TCG Card Investor · Weekly Briefing
TCG Card Investor
Weekly market intelligence on the Pokemon TCG
Vol. 2026 · Issue No. 08 · June 6 – 13, 2026
Hey friend, welcome to the hobby.
The Big Story
An estimated 1 to 1.5 million Phantasmal Flames booster boxes left the factory in March and have not appeared in distribution, with Destined Rivals ETBs similarly held back, pointing to a coordinated release window timed to the 30th anniversary. Pokemon Company is also reportedly delaying Perfect Order booster box distribution until mid-July to protect secondary market prices, while Chaos Rising wave two boxes are already holding at $235 to $300. Digital rip-and-ship platforms are paying out as little as 50 to 60 cents on the dollar and offering only 75 cents of market value when a winning card is out of stock, all while PSA sits on a nine-month grading backlog that legitimate operators cannot overcome.
Key Market Trends
1.30th Anniversary is triggering a coordinated sell-now, buy-later rotation. Multiple creators are actively liquidating legacy sealed holdings including 151 ETBs, Evolving Skies boxes, Cosmic Eclipse boxes, and Pikachu PSA 10 slabs to build cash for 30th anniversary product, which is expected to launch at 2x to 5x MSRP. AnonTCG is targeting roughly $2 million in liquidity; Collect Pokemon plans to liquidate $50,000 to $100,000 in existing holdings. The consensus is that the buying window will be at or shortly after launch when early scalper prices normalize.AnonTCG 01:44 · Collect Pokemon 04:08 · Collect Pokemon 10:18
2.Pokemon is structurally curtailing booster box supply in favor of smaller SKUs. Both Danny Phantump and The Poke Plumber report that Pokemon has communicated to distributors a shift away from booster boxes toward sleeve boosters, check-lane blisters, and booster bundles, with booster box print runs limited to one or two waves before production pivots to ancillary product for two to three years. Perfect Order boxes are trading at $240 to $260 secondary, roughly $80 to $100 above MSRP, and Chaos Rising boxes sold out in approximately 10 minutes at $164. AnonTCG corroborates that Perfect Order box distribution is being deliberately held until mid-July to protect secondary prices.Danny Phantump 05:04 · The Poke Plumber 14:43 · AnonTCG 02:16
3.Prismatic Evolutions ETBs are broadly flagged as undervalued versus comparable special sets. Nostalgia Nomics shows Prismatic Evolutions ETBs at roughly $170 while comparable special sets (Crown Zenith, Paldean Fates, 151) now trade at $340 to $560 per ETB, with Prismatic booster packs at $14.39 versus $25 to $30 for those peers. Christy Holds reports her Prismatic regular ETBs have already 3x'd from roughly 53 GBP to 160 GBP, while Pokemon Center ETBs went from 150 GBP to 400 GBP. The Poke Plumber and Nostalgia Nomics both cite no further print runs as a structural floor.Nostalgia Nomics 06:02 · Christy Holds 09:27 · The Poke Plumber 10:18 · Collect Pokemon 09:14
4.Pitch Black pre-order prices are severely inflated ahead of a July 17 release correction. Pitch Black booster boxes are pre-ordering at roughly $260, about $100 above MSRP, while Pokemon Center ETBs are listed on TCGPlayer at $520 to $600 despite eBay secondary prices sitting at $210 to $220. Both It Was Never A Phase Cards and Danny Phantump note that sellers listing pre-orders have not secured stock, and prices are expected to drop materially on release day. ETB MSRP is $49.99 and booster box MSRP is $161.It Was Never A Phase Cards 05:03 · It Was Never A Phase Cards 02:38 · Danny Phantump 10:18
5.30th anniversary announcement is already moving specific singles sharply higher. The Pikachu and Zekrom GX from Team Up nearly quadrupled from $266 to $278 in late May to over $1,000 after a 30th anniversary reprint announcement, per Top 10 Pokemon. It Was Never A Phase Cards separately documents Rayquaza V alternate art from Evolving Skies up 53% in three months and 108% on the year to $445, with only 15 VMAX copies listed, as anticipation for a Rayquaza set builds. Collect Pokemon reports from Tokyo that Pokemon Centers have no packs on shelves and every Japanese booster box is sitting at roughly double or triple MSRP.Top 10 Pokemon 07:00 · It Was Never A Phase Cards 04:07 · Collect Pokemon 04:57
6.Sword and Shield era sealed is breaking out while newer sets stay flat. Alpha Investments reports Silver Tempest booster boxes broke past their prior $4,500 all-time high and are heading above $600 per box, with a patron sale of SV1 two-box bundles clearing a full pallet of roughly 6,700 boxes in 30 minutes. AnonTCG holds 100 Silver Tempest boxes acquired at $70 to $85 each, now approaching profitable exit territory. Ketchum All Collectibles notes the Umbreon VMAX has risen roughly 4x its prior all-time high to $4,000 to $4,500, while Nostalgia Nomics flags that most Sword and Shield boxes have only barely recovered to prior October highs with little net movement over eight months.Alpha Investments 7:02 · AnonTCG 08:58 · Ketchum All Collectibles 25:44 · Nostalgia Nomics 11:19
Consensus Calls
BUYPrismatic Evolutions ETBs as a long-term hold; multiple creators cite the set's top-hit value (Umbreon EX SIR raw at $1,500 to $1,600 with a sub-30% PSA 10 gem rate), ETB price well below comparable special sets at $340 to $560, and no further print runs expected.
BUYSurging Sparks booster boxes as a long-term hold; It Was Never A Phase Cards and The Poke Plumber both call it a major sleeper, with boxes up roughly 34% year-over-year to $288 even as booster bundles pulled back 18%, suggesting the box format is the right vehicle.
BUYBlack Bolt and White Flare ETBs (currently $140 to $150) as a near-term opportunity; Nostalgia Nomics cites top PSA 10 hits at $1,300 to $1,600 and superior percentage upside versus Sword and Shield sets, while The Poke Plumber and It Was Never A Phase Cards both flag low illustration rare pop reports and specialty-set scarcity as price drivers.
BUYJapanese sealed products and Pokemon Center exclusive boxes for upcoming sets including the Rayquaza set and 30th anniversary releases as early as possible; Collect Pokemon reports from Tokyo that all booster packs have disappeared from Pokemon Center shelves and every Japanese booster box is already at roughly double or triple MSRP regardless of set.
AVOIDAvoid buying Pitch Black booster boxes or Pokemon Center ETBs from TCGPlayer pre-orders at current prices of $260 to $600; both It Was Never A Phase Cards and Danny Phantump warn that sellers have not secured stock and prices will drop significantly at the July 17 release.
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Quote of the Week
“It took me 10 years to build meaningful returns, with the first 6 to 7 years showing little visible progress before gains became apparent in years 7 to 8.”
— Collect Pokemon · 08:40
Section 02
Singles & Auction Prices
Latest singles and auction price changes from channels that track specific cards, eBay sales, and grading population shifts. Data-heavy by design; recommendations only where the creator made one.
From Danny Phantump
Jun 12, 2026 · 22m 11s
Investment Thesis
Danny Phantump breaks down allocation numbers for Pitch Black, the next main-series Pokemon TCG set releasing July 17. His LGS is receiving the same booster box count as Chaos Rising, 10% more Elite Trainer Boxes, the same booster bundle quantity, 55% more three-pack blisters, and 5% more total packs overall. Pre-order prices are running roughly double MSRP across most SKUs, and no second-wave reprints of Chaos Rising or Perfect Order booster boxes have arrived yet.
Datapoints
- Pitch Black booster boxes are pre-ordering at roughly $100 above MSRP ($162); no second-wave reprints of Chaos Rising or Perfect Order booster boxes have been received by distributors, leaving the secondary market very dry and pushing booster box prices higher. 10:18
- One LGS's Pitch Black allocations show: same booster box count as Chaos Rising (~1,000 units across two waves), 10% more Elite Trainer Boxes (roughly 40% more than Perfect Order), same booster bundle quantity as Chaos Rising, 55% more three-pack blisters than Chaos Rising, and 5% more total packs overall versus Chaos Rising. 11:06
- Pitch Black Elite Trainer Boxes have an MSRP of $49.99 but are pre-ordering at around $123; booster bundles (MSRP ~$27-$28) are pre-ordering at ~$55.84; three-pack blisters (MSRP ~$15) and sleeve boosters (MSRP ~$4.50-$5) are also well above MSRP on pre-order listings. 13:38
View Source → YouTube
Jun 10, 2026 · 22m 13s
Investment Thesis
Danny Phantump walks through a roster of formerly bulk Pokemon cards that have surged in price, driven by competitive playability, fairy-typing scarcity, artist popularity, and limited secondary-market supply. Cards from Lost Thunder, Cosmic Eclipse, Stellar Crown, Temporal Forces, and other sets are highlighted, with percentage gains ranging from 140% to over 4,800%, and the creator urges collectors to audit their bulk boxes and sell or trade excess copies now.
Datapoints
- Dunsparce from Journey Together rose over 1,600% from a 9-cent bulk card to roughly $3, driven by competitive playability in Alakazam and other standard-format decks requiring a two-two line for consistency. 09:00
- Slowpoke from Stellar Crown jumped over 4,800% from an 8-cent card to $3.98, fueled by the rise of Slowking in competitive play ahead of the North American International Championships. 13:00
- Misty Energy from Temporal Forces rose 1,500% from 13 cents to a peak of $3.63 after seeing competitive use in Japan, and has since retraced to approximately $2.26. 20:21
Recommendations
SELLExcess copies of Dunsparce from Journey Together sitting in bulk boxes, as competitive demand has pushed the card up over 1,600% and prices may not hold once supply catches up. 09:07
SELLSlowpoke from Stellar Crown out of bulk boxes at current prices near $3.98, trading them to players who need them for competitive Slowking decks before the NAIC. 13:12
SELLExtra copies of Misty Energy from Temporal Forces on TCGPlayer or into a local game store, as the card is up 1,500% and any remaining bulk copies represent meaningful cash toward collection goals. 20:54
View Source → YouTube
Jun 08, 2026 · 16m 31s
Investment Thesis
Danny Phantump argues that booster boxes have become impractical for collectors and openers alike. Pokemon has not meaningfully restocked booster boxes in roughly a year, allocations are tightly capped, and secondary-market prices on sets like Perfect Order and Chaos Rising are running $80-100 above MSRP. He suggests collectors pivot to 36 loose packs or smaller SKUs as a more cost-effective alternative.
Datapoints
- Pokemon has not issued a meaningful restock or reprint of booster boxes in approximately one year, with the last notable reprint being Surging Sparks roughly 12 months ago. 04:58
- Perfect Order booster boxes are trading on the secondary market at $240-$260, roughly $80-$100 above MSRP, and Chaos Rising booster boxes sold out in approximately 10 minutes at $164 per box. 10:14
- Pokemon has communicated to distributors that it is shifting focus away from booster boxes toward higher quantities of smaller SKUs such as sleeve boosters, check-lane blisters, and booster bundles; vending machines are also reportedly moving away from stocking booster boxes and ETBs. 05:04
Recommendations
AVOIDAvoid buying booster boxes to open; purchasing 36 loose packs of the same set is significantly cheaper than a booster box at current secondary-market premiums. 09:19
View Source → YouTube
Jun 07, 2026 · 22m 18s
Investment Thesis
Danny Phantump breaks down the Charizard Ultra Premium Collection's price trajectory, showing the sealed box has risen roughly 98% over the past year to around $582, while its internal contents (packs plus promos) now total approximately $533. He details individual promo card performance, Sword and Shield loose pack price appreciation, and PSA grading gem rates for the three Charizard promos, concluding that opening the UPC at current prices is a losing proposition.
Datapoints
- The Charizard UPC has seen approximately 98% sales growth over the past year on TCG Player, rising from around $291.89 in June 2025 to approximately $581.98 currently; a September 2025 buyout event saw roughly 70 units sell in a single week versus a typical weekly average of about 20 units. 05:31
- Evolving Skies loose booster packs included in the Charizard UPC are now selling for approximately $44.41 each; with three packs per box that alone accounts for roughly $132 in value. Total pack contents across all Sword and Shield packs in the UPC are now valued at approximately $311.29, up from about $212 six months ago, representing roughly 33% growth in pack value alone over that period. 18:04
- The total contents of the Charizard UPC (packs plus promos plus ancillary items) are now valued at approximately $533.13, up from about $344.81 six months ago. The Charizard V Star promo has a PSA 10 gem rate of only about 16%, with 9,000 PSA 10 copies out of 56,000 graded, and a PSA 10 price of approximately $1,485. 20:24
Recommendations
AVOIDthe creator explicitly states that opening the Charizard UPC at current prices will result in a loss regardless, and that grading submissions are inadvisable given PSA's backlog and poor gem rates. 21:45
View Source → YouTube
From It Was Never A Phase Cards
Jun 12, 2026 · 21m 11s
Investment Thesis
TJ surveys singles and sealed products that have pulled back in price amid an otherwise hot market, covering promos, Chaos Rising singles, Ascended Heroes chase cards, and sealed product from Paldean Fates, 151, Destined Rivals, Evolving Skies, and Surging Sparks. He frames most drops as healthy consolidation after strong runs, flags a few cards near all-time lows as worth monitoring, and notes the summer slump may be mild given overall market strength.
Datapoints
- The Froakie illustration rare (Chaos Rising IR #88) hit a new all-time low of around $15 before bouncing to ~$16, down roughly 70% from its May 15th peak of $54; supply on TCG Player reached over 900 copies listed before pulling back slightly above 800. 01:22
- Paldean Fates booster boxes dropped ~12-13% from a May 15th price of nearly $570 to under $500, while 151 ETBs fell ~8-9% from $670-$680 to a current market price of $600; both are still up over 140-170% year-over-year. 13:00
- Surging Sparks booster bundles fell 18% over the past month from ~$77-$78 to ~$57, while Surging Sparks booster boxes are up ~10% over the same period and sit at $288, compared to $215 a year ago. 16:42
Recommendations
BUYSurging Sparks booster boxes as a long-term hold, given the set was heavily printed but boxes are trending up and TJ sees significant opportunity across the product. 17:34
HOLDAscended Heroes Pokemon Center booster boxes; a restock is possible but appears less likely, and TJ expects the box to continue performing well long term. 05:19
View Source → YouTube
Jun 11, 2026 · 20m 44s
Investment Thesis
TJ recaps the chaotic Pokemon Center drop for Pitch Black, which saw widespread errors, site crashes, and mixed results for buyers. He warns the experience signals rough waters ahead for the 30th anniversary and Rayquaza set drops. A market update covers surging prices on Celebrations products and a post-announcement spike and pullback on the Pikachu and Zekrom card from Team Up.
Datapoints
- Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Boxes for Pitch Black are listed on TCG Player at a market price of $600 and lowest listed around $520 during the pre-order period, inflated by brick-and-mortar sellers; eBay secondary market prices are closer to $210-$220. 05:03
- The Celebrations Metal Charizard is up 151% year-over-year, rising from roughly $120 to over $300, with only 17 copies listed on TCG Player and 11 sold over the past month. 12:34
- The Celebrations Ultra Premium Collection box has climbed from around $500 a year ago to a current market price of $1,300, with lowest listings around $1,340-$1,350 and some listed as high as $1,800-$2,000; 20 units sold in the past month with 32 available. 14:06
Recommendations
AVOIDAvoid purchasing Pitch Black Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Boxes on TCG Player at current pre-order prices of $520-$600, as prices typically drop on release day (July 17) when more sellers can list. 05:07
View Source → YouTube
Jun 09, 2026 · 21m 15s
Investment Thesis
TJ covers a broad Pokemon market update spanning singles, graded cards, and sealed products. Highlights include the Mega Venusaur SIR from Mega Evolution base set up 54% in three months, the Sylveon SIR from Prismatic Evolutions breaking $500 after a 66% run, Rayquaza cards from Evolving Skies continuing to climb ahead of an anticipated Rayquaza set announcement, tag team cards from Cosmic Eclipse and Unified Minds posting strong year-over-year gains, and sealed products like Shrouded Fable ETBs and Vivid Voltage booster boxes hitting new price highs.
Datapoints
- The Mega Venusaur SIR (number 177) from Mega Evolution base set is up approximately 54% over the past 3 months, with a current market price around $183, a most recent sale at $217, and an all-time low of roughly $117 back in March. Its PSA 10 averages around $310 across the last five sales. 00:26
- The Sylveon SIR (number 156) from Prismatic Evolutions is up approximately 66% over the past few months, breaking $500 after sitting sub-$300 three months ago. Most recent raw sale is $540 with only 19 copies listed on TCGPlayer. Its PSA 10 has climbed roughly 63%, averaging near $1,700 versus roughly $1,000 previously. 01:55
- The Rayquaza V alternate art (number 194) from Evolving Skies is up 53% over 3 months and 108% on the year, moving from roughly $200 a year ago to a current market price of $445, with only 15 copies of the VMAX listed on TCGPlayer and just 9 copies sold over the past month. The VMAX raw current market price is approximately $1,000, up 46% over the past 3 months. 04:07
Recommendations
BUYThe Heavy Hitters Premium Collection box (featuring Black Bolt and White Flare packs) at current prices around $160, as the creator expects it to look cheap in hindsight given both sets are still underappreciated and the product has only trended upward since its December release at $78. 15:09
View Source → YouTube
Jun 08, 2026 · 20m 34s
Investment Thesis
It Was Never A Phase Cards surveys a broad range of rising Pokemon singles, graded cards, and sealed products. Highlights include the Bubble Mew SIR from Paldean Fates hitting a $928 raw all-time high (up 217% year-over-year), the Lugia V alternate art from Silver Tempest climbing steadily to over $500, and several Sun and Moon era Pikachu promos and vintage cards posting triple-digit annual gains. Sealed products from Paldea Evolved and Mega Evolution PCETBs are also trending upward.
Datapoints
- Bubble Mew SIR (number 232) from Paldean Fates hit a new all-time high raw price of $928, up 38% over the past 3 months and 217% over the past year (from $292 a year ago). PSA 10s average $3,600 across the last five sales; BGS 10s average $4,800; CGC 10s average $1,500; TAG 10s average $3,400. 00:26
- Alternate art Lugia V from Silver Tempest has climbed steadily from $370 to over $500 in 3 months, setting a new all-time high (previous high was $466). PSA 10s average $1,500; BGS 10s average $3,100; CGC 10s average $788; TAG 10s average around $1,400-$1,500 with recent sales at $1,600 and $1,750. 05:33
- Paldea Evolved standard Elite Trainer Box broke $200 for the first time, currently priced around $210, up 124% year-over-year from roughly $93 a year ago. The Paldea Evolved Pokemon Center ETB is priced at $580, more expensive than the booster box at $504, an unusual market dynamic. 15:01
Recommendations
BUYThe Gardevoir version Mega Evolution PCETB is over $100 cheaper than the Lucario version at $224 (up only 28-29% vs. 82%) and includes what the creator considers the better Alakazam promo, making it the relatively undervalued pick in the Mega Evolution PCETB lineup. 14:18
View Source → YouTube
Jun 07, 2026 · 20m 06s
Investment Thesis
The creator previews the expected Pokemon Center pre-order queue for Pitch Black (Abyss Eye English release), warns against buying inflated TCG Player pre-orders near $600, and reviews Japanese singles and sealed pricing. He also covers Kanto starter promo sales data and graded comps, and notes the First Partner Illustration Collection Series 3 is confirmed for August 7th.
Datapoints
- Pitch Black (Abyss Eye) booster boxes are trading around $260 on TCG Player and eBay pre-orders, up from roughly $250 on May 23rd; MSRP through Pokemon Center is $161 for a booster box and $60 for an ETB. 02:38
- The Mega Darkrai special art rare (number 114) from Abyss Eye launched near $600 on the Japanese market and has settled to a current market price of around $554, with a PSA 10 copy currently at auction for $1,500 with 41 copies graded and 40 hitting PSA 10. 04:31
- The Kanto starter promos show strong graded comps: Charmander PSA 10 averaging $587 on the last five sales; Bulbasaur PSA 10 averaging $514 after a buyout pushed it from $23 to $44 before settling around $37; Squirtle PSA 10 averaging $470. 14:54
Recommendations
AVOIDDo not buy Pitch Black booster boxes or Pokemon Center ETBs from TCG Player pre-orders at current prices near $600, as sellers have not secured stock and prices will drop significantly at release on July 17th. 03:16
AVOIDWait before buying early graded Japanese Abyss Eye singles, especially with PSA discontinuing value tiers, as prices are elevated and the high gem rate means supply of PSA 10s will grow. 06:00
View Source → YouTube
From Top 10 Pokemon
Jun 11, 2026 · 8m 00s
Investment Thesis
Top 10 Pokemon surveys roughly a dozen graded cards that have surged in value over the past one to six weeks, spanning Crown Zenith, Celebrations, Brilliant Stars, XY Evolutions, and Sun and Moon Team Up. Highlights include the Pikachu and Zekrom GX nearly quadrupling after a 30th-anniversary reprint announcement, and several Team Up alt arts posting 60-80% gains.
Datapoints
- Crown Zenith Giratina VSTAR PSA 10 rose from roughly $580 in early May to over $800, with recent sales at $800 and $860. 01:23
- Sun and Moon Team Up Pikachu and Zekrom GX PSA 10 jumped from $266-$278 in late May to over $1,000, with sales at $1,126 and $1,275, attributed almost entirely to a 30th-anniversary reprint announcement on the Pokemon website. 07:00
- XY Evolutions reverse holo Charizard PSA 10 nearly doubled from roughly $1,000 last month to sales of $1,875 and $2,025; the Gengar and Mimikyu GX Alt Art from Team Up surged from $5,100 to as high as $9,000 PSA 10 within two weeks. 05:43
Recommendations
SELLMisty's Determination full-art trainer from Unified Minds if you own a copy, as it has crossed $1,000 in recent sales after sitting at $760 last month. 04:33
View Source → YouTube
Jun 09, 2026 · 10m 42s
Investment Thesis
Top 10 Pokemon reviews 10 cards that peaked during the 2020-2021 boom and never fully recovered. The list spans three Charizard VMAXs from Darkness Ablaze, Champion's Path, and Shining Fates; Amazing Rares from Shining Fates; the Celebrations Classic Collection Blastoise holo; the 25th Anniversary Chikorita McDonald's promo; the Evolutions Charizard PSA 9; the Champion's Path Charizard V promo; and the Pikachu VMAX rainbow rare from Vivid Voltage.
Datapoints
- The Charizard VMAX from Darkness Ablaze peaked at $500-$555 PSA 10 in late 2020, crashed to ~$41 in 2024, and now sells at auction for ~$144 with buy-it-now around $175. Its PSA 10 pop is 23,326 out of 32,209 graded, reflecting high supply that has suppressed recovery. 01:33
- The Pikachu VMAX rainbow rare from Vivid Voltage sold for $1,175-$1,224 PSA 10 in early 2021, dropped to ~$137 in 2024, and has since recovered to only ~$400 at most recent auction. 09:31
- The Charizard V Black Star promo from Champion's Path ETBs now holds the largest PSA 10 population on this list at 50,419 out of 89,435 graded; it fell from ~$185 in 2021 to ~$15 in 2023 and currently sells for ~$94-$100. 08:40
View Source → YouTube
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Disclaimers
This week: 31 videos across 10 channels. Browse the public archive at tcgcardinvestor.com.
Sponsorship enquiries or feedback: hello@tcgcardinvestor.com
Creation of this newsletter is assisted by AI and may contain mistakes. Always verify each claim against the source video before acting on any recommendation.
This report is editorial commentary based on publicly-available content from independent creators. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or collectible, or a recommendation of any particular allocation. Trading-card markets are speculative, illiquid, and subject to material price swings driven by reprint cycles, grading-population changes, and shifts in collector sentiment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Ratings (BUY / HOLD / SELL / AVOID) reflect the cited creator's view at the timestamp linked, not the publisher's view. Citation timestamps deep-link to the moment in the source video where the claim is made.
Compiled 2026-06-13 13:09 · TCG Card Investor · Editorial digest, not investment advice
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