster boxes are currently trading around $450, and Destined Rivals boxes are fetching $500-$600, despite being less than a year old. 04:12
  • In a personal lot sale, Sun and Moon boxes sold fastest and at double or triple the price of Sword and Shield boxes; within Scarlet and Violet, Paldea Evolved and Destined Rivals moved first while other Scarlet and Violet sets sat unsold. 23:42
  • The creator predicts a second wave of Perfect Order boxes could drop to $170-$180 if released in summer 2025 alongside Pitch Black, citing weak pre-order sell-through for Pitch Black as a demand signal. 15:07

Recommendations

BUYDestined Rivals booster boxes if you can source them at overseas prices, as the creator sees current pricing as a stacking opportunity. 04:26
BUYSword and Shield, Sun and Moon, and XY era product now while the market is horizontal and prices are relatively accessible. 16:40
AVOIDAvoid chasing Perfect Order boxes ahead of a potential second-wave reprint that the creator believes could push prices down to $170-$180. 16:25

View Source  →  YouTube

POKÉMON CRASH!! TIME TO SELL EVERYTHING?!? + Collection Tour

Jun 15, 2026  ·  36m 04s

Investment Thesis

The Poke Plumber reports a noticeable summer slowdown at a recent card show, with more sellers than buyers and difficulty moving sealed product like Chaos Rising ETBs. He argues Scarlet and Violet and Mega Evolution sealed need years of patience to appreciate, while flagging Sword and Shield, XY, Sun and Moon, Ascended Heroes, illustration rares, and Black Bolt White Flare as longer-term holds or buys for patient collectors.

Datapoints

  • At a recent card show, roughly 60% of vendors reported slower-than-usual sales, and the creator observed significantly more sellers than buyers, including people trying to liquidate entire sealed collections and Chaos Rising ETBs that could not move. 04:19
  • Silver Tempest booster boxes are at all-time highs, and the Lugia V alt art from that set is listed at a floor of around $1,500 despite having over 20,000 graded copies. 17:57
  • A Sword and Shield full-art card has a lower PSA pop count than its XY-era counterpart, which the creator cites as evidence that Sword and Shield full arts are undervalued; raw copies are available for around $5-10 and PSA 10s for $150-$250. 27:02

Recommendations

BUYXY sealed product including booster boxes, packs, tins, and collection boxes, which the creator believes are fairly priced and undervalued with strong long-term upside. 17:01
BUYBlack Bolt White Flare sealed and singles, which the creator calls undervalued with limited supply and no confirmed reprint. 21:12
HOLDScarlet and Violet and Mega Evolution sealed if you already own it, but be prepared to wait two to three or more years for meaningful appreciation rather than expecting quick flips. 16:42

View Source  →  YouTube

Section 02

Singles & Auction Prices

Latest singles and auction price changes from channels that track specific cards, eBay sales, and grading population shifts. Data-heavy by design; recommendations only where the creator made one.

From Danny Phantump

Prismatic Evolutions is Just a BAD IDEA at This Point!

Jun 19, 2026  ·  27m 41s

Investment Thesis

Danny Phantump runs a detailed pull-rate analysis on Prismatic Evolutions, finding that at the current market price of roughly $17.57 per pack, openers can expect to lose about $13.55 per pack. The break-even pack price is calculated at $4.02, and the full master set now costs nearly $6,000. He concludes that opening at market price is a poor value proposition and recommends focusing on singles instead.

Datapoints

  • At the current market price of approximately $17.57 per pack, the probability of pulling back your money from a Prismatic Evolutions pack is only about 1.4-1.5%, with an expected loss of roughly $13.55 per pack opened. 25:04
  • A 36-pack sample size of Prismatic Evolutions yields an average total value of approximately $144.60, broken down as: ~$18.42 from double rares, ~$2 from Ace Specs, ~$4.80 from full-art ultra rares, ~$73 from special illustration rares, ~$8.56 from hyper rares, ~$13 from Poke Ball reverses, and ~$14.76 from Master Ball reverses. 19:00
  • The Umbreon EX special illustration rare has climbed to $1,565.84, up from below $1,000 not long ago, while the Sylveon EX special illustration rare sits at $514.76 and the Leafeon EX special illustration rare is at $331.25. The break-even pack price for Prismatic Evolutions is calculated at $4.02. 17:50

Recommendations

AVOIDAvoid opening Prismatic Evolutions packs at the current market price of ~$17.57; focus on buying singles instead unless you can find packs at or near MSRP. 27:14

View Source  →  YouTube

When BULK Ultra Rares are No Longer BULK!

Jun 15, 2026  ·  20m 13s

Investment Thesis

Danny Phantump surveys Sword and Shield era V-cards that have quietly climbed out of bulk pricing, arguing that collectors and store owners should audit their bulk boxes for these singles. Cards like Lugia V, Charizard V from Crown Zenith, Snorlax V, and Mew V from Fusion Strike have posted gains of 85% to 365% over the past year, driven by shrinking secondary-market supply and steady demand for popular Pokemon.

Datapoints

  • Mew V (Fusion Strike) rose from $1.34 a year ago to $9.22 currently, up roughly 365% over the past year, as supply on the secondary market has thinned and demand from popular-Pokemon collectors remains steady. 07:52
  • Lugia V regular art is currently selling for $14.52, up from $3.29 in June 2025; the alternate-art Lugia V has crossed $500, up from well below $200. 12:10
  • Charizard V from Crown Zenith has climbed from $2.64 in June 2025 to $10.99 currently, up about 304%, with supply drying up as booster packs for the set become increasingly expensive and less frequently opened. 13:57

Recommendations

SELLAudit your bulk boxes for Sword and Shield era V-cards such as Lugia V, Charizard V, Snorlax V, Mew V, Umbreon V, and Gengar V, then trade or sell extras to fund illustration rares or other collection targets. 19:01

View Source  →  YouTube

WATCH THIS Before Ever Opening Scarlet and Violet 151 AGAIN!

Jun 14, 2026  ·  26m 57s

Investment Thesis

Danny Phantump breaks down the expected value of opening Scarlet and Violet 151 booster packs at current secondary-market prices. With packs sitting around $25.41, the average pack value is only $10.84, meaning buyers lose roughly $14.57 per pack opened. He walks through pull rates and average card values across every rarity tier to help collectors decide whether to rip or shift to singles.

Datapoints

  • Scarlet and Violet 151 booster packs peaked at $30.57 on the secondary market before retracing to approximately $25.41 at time of recording, driven by high demand and limited supply as the set is out of print. 06:42
  • At $25.41 per pack, opening a 36-pack booster-box sample size of Scarlet and Violet 151 yields an average total pull value of $390.15 against a cost of $914.76, producing an expected loss of $524.61 (roughly $14.57 per pack). The average pack value break-even price is $10.84. 22:09
  • Illustration rares in Scarlet and Violet 151 have surged significantly: Charmander sits at $131.26, Squirtle at $118.87, Pikachu at $101.52, and Charmeleon at $80.99, with the Charizard EX special illustration rare reaching $497.52. 15:58

Recommendations

AVOIDAvoid opening Scarlet and Violet 151 packs purchased above MSRP on the secondary market; shift budget toward singles instead until pack prices cool. 26:19

View Source  →  YouTube

From It Was Never A Phase Cards

New Ascended Heroes Drop Soon! + Pokemon Market Update

Jun 19, 2026  ·  22m 10s

Investment Thesis

TJ covers the upcoming Ascended Heroes tin restock (August 28, $22 MSRP) and a broad Pokemon market update spanning new releases, vintage singles, and sealed product. Highlights include the Mega Dragonite Special Illustration Rare hitting a new all-time high, Ascended Heroes ETBs dipping then bouncing, and a wave of older singles up 100-260% driven by 30th anniversary Pikachu demand and general market heat.

Datapoints

  • Ascended Heroes Mega Dragonite Special Illustration Rare (card 290) hit a new all-time high; it launched around $500 and now has a current market price of $880, with lowest listings available in the $815-$840 range. 01:48
  • Ascended Heroes Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Boxes peaked near $525 then dipped roughly 10% to a current market price of $457, but lowest listings are already rebounding toward $500; the all-time low after release was around $240. 02:37
  • Cosmic Eclipse Pikachu reverse holo (card 66) is up 260% over the period tracked, rising from a $2 card to approximately $8.50 current market price, with lowest listings at $9 and above, driven by broad 30th anniversary Pikachu buying. 10:48

Recommendations

BUYcheck local stores today for First Partner Illustration Collection Series 2, which launched at an all-time secondary-market low of around $55 with lowest listings already moving toward $60. 05:03
AVOIDbe cautious chasing buyout-driven spikes like the Pikachu and Zekrom promo, which shot from $40 to $142 on a June 1 buyout and has since declined to around $100, with lowest listings in the $80s. 04:25

View Source  →  YouTube

New Pokemon Card Set Delta Reign Revealed! + Market Update

Jun 18, 2026  ·  22m 14s

Investment Thesis

The English Rayquaza set has been officially named Delta Reign with a November 6th release date, while the Japanese counterpart Storm Emerald and TCG Pocket set Ruler of the Skies release simultaneously on July 31st. The creator surveys surging Rayquaza singles and Evolving Skies sealed product, noting broad price appreciation across vintage and modern cards ahead of the new set's launch.

Datapoints

  • Gold Star Rayquaza PSA 9 copies have risen from the $7,000–$8,000 range to as high as $33,000, with PSA 10s now exceeding $50,000 and BGS 9.5s reaching approximately $36,000. 02:57
  • The Rayquaza VMAX alternate art from Evolving Skies crossed the $1,000 raw mark and is now listed at $1,400–$1,500 on TCGPlayer, while Evolving Skies booster boxes are up 42% year-over-year, rising from $1,900 to approximately $2,700. 03:46
  • The Rayquaza VMAX from Silver Tempest Trainer Gallery (TG20) is up 200% over the past year, moving from $70 to over $200 raw, and a separate Silver Tempest Rayquaza card is up 310% year-over-year from $8 to approximately $37. 07:50

Recommendations

BUYEvolving Skies sleeved packs as a more affordable entry point into the set if you believe in continued Rayquaza-driven appreciation. 15:34
AVOIDAvoid buying loose Evolving Skies packs long-term, as the creator prefers sleeved packs over loose packs for sets that are aging and appreciating. 15:38

View Source  →  YouTube

EXPENSIVE Pokemon Cards With AFFORDABLE Alternatives

Jun 16, 2026  ·  19m 27s

Investment Thesis

It Was Never A Phase Cards surveys the most expensive modern Pokemon singles, including the Rayquaza VMAX alt art from Evolving Skies (raw over $1,000; PSA 10 averaging $2,800), Mega Gengar from Ascended Heroes (raw $1,300-$1,400; PSA 10 peaked at $4,000), the Pikachu SIR from Ascended Heroes ($1,300 raw), Umbreon from Prismatic Evolutions ($1,600 raw; PSA 10 averaging $6,700), the Mew SIR from Paldean Fates (over $1,000), and the Giratina alt art from Lost Origin ($844). For each, the creator highlights more affordable alternative cards in the $23-$132 range.

Datapoints

  • The Rayquaza VMAX alt art from Evolving Skies recently broke the $1,000 raw mark, with the lowest listings on TCGPlayer at $1,500 and up. PSA 10 copies peaked on May 13th at around $3,000 and have since averaged $2,800 across the last five sales; BGS 10s average $3,100. 00:26
  • The Umbreon SAR number 161 from Prismatic Evolutions is around $1,600 raw. Its PSA 10 price has climbed from $4,300 three months ago to an average of $6,700 across the last five sales, with one recent sale at $7,600. BGS 10s average $13,000 with the most recent sale near $17,000. 10:30
  • The Pikachu SIR number 276 from Ascended Heroes is up 146% over the past three months and is now a $1,300 raw card. Its PSA 10 peaked in May at $4,700 and has since dropped to around $3,000. The Gray Felt Hat Pikachu promo, essentially free at release, is now also over $1,000 raw, up from $320 a year ago. 07:38

View Source  →  YouTube

These Pokemon Cards Doubled In Price | You Missed Out?

Jun 15, 2026  ·  19m 46s

Investment Thesis

TJ covers a wide sweep of the Pokemon market: Black Bolt and White Flare illustration rares are hitting all-time highs, Shinji Kanda cards across multiple sets are surging, vintage Wizards-era promos are up triple digits year-over-year, and Chaos Rising chase cards continue to slide to new all-time lows despite scarce pull rates. The overall market tone is bullish on older sealed and singles, cautious on recent buyout-driven spikes.

Datapoints

  • Seismitoad illustration rare (Black Bolt, #105) is up 62% over the past 3 months to a new all-time high of $235 raw; only 13 copies are listed on TCGPlayer while roughly 45 sold in the past month. The PSA 10 has risen 128% over the same period, from around $800 to a ~$2,000 average on the last five sales. 00:25
  • Togepi Black Star Promo (#30) is up 271% year-over-year, rising from roughly $6 to $23-$24, with lowest listings sitting at $23-$24. Multiple other Wizards-era Pokemon the First Movie stamped promos (Pikachu #4, Mewtwo #3, Electabuzz #2) are also up 133-200% on the year. 09:23
  • Chaos Rising Mega Greninja SIR (#116) launched at ~$600 and has fallen to a new all-time low of ~$338, with 149 copies available on TCGPlayer. The gold Mega Greninja hyper rare is also at a new all-time low, down ~32% from its ~$400 launch price to ~$260-$270, despite requiring roughly 1-in-1,000 packs to pull. 17:35

Recommendations

AVOIDBe cautious buying Black Bolt and White Flare illustration rares like Gurdurr and Conkeldurr that show sharp recent spikes driven by buyouts, as the price action may not reflect organic demand. 10:28
AVOIDBe cautious with Temporal Forces SIR buyout plays such as Iron Boulder, as the creator flags speculative buying and notes it may be less desirable than comparable cards in the set. 13:27

View Source  →  YouTube

Top Performing Cards Of 2026 So Far! Pokemon Market Update

Jun 14, 2026  ·  23m 45s

Investment Thesis

It Was Never A Phase Cards reviews the top-performing Pokemon TCG singles and sealed products of the first half of 2026. Standout singles include the Bubble Mew crossing $1,000 raw, the Pikachu from Ascended Heroes up 152%, and multiple 151 illustration rares up 120-180%. On the sealed side, Paldean Fates, Crown Zenith, and 151 products lead gains of 66-108%, while the creator flags the upcoming 30th anniversary set as the next major catalyst.

Datapoints

  • The Bubble Mew (Paldean Fates) has crossed $1,000 raw, with a current TCGPlayer market price of $1,012; the Pikachu with gray felt hat promo has simultaneously crossed $1,000, sitting at a market price of $1,011. 00:21
  • The Pikachu from Ascended Heroes is up approximately 152% from its earliest TCGPlayer listing of $526, now trading around $1,300; the Treekachu from the same set is also around $1,300, while the Gengar sits at $1,300-$1,400 but is considered a lower percentage performer because it launched near $1,000. 01:43
  • Multiple 151 illustration rares have posted large 6-month gains: Psyduck (card 175) up ~180% from $30 to $82 (new all-time high); Wartortle up 150% from $30 to $75; Squirtle up 172% from $44, peaking at $140 and currently around $121-$122 with 200 copies sold in the past month against 146 listed; Charmeleon up 120% from $37 to ~$81. 03:03
  • On the sealed side, the Paldean Fates Great Tusk box is up 108% over 6 months ($120 to $250 market price, $280 listed median); the 151 Zapdos box is up ~105% ($60 to $122, listed median $130, one-year low of $37); Prismatic Evolutions booster bundles are up 82% ($56 to over $100); the Crown Zenith standard Elite Trainer Box hit a new all-time high, up ~67% from $207 to $344 market price ($415 listed median); and Destined Rivals booster boxes are up ~50% from ~$400 to ~$600. 13:17

Recommendations

BUYBlack Bolt and White Flare sealed product and singles, as the creator believes the set is undervalued relative to its long-term potential and reprint risk. 12:57
HOLDPrismatic Evolutions sealed product long term, as the creator expects it to perform well on the sealed side as it approaches rotation despite heavy print runs. 16:42

View Source  →  YouTube

From Top 10 Pokemon

Prices DROPPING FAST From Chaos Rising & Perfect Order!

Jun 19, 2026  ·  11m 26s

Investment Thesis

Top 10 Pokemon surveys sharp price declines across illustration rares and special illustration rares from Chaos Rising and Perfect Order. IRs like Xerneas, Ampharos, and Frogadier are down 45-66% in the past month, with some cards like Tauros off over 90% overall. SIRs including Mega Greninja EX and Mega Zygarde EX have dropped 40-57%, while the raw Meowth SIR bucks the trend, up 12% even as its PSA 10 copy collapsed from $1,400 to under $600.

Datapoints

  • Multiple illustration rares from Chaos Rising are down 45-90% in the past month: Xerneas IR down ~55% to $13.75, Chespin IR down ~45% to $7.39, Ampharos IR down ~55% to $13.89, Frogadier IR down ~55-56% to $13.24, Froakie IR down ~60% to $14.92, Crobat IR down ~67% to $4.78, and Tauros IR down ~65% in the past month and over 90% overall to $5.80. 01:39
  • The raw Meowth SIR from Perfect Order is up 12.42% over the past 3 months at ~$178, while its PSA 10 copy has fallen from ~$1,400 in early May to below $600. 08:15
  • Several Perfect Order and Chaos Rising SIRs have seen significant 3-month declines: Mega Starmie EX down 23.4% to ~$61.71, Mega Clefable EX down 42.6% to ~$71.39, Rosa's Encouragement down ~60% to ~$67.54, Mega Zygarde EX down ~57% to ~$69, Cinccino EX down ~25% to ~$85, Mega Greninja EX down ~42% to ~$340, and AZ's Tranquility down ~68% to ~$40. 05:50

Recommendations

BUYChaos Rising illustration rares like Xerneas, Ampharos, Frogadier, and Froakie, which are now trading below the ~$7 cost of a Chaos Rising booster pack. 00:27
AVOIDAvoid buying the Mega Starmie EX and Mega Clefable EX SIRs from Perfect Order, as the creator believes both cards have room to fall further. 06:17
AVOIDHold off on the Cinccino EX SIR at ~$84-$85, as the creator considers that price too steep and expects further downside. 09:31

View Source  →  YouTube

Underrated Plays To Make In 2026! No Brainer Investments!

Jun 16, 2026  ·  9m 21s

Investment Thesis

Top 10 Pokemon highlights five underrated sealed product investments for 2026: the Mega Evolution Enhanced Booster Box (up 12% in three months), the Ascended Heroes ETB (down to $175 from $200), the Prismatic Evolutions Super Premium Collection Box (down 20% to $304), and two Sword and Shield boxes, Brilliant Stars ($621, up 5.8%) and Lost Origin ($773, up 6%), plus Chilling Reign ($502, nearly flat) as the most underrated of the group.

Datapoints

  • The Mega Evolution Enhanced Booster Box is currently priced at approximately $124, up about 12% in the past three months. A stamped Bulbasaur illustration rare promo from the box is valued at over $700 in PSA 10. 01:33
  • The Ascended Heroes ETB is sitting at a market price of approximately $175, down from around $200 just a couple of weeks prior. 04:06
  • The Prismatic Evolutions Super Premium Collection Box is down about 20% in the past three months, sitting at a market price of approximately $304. The Eevee promo included in the box is currently valued at over $400 in PSA 10. 05:34
  • The Chilling Reign booster box is priced at approximately $502 with virtually no movement in the past three months and only about 21% appreciation over the past year despite the broader bull market. 08:01

Recommendations

BUYMega Evolution Enhanced Booster Box at current prices around $124, as the creator is actively accumulating them citing a well-rounded set and a $700+ PSA 10 Bulbasaur promo as a key value driver. 03:27
BUYPrismatic Evolutions Super Premium Collection Box at approximately $304, which the creator calls an absolute no-brainer and has purchased multiple cases of, citing the $400+ Eevee promo and 15 included booster packs. 05:43
BUYChilling Reign booster box at approximately $502, which the creator identifies as the most underrated Sword and Shield box given its stagnant price and solid card fundamentals including the Blaziken VMAX alt art. 08:01

View Source  →  YouTube

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Disclaimers

This week: 26 videos across 10 channels. Browse the public archive at tcgcardinvestor.com.

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Creation of this newsletter is assisted by AI and may contain mistakes. Always verify each claim against the source video before acting on any recommendation.

This report is editorial commentary based on publicly-available content from independent creators. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or collectible, or a recommendation of any particular allocation. Trading-card markets are speculative, illiquid, and subject to material price swings driven by reprint cycles, grading-population changes, and shifts in collector sentiment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ratings (BUY / HOLD / SELL / AVOID) reflect the cited creator's view at the timestamp linked, not the publisher's view. Citation timestamps deep-link to the moment in the source video where the claim is made.

Compiled 2026-06-20 13:10  ·  TCG Card Investor  ·  Editorial digest, not investment advice