TCG Card Investor  ·  Weekly Briefing

TCG Card Investor

Weekly market intelligence on the Pokemon TCG

Vol. 2026 · Issue No. 05  ·  May 16 – 23, 2026

Hey friend, welcome to the hobby.

The Big Story

A tactile pack-selection technique spreading on TikTok lets buyers go 10-for-10 on hits by feeling the back three cards, and loose packs are now effectively compromised inventory. Distributors like Southern Hobby are so dry on Pokemon product that even veteran stores with official accounts are sourcing entirely from private collection buyouts at 80 cents on the dollar. Destined Rivals booster boxes crossed $700 before their first birthday, Phantasmal Flames sits at $500, and not a single sealed box from the Sun and Moon through Scarlet and Violet eras has failed to beat MSRP.

Key Market Trends

1.Distributor drought levels the playing field and forces collection buyouts as primary sourcing. Multiple creators confirm that established distributors including Southern Hobby have effectively no Pokemon allocation, with even veteran stores receiving as little as one case per new set. The practical result is that all sellers, new and experienced alike, are sourcing primarily by buying private collections at 75-80% of market value. One operator reported over $600,000 in collection buyouts, with individual deals ranging from $5,000 to six figures.
PokeNE 04:13  ·  PokeNE 03:01  ·  The Poke Plumber 10:41
2.Chaos Rising booster boxes expected to hold above $225, with broad consensus on a $250-$300 floor. Across multiple channels, Chaos Rising booster boxes are seen holding in the $225-$260 range post-release, with AnonTCG citing a $250-$260 floor and no expectation of a drop near $200. Nostalgia Nomics and It Was Never A Phase Cards both point to the set's strong release-day sales and the Mega Greninja chase card as structural supports, drawing comparisons to Twilight Masquerade, which was dismissed at launch and now trades near $400.
AnonTCG 18:19  ·  Nostalgia Nomics 04:31  ·  It Was Never A Phase Cards 02:28  ·  The Poke Plumber 04:59
3.Older Scarlet and Violet sets outperforming Prismatic Evolutions; popular does not equal best-performing. Both Alpha Investments and AnonTCG independently show that sets like Obsidian Flames, Paradox Rift, Stellar Crown ETBs (up 92%), and Shrouded Fable (up 98%) have outperformed Prismatic Evolutions on a percentage basis since its release. Prismatic Evolutions ETBs launched around $80-$90 and now sit at $150-$200 despite multiple reprints, while less-hyped products with tighter print runs have delivered stronger returns with less competition.
Alpha Investments 12:33  ·  AnonTCG 03:54  ·  Alpha Investments 51:57
4.Pack-selection and pack-weighing techniques are compromising loose product integrity. The Poke Plumber flagged a tactile hit-detection method circulating on TikTok and Instagram that allows buyers to identify hits by feeling the back three cards of a pack, with videos showing 10-for-10 success rates. This follows longstanding concerns about pack weighing. Both creators warn that loose packs and booster bundles now carry significant risk of having hits pre-removed, and that sealed booster boxes and cases may rise in price as a result.
The Poke Plumber 09:00  ·  AnonTCG 21:42
5.PSA grading backlog is constraining slab supply and extending wait times across all tiers. Nostalgia Nomics and The Poke Plumber both note that PSA grading wait times are being pushed out further, with The Poke Plumber reporting PSA is only processing express orders at night. Collect Pokemon adds that the resulting slab scarcity is keeping PSA 10 prices elevated, with extreme PSA 9-to-10 multiples (Van Gogh Pikachu at $1,000 PSA 9 versus $3,000 PSA 10) signaling demand that outstrips graded supply.
Nostalgia Nomics 04:58  ·  The Poke Plumber 10:46  ·  Collect Pokemon 13:18
6.Every sealed booster box from Sun and Moon through Scarlet and Violet has appreciated above MSRP. Nostalgia Nomics and Ketchum All Collectibles both assert that no sealed booster box from the modern era has failed to beat its retail price, with some sets up hundreds to over 1,000 percent. Destined Rivals boxes have already hit $700 before their first birthday, 151 Pokemon Center ETBs have tripled in 12 months to $1,000-$1,500, and Ketchum All Collectibles reports roughly 100% compound annual growth across his first two sealed-product pallets.
Nostalgia Nomics 37:44  ·  Ketchum All Collectibles 03:08  ·  Nostalgia Nomics 42:18

Consensus Calls

BUYChaos Rising booster boxes at or near MSRP ($160 via Best Buy invite or release-morning retail) or in the low-to-mid $200s on secondary market, with multiple creators citing a floor above $200 and a likely $250-$300 settling range.
BUYOlder Scarlet and Violet sets (Obsidian Flames, Paradox Rift, SV1-SV6) over new high-priced releases, as these products have absorbed reprint risk and have demonstrated stronger percentage returns than Prismatic Evolutions since its launch.
BUYBlack Bolt and White Flare ETBs and sealed product while still accessible, as multiple creators cite the $300-$500 chase cards (Victini, Reshiram, Zekrom) and no announced reprint as catalysts for a significant price increase.
AVOIDAvoid buying loose packs or booster bundles given widespread pack-selection and pack-weighing techniques that make it likely hits have already been removed from loose product.

If you found this useful, forward to a fellow collector or investor. Sharing helps the briefing reach the right audience.

Quote of the Week

“Not a single sealed booster box from the Sun and Moon, Sword and Shield, or Scarlet and Violet eras has failed to appreciate above its retail MSRP.”

— Nostalgia Nomics  ·  37:44

Section 01

Market Commentary

Per-creator notes from market-commentary channels. Each section reflects one channel's published view; consensus across all channels is summarized in the briefing above.

From Alpha Investments

Worlds Largest - $17 Million in Pokemon Scarlet Violet

May 22, 2026  ·  29m 36s

Investment Thesis

Rudy reveals what he claims is the world's largest known sealed Scarlet and Violet inventory, built over roughly three and a half years by buying unpopular product when nobody wanted it. He argues that chasing hot new releases like Mega Evolution sets at $500 a booster box is poor risk management, and that older Scarlet and Violet sets carry far less downside than freshly printed product still in its print cycle.

Datapoints

  • Mega Evolution 2 booster boxes are currently selling for approximately $500, despite widespread skepticism at launch that the set only had one good card. 03:09
  • Paradox Rift booster boxes were bought out and spiked from $250 to $350, retraced to $275 after holders listed supply, then recovered back above $300. 08:24
  • Ascended Heroes ETBs purchased at roughly $125 were reselling for $180 to $190, representing approximately 30% net gains in 30 to 90 days for those who flipped. 11:00

Recommendations

BUYOlder Scarlet and Violet sets (SV1 through SV6) over new releases like Mega Evolution 2 or Mega Evolution 4, because print-run risk and reprint risk are already largely absorbed on aged product. 18:03
BUYPrismatic Evolutions special collection cards (SPCs) on any dip, as Rudy explicitly calls out dip-buying that product. 28:14

View Source  →  YouTube

Hasbro Confirms New Era of Magic

May 21, 2026  ·  1h 14m

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] Rudy argues that Pokemon (like Magic) has permanently shifted into a low-inventory, sell-out-on-release market cycle, confirmed by Hasbro's CEO. He contends that Prismatic Evolutions is over-hyped and over-printed, while older Scarlet and Violet sets and Sword and Shield sealed product represent the real opportunity. He estimates a 3-to-6-month window before the general public catches on to the new market structure.

Datapoints

  • Prismatic Evolutions is likely one of the weaker-performing Pokemon sets over the past year compared to other Scarlet and Violet sets and even the Mew (MEW) 151 era sets, despite being the most-hyped product in the market. 51:57
  • Rudy states Pokemon is running the same playbook as Wizards/Hasbro: no inventory held, everything blown out on release, with the structural change already in effect and the general public expected to catch on within 3 to 6 months. 1:11:43
  • Older Scarlet and Violet sealed boxes (SV1 through SV6) and Sword and Shield sets are available for $300 to $600 a box, with Rudy citing them as overlooked opportunities while attention is concentrated on Prismatic Evolutions. 42:59

Recommendations

BUYCrown Zenith, Pokemon 25th Anniversary Celebrations, Shrouded Fable, and Black and White sealed product instead of chasing Prismatic Evolutions, as Pokemon's resources and reprint focus are concentrated on Prismatic while older sets are neglected. 40:02
HOLDPrismatic Evolutions if you already have a position, but do not deploy fresh capital into it; Rudy says if the price drops he adds to his position but directs serious sealed investing toward sets before and after Prismatic in the release timeline. 41:16

View Source  →  YouTube

Magic The Gathering and Timmy's

May 18, 2026  ·  39m 14s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] Rudy argues investors confuse popular sets with best-performing ones, noting that older Scarlet Violet sets like Obsidian Flames and Paradox Rift have outperformed Prismatic Evolutions since its release. He warns that Pokemon is currently the most crowded trade in the market, with shell accounts and fake businesses competing for every box, and urges collectors to seek less-contested pockets of the market instead.

Datapoints

  • Prismatic Evolutions ETBs launched around $150, dipped to $120, recovered to $130-$140, and are now bouncing between $150 and $200 despite numerous reprints. 12:18
  • Older Scarlet Violet sets such as Obsidian Flames (SV03) and Paradox Rift (SV04) have outperformed Prismatic Evolutions on a percentage basis in the roughly 12 months since Prismatic Evolutions released. 12:33
  • Pokemon is described as the most crowded trade in the market, with thousands of shell accounts, fake businesses, and automated tools competing for single boxes at release. 30:43

Recommendations

BUYOlder Scarlet Violet sets (Obsidian Flames, Paradox Rift) over new releases like the Charizard set at $500 a box, as the older products offer better value and have demonstrated stronger percentage growth. 16:40
AVOIDAvoid chasing new Pokemon releases at inflated prices when older Sword and Shield and Scarlet Violet products from one to four years ago are available at comparatively lower prices with better growth track records. 16:44

View Source  →  YouTube

From Nostalgia Nomics

BIG MONEY Moving Into The POKEMON MARKET!?

May 22, 2026  ·  1h 5m

Investment Thesis

Nostalgia Nomics and Alex (Nostalgia Nomics channel) discuss the surge of institutional and capital-fund money entering the Pokemon market, arguing that every sealed booster box across Sword and Shield, Scarlet and Violet, and Sun and Moon eras has appreciated in value. They highlight intentional print scarcity as a driver, recap big price moves on sets like Evolving Skies and Destined Rivals, and note a Paldean Fates Bloodmoon Ursaluna Beckett Black Label sale at $236,000.

Datapoints

  • A Paldean Fates Bloodmoon Ursaluna PSA 10 is currently bidding around $3,100 with one day left, while a Beckett Black Label copy (pop 2) recently sold for $236,000. 11:20
  • According to the creator, not a single sealed booster box from the Sun and Moon, Sword and Shield, or Scarlet and Violet eras has failed to appreciate above its retail MSRP, with some sets gaining hundreds to over 1,000 percent. 37:44
  • Destined Rivals booster boxes, which were available around $300-$400 when new, have already traded up to $640, with the creator comparing its trajectory to Evolving Skies in the Sword and Shield era. 42:18

Recommendations

BUYSealed booster boxes from every new Pokemon set as a diversified long-term strategy, as the creator argues every box given two to four years has appreciated in value. 45:38

View Source  →  YouTube

Pokemon Has FINALLY FIXED The Supply Issues!

May 21, 2026  ·  11m 40s

Investment Thesis

Nostalgia Nomics argues the Pokemon Company has no incentive to fix supply shortages, using the new Mega Zygarde collection box as evidence. The box packs six Perfect Order packs and two Phantasmal Flames packs alongside a standard EX promo, which the creator sees as a cynical cash grab. He surveys current booster box prices across multiple sets to show supply constraints are worsening, not improving, and predicts prices will continue climbing in 2026.

Datapoints

  • Destined Rivals and Phantasmal Flames booster boxes are trading at approximately $700 and $500 respectively, with no reprint announced. 05:12
  • Stellar Crown booster boxes are selling for $350 or more; Shroud of Fable ETBs are around $140; Prismatic Evolutions ETBs remain around $170 despite continued supply. 06:44
  • Mega Evolution booster boxes are approaching $325 and becoming scarce; Phantasmal Flames packs are $450-$500 per box; Black and White (Scarlet Violet block) packs are already at $145 each. 07:29

View Source  →  YouTube

The Pokemon Hobby HIVE MIND Got It Wrong!?

May 20, 2026  ·  16m 11s

Investment Thesis

Nostalgia Nomics pushes back on the Pokemon hobby hive mind, arguing that Chaos Rising outperformed community expectations based on his stream sales data. He contextualizes current box and card prices against Sword and Shield era benchmarks, contending that today's elevated price levels are a structural market shift rather than a bubble, and predicts Chaos Rising booster boxes will settle in the high $200 to $300 range.

Datapoints

  • Chaos Rising had the second-best per-pack opening night and third-best total opening-night sales on the creator's stream, trailing only Destined Rivals and Ascended Heroes. 03:10
  • Current market price benchmarks: Perfect Order booster boxes at approximately $225, Phantasmal Flames boxes at approximately $450, with the Phantasmal Flames Charizard at approximately $800 and the Perfect Order Meowth top hit at approximately $200. 09:37
  • During the Sword and Shield era, booster boxes released at $90 to $120, with top hits such as Umbreon VMAX, Gengar VMAX, and Mewtwo V from Crown Zenith all trading under $200 raw, illustrating how card and box prices are relative to prevailing market conditions. 09:02

Recommendations

BUYChaos Rising booster boxes, which the creator expects to settle in the high $200 to $300 range based on its position between Perfect Order ($225) and Phantasmal Flames ($450). 08:42

View Source  →  YouTube

CHAOS RISING Is A PROBLEM!

May 19, 2026  ·  11m 13s

Investment Thesis

Chaos Rising had one of the strongest release-night pack-opening performances the creator has seen, outselling Phantasmal Flames, Mega Evolution base set, Journey Together, and Ascended Heroes on their respective release days. Drawing parallels to Twilight Masquerade, which was similarly dismissed and now sits near $400 a box, the creator argues Chaos Rising is underestimated and expects it to stabilize well above $200, driven by the Mega Greninja chase card.

Datapoints

  • Chaos Rising sold more pack units on release day than Phantasmal Flames, Mega Evolution base set, Journey Together, and Ascended Heroes each did on their respective release days. 00:24
  • Chaos Rising booster boxes are pre-ordering at roughly $225 to $240 on eBay, with TCGplayer showing approximately $258 (restricted to certified hobby shops for pre-orders). 04:31
  • Twilight Masquerade booster boxes, a set widely dismissed at launch due to a weak set list perception, are now trading near $377 to $400, making it the fourth most expensive Scarlet and Violet era box and close to overtaking Obsidian Flames for third place. 07:14

Recommendations

BUYChaos Rising booster boxes if you can find them in the low-to-mid $200s, as the creator believes the floor is above $200 and the set could stabilize at $250 or higher. 09:21
BUYRush-grade any mint Mega Greninja pulls from Chaos Rising, as the creator expects the graded card to command a high multiple and likely run to new highs after an initial post-release correction. 10:48

View Source  →  YouTube

Pokemon Market CRASHOUT RANT!

May 18, 2026  ·  22m 25s

Investment Thesis

Nostalgia Nomics delivers a wide-ranging market rant arguing that Pokemon prices have become nearly impossible to rationalize: Shroud of Fable ETBs at $140, Paldea Evolved boxes crossing $500, and PSA 10 multiples on easy-to-grade modern cards reaching historic highs. He wrestles with whether to take profits at all-time highs when there is nowhere obvious to redeploy capital, ultimately landing on holding while acknowledging peace-of-mind selling is valid for over-leveraged collectors.

Datapoints

  • Shroud of Fable ETBs are selling at $140, while Black Bolt and White Flare ETBs sit at $135-$140 despite containing chase cards valued at $300-$500 (red Victini, Reshiram and Zekrom); Black Bolt and White Flare packs are trading at $14-$15 each. 00:55
  • Paldea Evolved booster boxes have crossed $500, with the Magikarp special illustration rare approaching $5,000 in PSA 10; the Umbreon VMAX, a 1-in-18,900-pack pull from a nearly $3,000 booster box, grades out at a similar or lower PSA 10 price than the Magikarp. 02:52
  • PSA grading wait times are being pushed out further, constraining slab supply and keeping prices elevated; mid-era booster boxes have effectively disappeared from eBay, TCG Player, and major secondary-market platforms. 04:58

Recommendations

HOLDKeep Pokemon investments deployed rather than moving to cash, as selling into all-time highs means eating transaction fees and likely missing further upside with no clear redeployment target. 08:32
SELLTrim Pokemon holdings for peace-of-mind reasons if you feel over-leveraged or overweighted in your portfolio, even if it may not be the mathematically optimal financial decision. 21:18

View Source  →  YouTube

From AnonTCG

This week's Pokémon, Magic the Gathering, One Piece and other TCG Distribution Update!

May 18, 2026  ·  28m 48s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] AnonTCG's weekly distribution update includes a brief Pokemon segment covering Mega Evolution Chaos Rising price floors, stalled Perfect Order wave two booster box supply, lighter-than-expected Mega Greninja premium collection allocations, and a surge in sleeve booster box volume at distribution. The creator sees the set holding strong and flags a busy product calendar through July.

Datapoints

  • Mega Evolution Chaos Rising booster boxes are holding at $250-$260; the creator does not expect them to drop anywhere near $200, with ETBs expected to bottom around $80 and booster bundles around $50-$55. 18:19
  • Perfect Order wave two booster boxes have not arrived at distribution; the creator believes The Pokemon Company is deliberately holding them back to avoid flooding the market and tanking prices. 19:12
  • Mega Greninja premium collection allocations are coming in lighter than Mega Zigzagoon, suggesting tighter supply for that product. 21:42

Recommendations

BUYPerfect Order ETB cases at $700 per case, citing Journey Together ETBs as a comparable that nearly doubled from their $80 release price to roughly $135. 20:00

View Source  →  YouTube

Buying the "Best" Pokémon sets doesn't always equate to Set performance.

May 17, 2026  ·  20m 01s

Investment Thesis

AnonTCG argues that buying the most popular Pokemon sets is not always the best investment strategy. Using one-year return data, he shows that reprinted sets like Surging Sparks ETBs (up 8%) and Twilight Masquerade boxes (up 40%) have lagged behind unloved, low-print-run products like Stellar Crown ETBs (up 92%), Shrouded Fable (up 98%), and Journey Together ETBs (up 78%), which have outperformed even Destined Rivals booster boxes in some cases.

Datapoints

  • Surging Sparks booster boxes are up 21.75% over the last year, substantially underperforming the broader Pokemon market due to heavy reprint supply creating a price ceiling around $275. 03:54
  • Destined Rivals booster boxes are up 146% in the last year, but liquidity is thin: TCGPlayer is moving only around five boxes per day with 186 listed, and the $650-plus price point is making buyers skittish. 09:20
  • Journey Together ETBs are up 78% in the last year, selling six units per day on TCGPlayer, despite being largely ignored by YouTube creators at launch when they were priced around $60-65. 12:05

Recommendations

BUYStellar Crown ETBs and Shrouded Fable booster boxes as lower-downside alternatives to high-priced sets, given their 92% and 98% one-year returns respectively and tightening supply. 18:51
BUYPrismatic Evolutions ETB cases during the TCGPlayer Mayhem sale to capture the 10-13% cashback discount, bringing effective cost to roughly $620 per case. 13:38
BUYPrismatic Evolutions booster boxes if the second wave hits and smaller stores dump inventory at $165-180, as the creator expects boxes to reach $300 by year-end given overall supply running 10-15% below prior sets. 14:48

View Source  →  YouTube

From Collect Pokemon

Chaos Rising - don't miss out!

May 22, 2026  ·  17m 13s

Investment Thesis

Collect Pokemon uses a $10,000 hypothetical to compare three sealed-product strategies: buying six cases of Chaos Rising booster boxes at roughly $270 each, buying 58 Ascended Heroes Elite Trainer Boxes at $170 each, or buying 150 First Partner boxes at $60 each to grade Kanto starter sets. The creator argues against diversification for experienced investors and expresses skepticism about modern sets as investments, preferring First Partner boxes for their grading upside.

Datapoints

  • Chaos Rising booster boxes are priced at approximately $270, meaning $10,000 buys roughly six cases (36 individual booster boxes). 07:36
  • Ascended Heroes Elite Trainer Boxes are priced at approximately $170 each; $10,000 buys roughly 58 of them. If they perform like 151 Elite Trainer Boxes (currently around $600 after 3 years), the $10,000 investment would convert to approximately $34,800. 08:01
  • Lost Origin booster boxes are currently sitting at approximately $750 each; if Chaos Rising reached that level, 36 boxes purchased for $10,000 would sell for roughly $27,000. 11:37

Recommendations

BUYFirst Partner boxes at roughly $60 each, grade Kanto starter sets through PSA, and target a potential $10,000 per graded set return within approximately one year. 08:11
AVOIDAvoid buying modern sets like Chaos Rising or Ascended Heroes at retail prices if you are an experienced investor, as the creator does not consider them strong investments relative to alternatives. 01:25

View Source  →  YouTube

There is simply not enough PSA 10 slabs to go around

May 20, 2026  ·  15m 28s

Investment Thesis

Collect Pokemon argues that PSA 10 supply is structurally constrained while demand has grown from three new buyer categories: card-show vendors, rip-and-ship operators using graded cards as prizes, and digital-rip pools. He observes that booster box prices have stagnated as a result, and uses the PSA 9 vs. PSA 10 price gap as a signal to distinguish genuine collector demand from digital-rip-driven speculation.

Datapoints

  • The Van Gogh Pikachu PSA 9 is sitting at around $1,000 while the PSA 10 is at approximately $3,000, meaning the PSA 9 trades at roughly one-third of the PSA 10 price. 13:18
  • Evolving Skies booster boxes have been rangebound at $2,500 to $2,700 for an extended period, and Fusion Strike has been stagnant near $1,000, with the creator attributing the lack of upward movement to buyers preferring digital rips over opening sealed product. 12:38
  • The CP6 Pikachu PSA 10 is priced around $700 while the PSA 9 is approximately $70, a 10x gap the creator interprets as a sign that demand is driven by digital-rip pool operators rather than genuine collectors. 13:41

View Source  →  YouTube

The Golden Era in collecting and investing

May 19, 2026  ·  20m 46s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] CollectPokemon argues that 2025-2026 is the golden era for Pokemon TCG collecting and investing, citing faster price appreciation cycles compared to the 5-year waits he experienced with sets like Generations and Champion's Path. He uses Prismatic Evolutions, Phantasmal Flames, and Ascended Heroes ETBs as examples of products that doubled in months, and credits modern consignment services, auction platforms, and tracking apps for making flipping far easier than a decade ago.

Datapoints

  • Prismatic Evolutions Elite Trainer Boxes launched around $80-$90 and rose to approximately $150-$160, representing a roughly 80% gain within a short window. 14:53
  • Phantasmal Flames Elite Trainer Boxes were available around $70-$80 and have since risen to approximately $150, roughly doubling in price. 15:08
  • Evolving Skies booster boxes have been stagnant at around $2,000 for approximately one to two years with little movement. 11:39

Recommendations

BUYAscended Heroes Elite Trainer Boxes at current prices, as the creator projects an approximately 80% gain toward the $200 range based on the pattern seen with Prismatic Evolutions and Phantasmal Flames. 15:22

View Source  →  YouTube

Time to rethink your grading play

May 17, 2026  ·  11m 07s

Investment Thesis

Collect Pokemon argues that PSA grading economics have shifted: low-pop common Japanese cards (CP6 Charizard Spirit Link, CP6 Pikachu, Bulbasaur with hidden Pikachu silhouette) are fetching $600-$700 graded, but artificial scarcity will erode as bulk submissions flood in. He recommends using PSA's $65 tier for cards where the PSA 9 already sells around $250, and is trimming First Partner box exposure now that prices have climbed past $60.

Datapoints

  • CP6 Charizard Spirit Link (a common, non-holo card) is selling for approximately $600 at PSA 10. 01:00
  • CP6 common Pikachu is selling for approximately $700 at PSA 10, despite a raw cost of under $0.50. 01:17
  • A Bulbasaur card featuring a faint Pikachu silhouette on the reverse is selling for $650 at PSA 10, exceeding the Charmander equivalent. 04:25

Recommendations

BUYUse PSA's $65 grading tier for cards where the PSA 9 already sells around $250 on the open market, to capture faster turnaround while the market holds. 07:01
SELLGrade and sell high-pop common Japanese cards (such as CP6 Spirit Links and Pikachus) at PSA 10 prices now, as the creator believes artificial scarcity will collapse once bulk submissions return en masse. 04:00
SELLTrim First Partner box positions above $60 per box; the creator is no longer adding and plans to hold cash for anticipated 30th anniversary product opportunities. 09:17

View Source  →  YouTube

From Ketchum All Collectibles

Pokemon Investors are Getting Dumber (Why I Still Am Investing)

May 18, 2026  ·  37m 07s

Investment Thesis

The creator reviews his multi-pallet Pokemon sealed-product investment strategy, reporting roughly 100% compound annual growth rate across his first two pallets, driven largely by 151 product. He warns against irrational exuberance, noting that 151 Pokemon Center ETBs have tripled in 12 months, Destined Rivals booster boxes have already hit $700 before their first birthday, and that future gains on new sets are increasingly being pulled forward.

Datapoints

  • 151 Pokemon Center ETBs have tripled (3x) in the past 12 months, currently priced around $1,000 to $1,500. 03:08
  • Destined Rivals booster boxes are already at $700 before the set's first birthday, a price level the creator considers a sign of gains being pulled forward rather than earned over time. 23:07
  • Evolving Skies loose booster packs rose approximately 50% over a 6-month period while booster boxes of the same set rose less than 10%, showing ETBs and loose packs significantly outperforming boxes in recent market action. 22:51

Recommendations

AVOIDThe creator explicitly states he would never intentionally short the Pokemon market and cautions strongly against leveraging up or treating any set's price appreciation as guaranteed, advising investors to size positions only to what they can afford to lose. 17:46

View Source  →  YouTube

From PokeNE

Stop B*tching and Work - Build a Pokemon Card Business

May 21, 2026  ·  19m 02s

Investment Thesis

PokeNE delivers a motivational rant aimed at aspiring Pokemon card business owners, arguing that waiting for distributor access (e.g. Southern Hobby) is a losing strategy. He contends the current bull market is the easiest time to make money, and outlines three accessible paths: buying collections at 75-80% and reselling, running rip-and-ship streams, and building a YouTube channel around the hobby.

Datapoints

  • When major distributors like Southern Hobby previously reopened to new accounts (2021-2022), sets including Fusion Strike, Chilling Reign, and Battle Styles were available from distribution at prices higher than TCGPlayer secondary market, making distribution access unprofitable at the time. 02:54
  • The creator states that even established stores are currently receiving the lowest allocation of booster boxes they have ever gotten, with some operators receiving only one case per new set release. 04:13
  • Collections can typically be purchased from private sellers at 75% of market value for ancillary product and 80% for flagship products such as booster boxes, ETBs, UPCs, and SPCs. 09:01

Recommendations

BUYCollections from private sellers at 75-80% of market value and resell on platforms like TCGPlayer or Shopify for a margin, rather than waiting for distributor access. 05:12
SELLPokemon card inventory worth $200,000 or more at 85% of market value if you have pressing real-life financial needs, rather than holding illiquid card assets. 17:15

View Source  →  YouTube

Your Pokemon Card Business is SUFFERING. Let Me Help

May 20, 2026  ·  23m 11s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] Creator PokeNE argues that running a sustainable Pokemon card business requires building an audience through content creation rather than relying solely on conventions or TCG Player/eBay fees. He uses DJ's Poke Center as a case study, noting the creator sold six figures in product by buying collections and making content, and recently secured a distributor relationship.

Datapoints

  • Selling on TCG Player or eBay without an established audience costs sellers 15% in fees, eroding margins for smaller Pokemon card resellers. 02:23
  • DJ's Poke Center, a newer Pokemon card content creator, sold over six figures in product within his first year by buying collections and making content, and has since secured a distributor. 03:17
  • Buying Pokemon collections at 75-80% of market value and reselling on eBay still yields a small margin, but requires additional sales channels such as Facebook Marketplace, Cash App, Venmo, or a Shopify/Wix storefront to be viable. 03:33

View Source  →  YouTube

Pokémon Business Tips - Listen or Go BROKE

May 18, 2026  ·  28m 55s

Investment Thesis

PokeNE's Brian delivers a business-strategy lecture aimed at Pokemon card sellers at every experience level. He covers three tiers of sellers, argues against pricing below market, explains why inventory should be repriced based on replacement cost rather than purchase price, advocates for buying collections at 80% as a primary sourcing strategy while distributors are dry, and warns that convention vending is not a scalable business model.

Datapoints

  • Established distributors like Southern Hobby are currently so low on Pokemon product that even veteran sellers with official distributor relationships are effectively at the same sourcing level as newer sellers, with everyone primarily buying collections to restock. 03:01
  • Brian's operation has done approximately $600,000 in collection buyouts, with individual deals ranging from $5,000-$7,000 on the low end, $10,000-$25,000 in the mid range, and at least one deal exceeding six figures from a single seller. 18:18
  • When buying sealed Pokemon collections, Brian pays 80% of market for flagship products (booster boxes, bundles, ETBs, UPCs, SPs) and 75% for ancillary products (tins, EX boxes, decks), and only buys sealed, never loose packs, singles, or slabs. 14:23

Recommendations

BUYAcquire sealed Pokemon collections at 80% of market value as a primary sourcing strategy while official distributors remain out of stock, targeting established sellers who want quick cash. 12:31
HOLDReprice remaining Pokemon inventory to current replacement cost rather than original purchase price as soon as your supplier quotes a higher price, even if existing stock was bought cheaper. 08:16

View Source  →  YouTube

From The Poke Plumber

Pokémon Reprints Are Coming?! Everything you need to know right now!

May 22, 2026  ·  33m 29s

Investment Thesis

The Poke Plumber covers the current reprint drought, arguing Pokemon is flooding the market with Prismatic Evolutions product while neglecting booster box reprints for sets like Black Bolt White Flare, Destined Rivals, and Phantasmal Flames. He flags Surging Sparks as an undervalued entry point, calls vintage boxes potentially topped out, and urges collectors to hold or add to Prismatic Evolutions Special Premium Collections despite recent price drops.

Datapoints

  • Prismatic Evolutions Special Premium Collection (SPC) cases have dropped approximately $150 since their peak, with per-pack prices rising even as case prices fall. 03:01
  • Black Bolt White Flare booster boxes have roughly doubled or tripled from the $700-per-case price the creator paid at launch; Pokemon Center bundles for both sets are currently available around $500-$600. 08:52
  • Vintage sealed boxes (Neo, EX era, Rocket era) are showing signs of topping out, with multiple copies appearing simultaneously on eBay and PSA 10 vintage singles showing extreme volatility, with some listings 20-30% below recent all-time highs finding no buyers. 12:44
  • Surging Sparks booster boxes remain one of the few modern sealed products priced below $300, held back by prior reprints including an Elite Trainer Box reprint and Twilight Masquerade Elite Trainer Box reprints. 29:00

Recommendations

BUYBlack Bolt White Flare sealed product (ETBs, bundle cases, Victini boxes) before a potential reprint window closes, as the creator is personally continuing to accumulate. 07:36
BUYSurging Sparks booster boxes at current sub-$300 prices as the creator views this as the cheapest modern entry point with significant upside once supply normalizes. 12:05
HOLDPrismatic Evolutions SPCs through the current price dip and consider dollar-cost averaging with additional cases, as the creator believes the product has strong long-term potential once supply dries up. 03:23

View Source  →  YouTube

The Pokémon Hobby Just Got Even Worse! Are we DOOMED?!

May 20, 2026  ·  20m 08s

Investment Thesis

The Poke Plumber covers several Pokemon TCG market topics: Chaos Rising booster boxes are currently priced around $265 on TCGplayer but he expects them to settle near $225-$230; a new pack-selection method spreading on TikTok is raising concerns about loose pack integrity; and he argues sealed product prices could rise as a result. He also shares a bullish long-term view on Prismatic Evolutions SPCs and Sword and Shield era product.

Datapoints

  • Chaos Rising booster boxes are listed at approximately $265 on TCGplayer at release; the creator expects them to settle around $225-$230, similar to but slightly above Perfect Order which sits at roughly $200 a box. 04:59
  • A new pack-selection technique circulating on TikTok and Instagram allows buyers to feel the back three cards of a pack and identify hits, with videos showing people going 10-for-10 on pulls; the creator warns this could drive sealed booster box and case prices significantly higher as collectors avoid loose packs. 09:00
  • PSA is severely backlogged and reportedly only processing express orders at night, meaning value and bulk submission tiers face very long turnaround times. 10:46

Recommendations

BUYChaos Rising booster boxes at current release prices, as the creator believes the Greninja chase card and strong illustration rares will drive demand above initial expectations. 05:36
BUYPrismatic Evolutions SPCs on any further price dips, as the creator purchased 20 cases and views the long-term upside over five or more years as very strong despite a roughly $100-per-case drop since his purchase. 19:52
AVOIDAvoid buying loose packs or booster bundles, as widespread pack-weighing and the new tactile hit-detection method mean loose product carries significant risk of having hits already removed. 07:33

View Source  →  YouTube

These Pokémon Items Are About To EXPLODE! 💥

May 18, 2026  ·  19m 13s

Investment Thesis

The Poke Plumber highlights several sealed product opportunities he sees as undervalued or on the verge of price increases. Key focuses include Black Bolt White Flare packs rising on TCG Player, Ascended Heroes packs climbing past $13, Celebrations Ultra Premium Collections, and Surging Sparks booster boxes in the $200s. He also notes LGS supply shortages tied to an ongoing distributor dispute with Pokemon, keeping secondary market prices elevated.

Datapoints

  • Ascended Heroes packs have risen from $9 to over $13, with the creator suggesting supply may be constrained because Pokemon's printing focus has shifted to 30th anniversary product. 06:44
  • Surging Sparks booster boxes are currently selling in the $200s, with nearly all listings at $300 or above; vending machine restocks of loose boxes have been halted in many locations, adding a case premium. 12:15
  • Local game stores are unable to restock Pokemon product through distributors, forcing them to buy at secondary market prices; the creator attributes this to an ongoing dispute between the distributor and Pokemon, with product flowing primarily to big-box retailers instead. 10:41

Recommendations

BUYBlack Bolt White Flare ETBs and packs while still affordable, as the creator believes the set is on the verge of a significant price increase. 03:16
BUYSurging Sparks booster boxes in the $200s, which the creator calls a 'screaming buy' given vending machine halts and nearly all market listings already at $300 or above. 12:27
BUYCelebrations Ultra Premium Collections, as the creator purchased two at the show and believes the ceiling has not been reached, especially with 30th anniversary hype building. 06:03

View Source  →  YouTube

Section 02

Singles & Auction Prices

Latest singles and auction price changes from channels that track specific cards, eBay sales, and grading population shifts. Data-heavy by design; recommendations only where the creator made one.

From Danny Phantump

The TRUTH About Chaos Rising Pull Rates (GOATED SET)

May 22, 2026  ·  21m 08s

Investment Thesis

Danny Phantump breaks down Chaos Rising pull rates using data from 1,296 packs (36 booster boxes) opened across multiple sources. Key findings: roughly 15.5 hits per booster box, one special illustration rare per two boxes, and one mega hyper rare per approximately 1,000 packs. Notable anomalies include Greninja double rare appearing far more frequently than Cinccino, and Crobat illustration rare appearing only five times versus the expected range.

Datapoints

  • Across 1,296 packs (36 booster boxes) of Chaos Rising, the average hit rate was approximately 15.53 hits per booster box, consistent with other Mega Evolution block sets including Phantasmal Flames and Perfect Order, which also averaged 15 to 16 hits per box. 14:52
  • Chaos Rising illustration rare pull rate improved over the Scarlet and Violet era: players now get roughly 4 to 5 illustration rares per booster box (one per 8 to 9 packs), up from approximately 3 per box (one per 12 packs) during Scarlet and Violet. This rate has held consistent across the Mega Evolution block including Ascended Heroes. 16:06
  • The Chaos Rising mega hyper rare (gold Mega Greninja) appeared only once across 1,296 packs, consistent with the broader Mega Evolution block average of approximately one per 1,000 packs. One anecdotal report described three gold Greninjas pulled from just nine booster boxes, illustrating extreme variance. 13:14

View Source  →  YouTube

The Mega Charizard UPC is NO LONGER WORTH IT!

May 17, 2026  ·  23m 03s

Investment Thesis

Danny Phantump analyzes whether the Mega Charizard Ultra Premium Collection is still worth buying at current secondary market prices. After a roughly 42% price increase over three months, the sealed product now sells for approximately $233.61, which for the first time exceeds the total contents value of around $227.25. He concludes that buyers seeking to open the product are better off purchasing the individual pieces separately.

Datapoints

  • The Mega Charizard Ultra Premium Collection rose approximately 42% over three months, from a low of $148.33 around February 20-21 to approximately $233.61 at time of recording. 07:53
  • The total contents value of the Mega Charizard Ultra Premium Collection (18 packs across Phantom Forces, Mega Evolution, Destined Rivals, Journey Together, and Surging Sparks, plus promos and accessories) is approximately $227.25, up $53 over three months but now below the sealed product price of $233.61 for the first time. 20:44
  • The PSA 10 Mega Charizard promo card has a gem rate of 46.27% across 53,597 graded copies, with 24,803 returning PSA 10; the card is currently priced at approximately $315, down from a peak of around $450 in December. 11:47

Recommendations

BUYpurchase the individual pack and promo contents of the Mega Charizard Ultra Premium Collection separately on the secondary market rather than buying the sealed box, saving at least $6 and more if you skip accessories or the Oricorio promo. 22:17
AVOIDavoid buying the Mega Charizard Ultra Premium Collection at current secondary market prices if your intent is to open it, as the sealed product now costs more than purchasing all contents individually. 19:28

View Source  →  YouTube

From It Was Never A Phase Cards

Chaos Rising Price Trends: The Cards Everyone Is Watching

May 22, 2026  ·  21m 21s

Investment Thesis

On Chaos Rising release day, the creator surveys singles and sealed product pricing across the full set. The Mega Greninja SIR leads at roughly $500 after dropping from $600, while the Pokemon Center Early Trainer Box fell sharply to around $200. Most singles and sealed items are trending down on release morning, and the creator advises patience before buying most cards, flagging the Froakie/Frogadier/Greninja connected-art illustration rares and the Ampharos IR as personal targets at lower prices.

Datapoints

  • Mega Greninja SIR (number 116) opened with sales as high as $600 on TCG Player on release day and has already dropped roughly $100 to around $500, with lowest listings at $505-$520 and only four copies sold so far. 00:30
  • Chaos Rising Pokemon Center Early Trainer Box dropped from pre-release highs of $450-$500 to around $194-$220 on release morning, with the current market price showing $266 but lowest listings between $200 and $220. 02:43
  • Chaos Rising booster boxes peaked around $270 before release and dipped to roughly $230 on release morning before bouncing back toward $250, representing a smaller drop than anticipated. 04:16
  • The Froakie illustration rare (number 88) is down 43% from sales near $50 to a current market price of $31, with lowest listings at $27-$28 and over 200 copies already available on TCG Player on release morning. 12:55
  • The Mega Greninja ultra rare (number 100) dropped from a high of $58 to lowest listings in the $30 range on release morning, with 131 copies already listed on TCG Player. 12:00

Recommendations

AVOIDThe creator advises waiting one to three months before buying most Chaos Rising singles, as prices are still dropping on release day and more supply will hit the market as people open packs. 05:44
AVOIDStay away from the Mega Dragalge SIR for now, as it has the most supply of any SIR on TCG Player (62 copies listed) indicating weak demand and a likely continued price decline. 06:57
AVOIDAvoid buying the Mega Greninja ultra rare at current prices; the creator expects it to keep dropping given 131 copies already listed on release morning. 12:27

View Source  →  YouTube

Perfect Order Hits New All Time Highs?! Pokemon Market Update

May 21, 2026  ·  18m 50s

Investment Thesis

TJ reviews the Perfect Order set's market performance ahead of Chaos Rising's release. The top chase card, Meowth SAR, has hit a new all-time high of $200, up 25% from its pre-release price, while graded PSA 10 copies are selling for $1,100. Booster boxes and booster bundles are both trending up roughly 10-12% over the past month, though several SARs remain near all-time lows.

Datapoints

  • Perfect Order Meowth SAR (121) has reached a new all-time high of approximately $200, up 25% from its pre-release high of $160, with a PSA 10 copy selling for $1,100; 226 copies have been graded with 189 hitting PSA 10. 00:28
  • Perfect Order booster boxes are up around 10% over the past month to a current market price of $224, after dropping as low as $193 on May 12th; the Pokemon Company has not reprinted booster boxes for this set. 02:42
  • Perfect Order booster bundles are up approximately 11-12% in the past month to $43, from an all-time low of around $36-$37, while the standard Elite Trainer Box has bounced to around $71 after hitting an all-time low of $66. 14:06

Recommendations

AVOIDAvoid paying first-to-market PSA 10 prices on Perfect Order cards such as the Meowth SAR at $1,100 or the Mega Starmie SAR at $480, as these prices are expected to come down over time. 01:44
AVOIDWait on the Mega Starmie SAR (118) raw card, currently near its all-time low of $70, as the creator expects further price declines before buying. 11:08

View Source  →  YouTube

Pokemon Pitch Black ALL Secret Rares Revealed! Better Than Expected?!

May 20, 2026  ·  24m 17s

Investment Thesis

[Pokemon segment] The creator reviews all secret rares from Pitch Black (the English release of the Japanese set Abyss Eye, due July 17th) and speculates on older cards that may rise in value. Highlighted Pokemon include Morpeko, Darkrai, Chandelure, and Zoroark, with price data showing significant recent gains across multiple cards tied to those featured Pokemon.

Datapoints

  • The Darkrai Galarian Gallery card (Crown Zenith GG50) is up 124% over the past 3 months, now trading above $100 (around $105), compared to roughly $35 a year ago. 10:49
  • The Chandelure illustration rare from White Flare (card 103) is up 53% to around $62, at an all-time high, with only 16 copies currently listed on TCGPlayer. 12:18
  • The Zoroark VMAX from Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery (GG42) is up 152% over the past year, from around $10 to $26, with the Zoroark V alternate art from Chilling Reign (card 166) also up 37% to around $85. 15:21

View Source  →  YouTube

Ascended Heroes Just Gets Crazier... Pokemon Market Update

May 19, 2026  ·  21m 15s

Investment Thesis

TJ delivers a comprehensive 3-month performance update on Ascended Heroes, covering sealed product and singles. The Treekachu (card 276) has surged 137% to roughly $1,200 raw, with PSA 10s pulling back from a $4,700 peak to around $4,000. Pokemon Center ETBs have broken $500 and are tracking toward $725 based on listed-median signals. A handful of singles show minor pullbacks while sealed product broadly continues to climb.

Datapoints

  • The Treekachu (Pikachu SR #276) from Ascended Heroes is up 137% over the past 3 months to a current market price of approximately $1,200 raw, with the lowest credible listing at $1,475; PSA 10 copies peaked near $4,600-$4,700 in late April and have since pulled back to around $3,850-$4,000. 00:45
  • Ascended Heroes Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Boxes have broken $500, hitting a current market price of $519 with a most-recent sale of $535, representing a 115% gain from roughly $240 three months ago; the listed median sits at $725, which the creator views as the next price target. 07:01
  • Ascended Heroes standard Elite Trainer Boxes are at a 3-month high of $182, up 42% from approximately $104-$105 in early March, with the listed median at $200 and the lowest listings approaching $188-$190. 12:19

View Source  →  YouTube

Chaos Rising Dropping Online & In Store This Week! What To Expect

May 18, 2026  ·  20m 54s

Investment Thesis

Chaos Rising drops in stores and online Friday May 22nd. The creator covers sealed product pricing across TCG Player and eBay, noting pre-release inflation on TCG Player versus more accurate eBay comps, and reviews the top Greninja cards historically, including price performance over the past year for singles ranging from the new Mega Greninja chase card to older XY, Sun and Moon, and Sword and Shield era cards.

Datapoints

  • Pokemon Center ETBs for Chaos Rising are listed at $442–$485 on TCG Player pre-release due to restricted seller access, but are actually trading on eBay in the $200–$230 range; prices on TCG Player are expected to drop to a similar level on release morning (Friday May 22nd) when all sellers can list. 00:55
  • Chaos Rising booster boxes are currently around $240 on eBay and $260 on TCG Player pre-release, versus a Best Buy invite MSRP of $160; the creator notes booster boxes have not been reprinted, making them a historically solid sealed hold. 02:28
  • The Twilight Masquerade Greninja (card 214) is up 23% on the year, trading around $360 on TCG Player with a PSA 10 pop of 9,488 out of 21,193 graded; the Ash Greninja XY133 is up 190% year-over-year to around $81 raw, with only 25 PSA 10 copies out of over 2,000 graded, and a last PSA 10 sale of $4,700. 09:11

Recommendations

BUYChaos Rising booster boxes at MSRP via the Best Buy invite system ($160) or on release morning when TCG Player prices drop, given the lack of reprints and steady long-term appreciation of sealed booster boxes. 02:57
BUYChaos Rising sealed product at MSRP through Best Buy, Target, or Walmart on release morning (Friday May 22nd) rather than paying inflated pre-release secondary market prices. 18:44
AVOIDAvoid buying the Fennekin promo card from the standard Chaos Rising ETB at current pre-release prices around $20, as the creator expects it to drop post-release when supply increases. 06:55

View Source  →  YouTube

Best Pokemon Cards For Under $20 Right Now!

May 17, 2026  ·  21m 18s

Investment Thesis

It Was Never A Phase Cards runs through 20 Pokemon singles priced at $20 or under, documenting how broadly the market has risen over the past year. Cards from Crown Zenith, Obsidian Flames, Ascended Heroes, Destined Rivals, Silver Tempest, and several Japanese sets are highlighted, with most entries up 50-300% year-over-year and several approaching the $20 ceiling.

Datapoints

  • The Lucario VSTAR promo (Crown Zenith ETB, Sword & Shield 291) is up 97% over the past 3 months to a current market price of around $17; it was a $3-$4 card a year ago. 01:10
  • The Radiant Charizard (Crown Zenith, card 20) is up 328% on the year, rising from roughly $3 to $13-$14 currently. 03:49
  • The Gyarados ex (Scarlet & Violet base) experienced a buyout on May 15th, pushing the current market price to $16 from roughly $3-$4 a year ago (up 312%); the creator notes buyers should be cautious and check eBay for cheaper copies. 13:11

Recommendations

BUYThe Ninetales art rare (Japanese, Ruler of the Black Flame) at $16-$17, as the creator explicitly calls picking it up at that price 'not a bad play' and notes Japanese copies grade well. 16:31
AVOIDAvoid paying the spiked TCGPlayer price on the Gyarados ex (Scarlet & Violet base) following its May 15th buyout; check eBay instead for a cheaper copy. 13:11

View Source  →  YouTube

From Top 10 Pokemon

Top 10 EXPENSIVE Chaos Rising Pokemon Cards!

May 19, 2026  ·  8m 01s

Investment Thesis

Top 10 Pokemon breaks down the most expensive cards from Mega Evolution Chaos Rising ahead of its May 22nd release. The set contains 122 cards with 36 secret rares and is dominated by Greninja. Pre-release prices range from $31 for illustration rares up to $920 for the special illustration rare Mega Greninja EX, with Elite Trainer Boxes at $100 and booster boxes at $240.

Datapoints

  • Chaos Rising contains 122 total cards with 36 secret rares, making it a smaller set compared to recent releases. Pre-release ETBs are listed at around $100 and booster boxes at around $240. 00:24
  • The Mega Hyper Rare Greninja EX (gold hyper rare) sold twice in one day: once for $435 and again for $520, making it the second most expensive card in the set at pre-release. 04:44
  • The special illustration rare Mega Greninja EX is the most expensive card in Chaos Rising, selling in auction for around $760 and reaching as high as $920 at pre-release. 06:46

View Source  →  YouTube

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Disclaimers

This week: 30 videos across 10 channels. Browse the public archive at tcgcardinvestor.com.

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Creation of this newsletter is assisted by AI and may contain mistakes. Always verify each claim against the source video before acting on any recommendation.

This report is editorial commentary based on publicly-available content from independent creators. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or collectible, or a recommendation of any particular allocation. Trading-card markets are speculative, illiquid, and subject to material price swings driven by reprint cycles, grading-population changes, and shifts in collector sentiment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ratings (BUY / HOLD / SELL / AVOID) reflect the cited creator's view at the timestamp linked, not the publisher's view. Citation timestamps deep-link to the moment in the source video where the claim is made.

Compiled 2026-05-23 15:09  ·  TCG Card Investor  ·  Editorial digest, not investment advice